Mariner's Walk, Oyster Bay, NY 11771 (New York, Glen Cove: for sale, real estate, apartment complex)

[Danielle08]

Looking for information on this site regarding feedback about Mariner's Walk townhomes in Oyster Bay, NY. We have looked at them and they seem really nice. The area around it has some pros and cons but overall we are considering this area for a relocation. These townhomes are within walking distance of shops, etc. which seems like a plus. Anyone familiar with this area of Oyster Bay, please provide some feedback. Thanks.

[The Thinker]

Hello Danielle,

I live in that area and I will give you the inside scoop. Those townhouses are nicely done, they are very modern and pretty, but the neighborhood is not so good. There are nice areas in and around Oyster Bay, but that area is pretty dumpy.

Also, the price is wrong. You can get a very nice free-standing house in that area or in comparable areas for $400,000 so you probably do not want to buy an apartment for over $600,000. Also, nobody is buying those apartments. You can check out the data yourself. To date, only one unit has closed, and that was a long time ago. Eventually the development company may go under and if it does, it could be big trouble for the few people who own units. It is very possible that you could be on the hook for special assessments to cover property tax and expenses for the ENTIRE DEVELOPMENT. Even if this is not the case, why would you want to live in a ghost town?

If you really like these places, keep an eye on it. Sooner or later you can probably buy one from the bank for half its current asking price. However, I suspect you will probably not want to live so close to other units. Oyster Bay is not New York City, this sort of high-density housing just doesn't make any sense out here. If they were selling these units for $300,000 perhaps you could justify the fact that you are getting no land and no privacy by the fact that you are getting cute new construction at an attractive price.

[TomMoser]

I am showing only one unit having sold (closed 9/21/07). 5 units are currently under contract. 17 Are currently for sale. Keep in mind that this only includes those listed on MLS.

[Danielle08]

Thanks for the information on Mariner's Walk. We are going to keep looking in and around Oyster Bay.

[The Thinker]

Tom is correct, 1 has closed, 5 are under contract and 17 are for sale. There are a total of 28 units so there are a few that have not been listed on MLS yet. They have been selling units for going on two years now, and while the units have only been completed since the spring, it is obvious that they are not selling as planned. In fact, when the property site was purchased, they paid something like $5,000,000 for the land, an extraordinary sum of money. The construction must also have been very expensive. After you factor in all the money they pay in taxes and loan interest, it is hard to imagine that they will break even on these places. They originally tried to sell these units starting at the high 700s and low 800s, but recently, the cheapest units have been listed at the high 500s and low 600s. Obviously they are not selling like the developers have anticipated. I do not see how they can expect to break even on this project. They still have some units offered well above $800,000 but these units are also 2 br apartments that are 99% identical to the units that have sold for the high $500s. Remember, the 3 most important factors in real estate values are location, location, location. How can one 2br apartment be worth $800,000 and another 2br apartment in the same development be worth $500,000?

My belief is that they are not lowering the asking prices of all units because then they would have to take a hefty write-down that would spook their creditors and bring down the whole operation.

Eventually they will crunch the numbers and see that selling these units for market value is less profitable than simply walking away from the whole failed venture.

I looked into this a little more and apparently this development was built by Charles Wang, the founder of Computer Associates. He is a guy who made his fortune in computer software and I guess decided to jump on the real estate band wagon. Unfortunately he might have been a little too late to the party.

[TomMoser]

For a while Charles Wang was buying everything he could get his hands on in Oyster Bay. He had a vision of transforming the town. I heard a couple of months ago that he has abandoned this effort and now many of his properties are for sale.

[The Thinker]

Gentrification is nearly impossible to plan, it simply happens organically or it does not happen at all. Just because you build luxury apartments in a lower class neighborhood does not mean that the neighborhood will become an upper class neighborhood, or that upper class people will decide that they want to live in apartments that are a good hour's drive out of the city.

During the housing boom, there was a trend towards building new luxury construction on the least desirable property available. You now find brand new luxury homes next to train tracks, next to shopping center parking lots and on major roads. The only way these homes will all find buyers is if Long Island becomes so overwhelmed by rich people that all the really nice housing gets sold and all rich people just spill over into the traditionally less desirable property. There was a time when this was apparently happening, but now we know that there was no over abundance of rich people, just ordinary people who were given extraordinary loans that they could not afford.

Things will now return to how they were, rich people will occupy the nice houses in nice neighborhoods and middle class people will occupy the practical houses in working-class neighborhoods.

The only remaining question is what will happen to all those condos and McMansions in undesirable locations. My guess is that they will become rentals. It wold not surprise me at all if after the Mariner's Walk project fails, it gets turned into an apartment complex. There are plenty of professionals who transplant to Long Island and would like to rent for a while until they learn the way things work around here. There is really a shortage of this type of housing. Mariner's Walk would make a good cluster of rentals, and I bet they could get about $2,500 month for each unit.

[Johninwestbury]

If its the area around the train station then stay away. Alot of overcrowded illegal rentals (day laborers) which probably means gangs and crime. I went to that area a couple of years ago and was shocked at how much worse parts of Oyster Bay have gotten, its becoming more like Glen Cove with day laborers everywhere. Also vagrants hanging out in Roosevelt Park.

[Danielle08]

Thanks so much for your feedback! We have eliminated Oyster Bay from our search for several reasons.

[marwal]

I have been living at Mariner's for 14 months now and absolutely love it. There is nothing I am unhappy with. The interior is wonderful without doing any upgrades. Renaissance staff are great to work with. As for Oyster Bay, I could not be happier living here. I lived in Bayville so I was already familiar with this area.

As far as a home for $400,000 in this area, I don't think so.