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Old 08-10-2008, 07:50 AM
 
1,917 posts, read 7,080,482 times
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Not in LI I don't. I saw that video segment on tv. It really applied more to these areas with numerous new developments, far away from the workforce, not so much LI (think NC).

LI is very different that we have no land to develop, and most who commute into Manhattan already use the LIRR. So the segment really doesn't apply to LI, moreso these states where land is sprawling and people would move far from the major cities to purchase the "American dream" of affordable single family suburbian housing.
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Old 08-10-2008, 07:55 AM
 
1,917 posts, read 7,080,482 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by totallyfrazzled View Post
Long Island is not a "typical" American suburb and that it very much has its own identity and can't be put in the same stereotype/classification as any other USA suburban area.
I agree with this, 100%.
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Old 08-10-2008, 08:11 AM
 
7,658 posts, read 19,098,498 times
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The only problem is that LI doesnt end at RT 110.

The LIRR aka Nassau County Railroad is a complete failure for the region.

Whats needed for Brookhaven is an Intermodal Transportation hub like the one stupidly constructed in Mineola and expanded express service to and from Eastern Long Island.

Robert Moses was wrong.

He never accounted for Exurbia.

I mean does Great Neck really need the service with the Subways inches away or does Brookhaven?

In the era of $4 a gallon gas Brookhaven is in dire need of better commuter/pedestrian/bicycle infrastructure if it is to thrive in the new economy.

Otherwise I can see the tumbleweeds blowing through the McMansions of Miller Place just like they did in 92.

Lest we forget.

CW
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Old 08-10-2008, 08:35 AM
 
Location: NY
1,416 posts, read 5,583,223 times
Reputation: 605
Quote:
Originally Posted by LauraC View Post
I'd be thinking people with one level ranch homes (3 bedrooms or less), no oil heat, would have no trouble selling their homes to retirees if that's the population shift.

And wouldn't retirees come back to Long Island to be near their city-living families if it was once again affordable to live on LI in retirement?

I'm guessing an exodus of working families to the cities/near the cities would probably cause suburban property tax to fall (if ever) or stay the same in suburbia - retirees don't need schools or lots of roads. They're also not a high crime demo so if they're the main demo left living in suburbia, you don't need a big police force. ..... It will also mean more businesses to pick up the tax burden which will again, give the retirees a break on taxes.
I respectfully disagree that LI will ever become a predominately senior-oriented locale, for several reasons:

* The ratio of existing ranch style homes (all on one level, best for handicap access) to other style homes is much lower than in many other states. Not like Florida or Arizona or California where ranches are far more the norm. It's not quite as bad Connecticut, where ranches seem to be scarcer than hen's teeth, but it's tough to find ranches on LI bigger than, say, 1500 sq ft.(btw, we were told recently by our plumbing/heating guy that on LI oil heated homes have always outnumbered gas-heated ones, and if you've ever tried to get gas lines into a neighborhood you know what a PITA that is. Although it's my opinion that ultimately there will be very little difference between the cost to heat a home via gas or oil .... the gas rates WILL rise.)

* The only place left to build new-construction over-55 communities is out east, which is also much further from conveniences.

* LI's mass transit options are not helpful to seniors who either cannot or prefer not to drive.

* In order for "more business" to come in to shoulder more of the current property tax burden, areas that are now residential would need to be rezoned for business/commercial. Sorry but IMO that will NEVER happen in existing residential areas in Nassau or Western Suffolk. The only chance of that happening is in eastern suffolk and the Forks, and good luck with that anywhere east of Riverhead. Most of the development on the Forks is residential and small-business (no big office/industrial parks like Woodbury, Melville, Hauppauge, etc) which has little impact on taxes. Certainly NOT enough to offset the increases in taxes from new residential construction requiring school expansion etc. Look at the current outcry over the proposed development of the Calverton property as a resort, for example. Nope... you can't rezone residential in Nassau and Western Suffolk into large-scale tax-reducing new business, and the majority of people who live in eastern Suffolk will fight to keep things residential/farmland/parkland.

IMO there will never be a permanent demographic shift on LI toward a senior population (like in Florida). There will be more of them in the next three decades simply because we Baby Boomers are coming into our sixties and even that shift will depend on how many of us decide to stay here vs. relocate. I definitely think that enough will choose to stay, to skew the demographics more toward seniors UNTIL (brutally honest) the majority of us start to die off. But will enough seniors from other areas choose to move to Long Island to keep that shift going? IMO not.
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Old 08-10-2008, 11:38 AM
 
1,058 posts, read 3,479,084 times
Reputation: 229
Great Posts. I'll try to respond concisely.

Quote:
The suburbs may be CHANGING! But they are not ENDING!
, Dexterguy.

I agree that the suburbs are definitely changing, but are they ending? That remains to be seen. I think we need to differentiate between the different types os suburbs. So how are some suburbs different thatn others. Well fortunately we have every type of suburb represented on our Island, this includes Queens as well.

Original Towns: These are not suburbs. They have the greatest chance of revival. They often are in natural settings with classic architecture. Not to mention railway stations and even old trolley line rails in the case of Northport. These places include: Port Jefferson, Patchogue, Amity Village, Bellport Village, Bay Shore, Port Washington, etc...

