Do you think the exodus from LI accelerating now that we are in an economic downturn? (Chester: mortgage, house prices)

[dman72]

Originally Posted by omigawd

I get what you mean but keep in mind the ONLY reason these housing prices were so horribly inflated was because interest rates were low and becauase anyone could get a mortgage, whether or not they had a job, savings, an income, or even the ability to make their mortgage payments.

Exactly my point. Low interest rates, appraisers accepting almost any price as legitimate, very lax lending, ARM's..... let's be serious here folks. The whole thing was a mirage. I realize that many people on this board work in real estate and don't want to accept that the glory days are over, but I guess we'll find out the hard way soon enough.

[arangoa79]

I left LI on August of 2006, luckily we were able to sell the house we bought three years earlier and make almost 100K profit. We moved to Madison, WI for better quality of life and a safer area to raise my kids. Being that it's a college town there is allot to do. It reminds me of LI, except that you don't have to deal with the crazy traffic and prices. Oh and they have have great cheese here

[rocafeller05]

Many people I meet and mingle, ages 25-35, with were planning on leaving LI before the economic meltdown. Even with the house prices dropping they are still saying the same thing..."Im moving off LI as soon as I get enough money saved". I think people have come to realize that the taxes, utilities and the overall cost to live here is going to keep going up and up. And for most people the time has come to say good bye to LI.

[TomMoser]

Originally Posted by omigawd

I get what you mean but keep in mind the ONLY reason these housing prices were so horribly inflated was because interest rates were low and becauase anyone could get a mortgage, whether or not they had a job, savings, an income, or even the ability to make their mortgage payments.

This was certainly one of the reasons that home prices were inflated, but not the only reason. There is a certain crowd mentality that grips all markets (look at the history of the stock market) from time to time.

There was a feeling by many people that prices could only continue to go up, making them feel that they better get on the train before it leaves the station. This was fed, in large part, by the media.

We are now seeing the same phenomana, but in the opposite direction. All we see is negative news and it leads people to believe that the only direction that house prices can go is down.

You have seen me write many times that people should treat a house as a home, not as a short term investment. However, the best way to make money is to be contrarian. Buy when everyone is screaming the sky is falling and sell when everyone thinks that the good times can never end.

One thing that I can tell you for sure is that people, as a group, have very short memories. Sometime in the next 10-15 years you will certainly see a repeat of the irrational run away home prices that we experienced earlier in this decade.

[gmagg]

Originally Posted by TomMoser

This was certainly one of the reasons that home prices were inflated, but not the only reason. There is a certain crowd mentality that grips all markets (look at the history of the stock market) from time to time.

There was a feeling by many people that prices could only continue to go up, making them feel that they better get on the train before it leaves the station. This was fed, in large part, by the media.

We are now seeing the same phenomana, but in the opposite direction. All we see is negative news and it leads people to believe that the only direction that house prices can go is down.

You have seen me write many times that people should treat a house as a home, not as a short term investment. However, the best way to make money is to be contrarian. Buy when everyone is screaming the sky is falling and sell when everyone thinks that the good times can never end.

One thing that I can tell you for sure is that people, as a group, have very short memories. Sometime in the next 10-15 years you will certainly see a repeat of the irrational run away home prices that we experienced earlier in this decade.

I cannot stand the media, because they are the biggest darn liars! Your post cannot be more accurate about the truth. It's the herd mentality and chicken little's that get screwd the most.

[gmagg]

Originally Posted by nbres

The population of LI would remain about the same with little or no real growth.

You are correct the Long Islanders leaving to other parts of the U.S. would be replaced with folks moving out to 'burbs from the city.

However, this is definitely going to change the ethnic/racial make-up of Long Island.

We will have a clearer picture after the 2010 census numbers are published.

