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Thread summary:

Long Island mass exodus contributing to worsening economy, vicious economic cycle causing people to leave Long Island which causes economy to worsen

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Old 11-16-2008, 02:49 AM
 
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It seems like the exodus from LI is accelerating these days.

The exodus often accelerates when the economy goes bad. I remember in the early 1990s when the aerospace industry shut down, and we were in a recession, Newsday published the estimates of people leaving in the thousands.

Today the NY economy is in big trouble. Ny depends heavily on the tax revenue generated by Wall Street's banking and finance industry. Without that steady stream of revenue the Governor will have to cut state spending. So even civil service employees might get some pink slips or at least delayed raises.

So who is leaving: newly minted college grads, folks that have lost their jobs, and a tsunami of baby boomers on the cusp of retirement.

If civil service workers (LI, state and NYC) start getting pink slips then the exodus will increase even more. Many of these people might take an early retirement package to get out ASAP.

One problem.

With so many people heading for the exit door the number of homes on the market will just increase and home values will go down. So that big cushiion of LI home equity people were counting on might not be there.

All I can say is hang tough.
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Old 11-16-2008, 05:51 AM
 
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Default Who is leaving?

Quote:
Originally Posted by nbres View Post
It seems like the exodus from LI is accelerating these days.

The exodus often accelerates when the economy goes bad. I remember in the early 1990s when the aerospace industry shut down, and we were in a recession, Newsday published the estimates of people leaving in the thousands.

Today the NY economy is in big trouble. Ny depends heavily on the tax revenue generated by Wall Street's banking and finance industry. Without that steady stream of revenue the Governor will have to cut state spending. So even civil service employees might get some pink slips or at least delayed raises.

So who is leaving: newly minted college grads, folks that have lost their jobs, and a tsunami of baby boomers on the cusp of retirement.

If civil service workers (LI, state and NYC) start getting pink slips then the exodus will increase even more. Many of these people might take an early retirement package to get out ASAP.

One problem.

With so many people heading for the exit door the number of homes on the market will just increase and home values will go down. So that big cushiion of LI home equity people were counting on might not be there.

All I can say is hang tough.
Al you provide is conjecture. This wouldn't be one of the most resilient real estate markets nationally if people were leaving.
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Old 11-16-2008, 06:50 AM
 
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I think people are finally waking up and realizing that Long Island has absolutely nothing to offer in relation to what it costs to live here. I've been here 11 years and I would give anything to be able to move back to NYC.
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Old 11-16-2008, 08:13 AM
 
Location: NY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nbres View Post
So that big cushion of LI home equity people were counting on might not be there.
That's not unique to Long Island; homeowners all over the country have been counting on having a big equity cushion because of the runup in resale prices that has run rampant in recent years.

IMO, Long Island homeowners are still currently better off in the home-equity department than people in many other parts of the country, simply because of our location. Home prices here have always been higher than most, and IMO will retain that position relative to homes in most of the rest of country. Major-city suburban areas will always be the last to drop in value, simply because those cities will always be drawing new people in.

Can you name even one major city that has truly gone from being a population magnet to a virtual ghost town on a long-term basis?
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Old 11-16-2008, 08:27 AM
 
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Can you name even one major city that has truly gone from being a population magnet to a virtual ghost town on a long-term basis?

Detroit is one example. I bet quite a few places in upstate NY, and throughout the mid-west and great plains have seen population decreases or stagnation.

I think NYC is unique and will not suffer such a fate, but even there the population dipped to only 7 million in the 80s. Today it is over 8 million again.
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Old 11-16-2008, 10:56 AM
 
Location: NY
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nbres View Post
Detroit is one example.
From what I have heard about Detroit (though I've never been there myself) it does sound as though you are right. I'll argue the point on upstate because I'm focusing on major cities only, and (no offense to any residents of Albany, etc!!) IMO there are no major cities upstate.

Would you agree though that Detroit is one of only a few cities that have a single overwhelming industry, in other words "only one magnet", and as often seen in any situation when all the economic eggs are in one basket, any serious damage to that magnet effectively kills that city's economy?

A corollary would be the tourist trade in Florida, although again I don't consider Orlando to be a "major city". Or for example suppose the unthinkable happened and gambling were to be outlawed in Nevada: Las Vegas would go the way of Detroit practically overnight.

Other than Detroit and Vegas, I can't think of another major population center that has only one single element underpinning its economy though. And I agree, NYC is, has always been, and will always be a special case.
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Old 11-16-2008, 11:02 AM
 
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I am a Senior Citizen,Veteran,and Tax payer on a fixed SS income.Can any one tell me how to keep my home and stay on Long Island ?The cost of living here is depleting my small life savings.
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Old 11-16-2008, 11:24 AM
 
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Default How about New York City - dependent on Wall Street

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Originally Posted by totallyfrazzled View Post
From what I have heard about Detroit (though I've never been there myself) it does sound as though you are right. I'll argue the point on upstate because I'm focusing on major cities only, and (no offense to any residents of Albany, etc!!) IMO there are no major cities upstate.

Would you agree though that Detroit is one of only a few cities that have a single overwhelming industry, in other words "only one magnet", and as often seen in any situation when all the economic eggs are in one basket, any serious damage to that magnet effectively kills that city's economy?

A corollary would be the tourist trade in Florida, although again I don't consider Orlando to be a "major city". Or for example suppose the unthinkable happened and gambling were to be outlawed in Nevada: Las Vegas would go the way of Detroit practically overnight.

Other than Detroit and Vegas, I can't think of another major population center that has only one single element underpinning its economy though. And I agree, NYC is, has always been, and will always be a special case.

NYC is dependent on Wall Street. The New York STock Exhange could be relocated anywhere today with online trading, etc..., but Wall Street is never going to relocate. Can you imagine the movers and shakers living in Topeka, Kansas.

The elite that runs this country like the amenities only found in places like Manhattan. So in that case NYC is overly dependent on Wall Street, but it is not going anywhere. Although we do feel the impact when the market goes up and down. Right now in a down market we are feeling the ripple effects all the way out in the suburbs.
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Old 11-16-2008, 08:41 PM
 
Location: Metropolis
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The problem is; the whole country is doing bad. Where are you going to go to find plentiful jobs like in the past. I think people everywhere will most likely stay put, especially considering how much harder it is to sell a house in this market. In many cases, people are upside down with their mortgages.
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Old 11-17-2008, 06:29 AM
 
Location: Little Babylon
4,359 posts, read 7,510,411 times
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I can see some of the movers and shakers moving away from Manhattan. Look at Madison Ave ad firms, once upon a time you had to be there but these days a firm could live anywhere. Also a lot of Wall Street has already quietly moved some of their operations west. At this point about half of all trades are electronic, and that's a number that will continue to go up.
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