Early Suburbs: Forest Hills, Jamaica Estates, Garden City, East Williston, etc...These are classic suburbs developed before WWII. They are highly desirable places to live. The homes are well built. Each home is distinct often from the others, but all work together in harmony. These places will never die out because they are located near railway stations and are in walking distance often of a main street.

First Postwar suburbs built in the 1940s and 1950s. Found Mostly in Queens, Nassau and some parts of western Suffolk. Examples: Bayside, New Hye Park, most of Plainview, Commack, of course Levittown, Sunset City in North Babylon and many other neighborhoodss. These neighborhoods were often built on a large scale, but have the following characteristics; curved streets, sidewalks, homes are spaced appropriately, a local elementary school, giving the neighborhood its character. The homes are well built capes, ranches, and splits (except for the Levitt homes which are mostly junk, but the master planned neighborhoods are unique). These areas are often closer to parkways and state parklands. I think these areas will become moredesirable because they are closer to the city (shorter commutes) and were develped with a unifying suburban vision.

Second wave of postwar suburbia. By the late 1960s and 1970s Suburban growth begins to slow down as the baby boom ends and the firstwave of energy and inflation problems hit the U.S. Quite a bit of junk built during this time period. Developers cut corners such as using aluminum wiring instead of copper. Also, fewer planned developemnts. Fewer sidewalks and neighborhood parks. Lots of high ranches and splits in less desirable locations for commuting. Look at Deer Park, Selden, Ronkonkoma, etc.. Many of those Hiogh Ranches are being chopped up into multiple rentals. Thus, begins the downward spiral of the neighborhoods. Outlook is not good for these areas.

Quote:
Yeah, LI doesn't really have McMansion exurbs
. AlexisT

McMansion LI devoped post 1980s: I thinks Long Island's McMansion exurbs are mostly found east of route 110 in: Manorville, Rocky Point, Baiting Hollow, Ridge, Miller Place, Shoreham-Wading River, Center Moriches, East Moriches, etc... These areas are most vulnerable to fluctuations in energy prices and mortgage rates in my opinion. However, there are lots of infill areas that were developed since the 1980s all over using the McMansion style development as in Holbrook, or Summerfield in Holtsville, or along rte. 347, etc.. These homes are of questionable quality and will cost a fortune to heat. Also, the commuting options are often limited to using just the LIE.

Quote:
he's forgetting that LI doesn't really apply
, Andysocks

I don't disagree for the most part. BTW I just find the topic interesting for discussion and how it may or may not apply to LI and the rest of the U.S. LI is different as you stated and not as vulnerable as other suburban areas.

Also, let me hust say this. PEOPLE LIKE LIVING IN THE SUBURBS. As long as there are people who desire to live in the suburbs then suburbs will exist, but in what form remains to bee seen when costs are factored in.

Quote:
wouldn't retirees come back to Long Island to be near their city-living families
, LauraC

Not Likely. The rest of the United States is far cheaper than LI. Not much we can do about that.
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Old 08-10-2008, 12:01 PM
 
7,658 posts, read 19,098,498 times
Reputation: 1325
Default Proud to be McMansion free.

Actually Rocky Point has remained 90% McMansion free and has a pretty good mix in its housing stock.(Bungalow to Luxury and many are Waterfront)

It will be an attractive place to Downsize to as many run for cover.

Wading River,Shoreham-Miller Place-Mt Sinai have enormous pain ahead of them this winter with $4.50 a gallon to heat those 4000 Sft homes with vaulted ceilings,

Their taxes defy gravity and they have no Downtown or Industrial rateables to speak of.

I feel for those who overextended during the boom and bought the lie.

It's looking like 92 all over again for NE Brookhaven.

Its gonna be a long cold winter.

crookhavenwatch.blogspot.com
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Old 08-10-2008, 12:33 PM
 
Location: NY
1,416 posts, read 5,583,223 times
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nbres, your post was quite possibly the BEST I have ever read about the differences in Long Island suburban development. Fantastic!!

The only thing I'd add to it is that there have always been the "spot builders" ... you know, those cul-de-sacs where a builder came in during the 70s, 80s, and 90s, bought a few acres that were for sale, subdivided, and put a half-dozen homes on it. Sometimes they were appropriate to the neighborhood, sometimes not. It also depends a great deal on who the builder was. If it was someone like Petrelli on the South Shore or Yablonski on the North Shore, then those homes were very well built; but there were far fewer of those than the run-of-the-mill spot-builders, unfortunately.