Absolutely this going to have a change on the make up of Long Island, take a look at western and southern Nassau County compared to 10-15 years ago. Its migratory succession, segregation and income stratification that is changing the landscape of Long Island. Some people don't mind this while others that moved here 20-30+ years ago head out the back door to Florida, North Carolina, Connecticut, Pa, etc in search of that original environment (more affordable housing, lower taxes, less congestion, white populace, etc)

[LauraC]

Originally Posted by gmagg

Absolutely this going to have a change on the make up of Long Island, take a look at western and southern Nassau County compared to 10-15 years ago. Its migratory succession, segregation and income stratification that is changing the landscape of Long Island. Some people don't mind this while others that moved here 20-30+ years ago head out the back door to Florida, North Carolina, Connecticut, Pa, etc in search of that original environment (more affordable housing, lower taxes, less congestion, white populace, etc)

But here's the problem. You (not you personally) go to those cheaper states and their taxes wind up going up to support you. You are used to having things. You go to a place where the culture is a little different than yours and you still want things you had on Long Island not the stuff that's in the new state. The towns have to add more police and more fire and widen the roads to accommodate additional population growth. Then you want more stores and restaurant choices. They have to build new schools to accommodate your kids. Pretty soon the new place is just as traffic congested and expensive as the place you left.

[TomMoser]

Originally Posted by LauraC

But here's the problem. You (not you personally) go to those cheaper states and their taxes wind up going up to support you. You are used to having things. You go to a place where the culture is a little different than yours and you still want things you had on Long Island not the stuff that's in the new state. The towns have to add more police and more fire and widen the roads to accommodate additional population growth. Then you want more stores and restaurant choices. They have to build new schools to accommodate your kids. Pretty soon the new place is just as traffic congested and expensive as the place you left.

This is true. My brother recently moved to Delaware and he told me that it reminds him of "Long Island twenty years ago". I wonder if, in twenty years, it will be like Long Island today?

[doctobe]

Originally Posted by LauraC

But here's the problem. You (not you personally) go to those cheaper states and their taxes wind up going up to support you. You are used to having things. You go to a place where the culture is a little different than yours and you still want things you had on Long Island not the stuff that's in the new state. The towns have to add more police and more fire and widen the roads to accommodate additional population growth. Then you want more stores and restaurant choices. They have to build new schools to accommodate your kids. Pretty soon the new place is just as traffic congested and expensive as the place you left.

LauraC

You are so right. People don't seem to understand that. Look at South Florida. A couple of years (and even recently) Florida was the place to be. But now you have terrible traffic (can take well over 2 hours to commute from Fort Lauerdale to Maimi), crowding, high home prices and taxes and low paying jobs. About a year ago, Newsday profiled a couple who left Long Island to move to Coconut Grove, Florida (for all the reasons quoted by most people on this site) and they end up paying over $9,000 A YEAR for their property taxes, plus astronomical homeowners insurance (which by the way is NOT TAX DEDUCTIBLE!!!! )I bet they wish they never left the island!
But I agree that the population will not change much because people who desire to live here will move here as home prices become more affordable. And yes the demographics will change, but I personally welcome the diversity of the island. I enjoy walking on the Long Beach boardwalk and seeing the diverse set of people walking along side of me!!

Personally I'll continue paying the premium to live here for all that this area (Long Island and nearby NYC) has to offer. I am sorry, but not many areas of the country can match it!

[TristansMommy]

Originally Posted by LauraC

But here's the problem. You (not you personally) go to those cheaper states and their taxes wind up going up to support you. You are used to having things. You go to a place where the culture is a little different than yours and you still want things you had on Long Island not the stuff that's in the new state. The towns have to add more police and more fire and widen the roads to accommodate additional population growth. Then you want more stores and restaurant choices. They have to build new schools to accommodate your kids. Pretty soon the new place is just as traffic congested and expensive as the place you left.

But therein lies the problem.. if you are not getting away from LI for a change of lifestlye then you re moving for the wrong reasons.

I came to PA and I don't expect all the bells and whistles.. and that's quite alright with me. I choose a somewhat rural area.. I have a Walmart, Big Lots and a Super Giant and some other things.. but the other type of stores I like.. Bed Bath Beyond, Targe Ann taylor I travel 30 miles to Allentown/Whitehall area for and that is just fine with me. When I DO go there it is more like LI.. kind of looks like it too.. but I can assure you taxes are a lot less as are the homes etc.

And..I also tried to chose a place that didn't have an influx of Li'rs for the same reason I don't want this place to change to what I left and become cost prohibitive.

I traded thebeaches in for white water rafting on rivers and trails through the woods.. rolling hlls nad trees.