Then of course there are areas like Locust Valley, Old Westbury, Mill Neck, Huntington Bay, Head of the Harbor, Nissequogue, Old Field, Poquott, etc where the majority of homes are custom-built if not downright "estates". Those are in "suburbia" too, even though they're worlds away from what most people envision when they hear that word.
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Old 08-10-2008, 01:45 PM
 
Location: Queens
536 posts, read 2,341,876 times
Reputation: 172
Quote:
Originally Posted by totallyfrazzled View Post
The only thing I'd add to it is that there have always been the "spot builders" ... you know, those cul-de-sacs where a builder came in during the 70s, 80s, and 90s, bought a few acres that were for sale, subdivided, and put a half-dozen homes on it.
It's funny because they're so obvious. I remember in East Meadow any dead end street with a loop at the end (instead of just ending) would usually have about six to twelve identical houses that were twice the size of the typical E. Meadow house. And some even had curbside mailboxes, which is very un-Long Island, haha.
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Old 08-10-2008, 02:14 PM
 
222 posts, read 890,437 times
Reputation: 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by nbres View Post
Great Posts. I'll try to respond concisely.


, Dexterguy.

I agree that the suburbs are definitely changing, but are they ending? That remains to be seen. I think we need to differentiate between the different types os suburbs. So how are some suburbs different thatn others. Well fortunately we have every type of suburb represented on our Island, this includes Queens as well.

Original Towns: These are not suburbs. They have the greatest chance of revival. They often are in natural settings with classic architecture. Not to mention railway stations and even old trolley line rails in the case of Northport. These places include: Port Jefferson, Patchogue, Amity Village, Bellport Village, Bay Shore, Port Washington, etc...

Early Suburbs: Forest Hills, Jamaica Estates, Garden City, East Williston, etc...These are classic suburbs developed before WWII. They are highly desirable places to live. The homes are well built. Each home is distinct often from the others, but all work together in harmony. These places will never die out because they are located near railway stations and are in walking distance often of a main street.

First Postwar suburbs built in the 1940s and 1950s. Found Mostly in Queens, Nassau and some parts of western Suffolk. Examples: Bayside, New Hye Park, most of Plainview, Commack, of course Levittown, Sunset City in North Babylon and many other neighborhoodss. These neighborhoods were often built on a large scale, but have the following characteristics; curved streets, sidewalks, homes are spaced appropriately, a local elementary school, giving the neighborhood its character. The homes are well built capes, ranches, and splits (except for the Levitt homes which are mostly junk, but the master planned neighborhoods are unique). These areas are often closer to parkways and state parklands. I think these areas will become moredesirable because they are closer to the city (shorter commutes) and were develped with a unifying suburban vision.

Second wave of postwar suburbia. By the late 1960s and 1970s Suburban growth begins to slow down as the baby boom ends and the firstwave of energy and inflation problems hit the U.S. Quite a bit of junk built during this time period. Developers cut corners such as using aluminum wiring instead of copper. Also, fewer planned developemnts. Fewer sidewalks and neighborhood parks. Lots of high ranches and splits in less desirable locations for commuting. Look at Deer Park, Selden, Ronkonkoma, etc.. Many of those Hiogh Ranches are being chopped up into multiple rentals. Thus, begins the downward spiral of the neighborhoods. Outlook is not good for these areas.

. AlexisT

McMansion LI devoped post 1980s: I thinks Long Island's McMansion exurbs are mostly found east of route 110 in: Manorville, Rocky Point, Baiting Hollow, Ridge, Miller Place, Shoreham-Wading River, Center Moriches, East Moriches, etc... These areas are most vulnerable to fluctuations in energy prices and mortgage rates in my opinion. However, there are lots of infill areas that were developed since the 1980s all over using the McMansion style development as in Holbrook, or Summerfield in Holtsville, or along rte. 347, etc.. These homes are of questionable quality and will cost a fortune to heat. Also, the commuting options are often limited to using just the LIE.

, Andysocks

I don't disagree for the most part. BTW I just find the topic interesting for discussion and how it may or may not apply to LI and the rest of the U.S. LI is different as you stated and not as vulnerable as other suburban areas.

Also, let me hust say this. PEOPLE LIKE LIVING IN THE SUBURBS. As long as there are people who desire to live in the suburbs then suburbs will exist, but in what form remains to bee seen when costs are factored in.

, LauraC

Not Likely. The rest of the United States is far cheaper than LI. Not much we can do about that.
Excellent post! I live in what you would call a first post war suburb a la a 1955, 2200 sq. ft., 4 level brick split. I've got to tell you that the newer homes just don't have the type of build quality I see in my 53 year old home. And yes ...my home is actually on the curve of my street...LOL!
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Old 08-11-2008, 07:59 PM
 
Location: Inis Fada
16,966 posts, read 34,553,813 times
Reputation: 7722
Quote:
Originally Posted by CrookhavenWatch View Post
Actually Rocky Point has remained 90% McMansion free and has a pretty good mix in its housing stock.(Bungalow to Luxury and many are Waterfront)

It will be an attractive place to Downsize to as many run for cover.

Wading River,Shoreham-Miller Place-Mt Sinai have enormous pain ahead of them this winter with $4.50 a gallon to heat those 4000 Sft homes with vaulted ceilings,

Their taxes defy gravity and they have no Downtown or Industrial rateables to speak of.

I feel for those who overextended during the boom and bought the lie.

It's looking like 92 all over again for NE Brookhaven.

Its gonna be a long cold winter.

crookhavenwatch.blogspot.com

Can this be the ghost of ClamBoy?
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