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Old 11-16-2008, 09:49 AM
 
1,058 posts, read 3,008,412 times
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This is a touchy subject, but one that I seek a reasonable answer on.

Growing up and through my early adult life I always heard that once a minority family enters a white neighborhood home prices would go down. The whites would sell off to get out and the neighborhood would go down hill. Those whites remaining for what ever reason would be trapped. Do you think this is still true today? WHy or why not?

Some people still believe this, but I'm starting to question that logic for several reasons. I think that type of thinking is out-moded

1. First of all the entire NYC-LI metro area has become incredibly diverse. In fact of the 12 million people who live in downstate NY about half or slightly more than half are non-white now and will increase their proportion over the next decade and beyond.

So it stands to reason that many of these people are going to be buying homes as consumers. They will be causing demand for homes. They will be seeking suburbia as well, in ever greater numbers.

This will no doubt keep home prices elevated in all areas within the NYC metro area. In fact, perhaps, those areas of LI experiencing diversity now maybe in higher demand than those areas that are more homogeneous. Examples: homes within the Herricks school district or in Half Hollow Hills.

2. With the election of Barack Obama it appears America has turned a corner on race relatiions. Whites no longer flee an area when the first black or Hispanic family moves in. I think there is far more tolerance today than there was twenty years ago on LI.

I think people don't mind if their neighbors are different as long as they cut the grass, keep thier property nice and abide by the standard norms of middle class suburbia.

In fact, those Long Islander's fleeing here for the south are often shocked to find that the south is far more integrated than LI is. And yet things haven't fallen apart.

The big divider then will become income/class than race. Poverty stricken areas on LI are likely to remain so no matter who lives there and the same goes for wealthy, middle class and working class areas. Race can change more easily than class.

So what do you think?

Is race declining as a major determining factor in real estate?
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Old 11-16-2008, 09:56 AM
 
964 posts, read 1,978,538 times
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Nbres

I do think the socioeconomic barrier will be much stronger than the racial one in the future. So, I agree with you to an extent.

However, I think right now there is still a bit of stigma associated with blacks and hispanics in Long Island. If an Indian or Asian moves in next door, people seem less worried or intimidated. If black or hispanic move in, then there is more concern. This has been my experience here.

Now of course this is ridiculous. Nonetheless, because of crime statistics and generalizing, many people still have these perceptions. I think these will slowly fade away over time though.
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Old 11-16-2008, 12:16 PM
 
1,704 posts, read 2,817,924 times
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I really don't care if you're purple. Mow your lawn, pay your taxes and don't have any cops show up be friendly and you'll be invited to my barbeque any day.
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Old 11-16-2008, 10:31 PM
 
Location: Wellsville, Glurt County
2,845 posts, read 8,522,948 times
Reputation: 1365
Quote:
Originally Posted by nbres View Post
This is a touchy subject, but one that I seek a reasonable answer on.

Growing up and through my early adult life I always heard that once a minority family enters a white neighborhood home prices would go down. The whites would sell off to get out and the neighborhood would go down hill. Those whites remaining for what ever reason would be trapped. Do you think this is still true today? WHy or why not?

Some people still believe this, but I'm starting to question that logic for several reasons. I think that type of thinking is out-moded

1. First of all the entire NYC-LI metro area has become incredibly diverse. In fact of the 12 million people who live in downstate NY about half or slightly more than half are non-white now and will increase their proportion over the next decade and beyond.

So it stands to reason that many of these people are going to be buying homes as consumers. They will be causing demand for homes. They will be seeking suburbia as well, in ever greater numbers.

This will no doubt keep home prices elevated in all areas within the NYC metro area. In fact, perhaps, those areas of LI experiencing diversity now maybe in higher demand than those areas that are more homogeneous. Examples: homes within the Herricks school district or in Half Hollow Hills.

2. With the election of Barack Obama it appears America has turned a corner on race relatiions. Whites no longer flee an area when the first black or Hispanic family moves in. I think there is far more tolerance today than there was twenty years ago on LI.

I think people don't mind if their neighbors are different as long as they cut the grass, keep thier property nice and abide by the standard norms of middle class suburbia.

In fact, those Long Islander's fleeing here for the south are often shocked to find that the south is far more integrated than LI is. And yet things haven't fallen apart.

The big divider then will become income/class than race. Poverty stricken areas on LI are likely to remain so no matter who lives there and the same goes for wealthy, middle class and working class areas. Race can change more easily than class.

So what do you think?

Is race declining as a major determining factor in real estate?
Yes and no...

No in the respect that I seriously doubt many people are concerned over one or two minority families moving into their neighborhood like they once were. I haven't seen too many burning crosses, though a hispanic family moved in a few houses down from me and the only neighbor who commented on it was "very concerned" that it would effect her property value and also said she was having an alarm installed.

Yes in the respect that areas which have shifted from a white majority to a white minority are still viewed as having some kind of stigma of undesirability attached to them regardless of how little they have changed in other regards. Read these forums...Valley Stream, Deer Park, Baldwin, Hicksville, etc...
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Old 11-16-2008, 11:47 PM
 
Location: Long Island (chief in S Farmingdale)
17,934 posts, read 13,562,735 times
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It still exists to a bit of an extent, but not nearly as bad as it once was. Class and socio-economic factors are probably a bit larger. I do think that it might exist more in working class white communities than ipper middle class white communities. For example a working class african American family might run into more problems in a working class white neighborhood, than an upper middle class African Americam family would run into in an upper middle class white neighborhood. All in all I would say it likely exists in most areas to some extent, but not nearly to the extent it once was.

I do agree with Sean that a certain stigma exists in certain areas which have gone through demographic changes even if socio-economic changes haven't occurred. Areas such as Valley Stream, Baldwin, deer park, etc have a certain stigma to them by some since they have gone through demographic changes, even though they are just as middle class as they were 15 years ago.
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Old 11-17-2008, 04:29 AM
 
1,058 posts, read 3,008,412 times
Reputation: 223
Quote:
I do agree with Sean that a certain stigma exists in certain areas which have gone through demographic changes even if socio-economic changes haven't occurred. Areas such as Valley Stream, Baldwin, deer park, etc have a certain stigma to them by some since they have gone through demographic changes, even though they are just as middle class as they were 15 years ago.
Lets Look at this question from a supply and demand point of view.

What about my point that given the changing demographics of the region and nation as a whole that some diverse areas will become even more desirable in the future.

As I pointed out earlier there about 12 million people in down state NY and of those 12 million only about 5 million are White. Long Island (Nasssau-Suffolk) is probably about a third non-White today so it stands to reason that the non-White population will continue to increase on LI. As Non-Whites increase on LI they will increase the demand for housing outside of traditional non-White LI neighborhoods and thus keep prices bouyant.

There simply aren't enough new White home buyers out there to replace the Whites leaving LI. Therefore, the difference will be made up from non-Whites. They will be the future consumers of housing here.

So here is a question. Should a White family invest in their home if their neighborhood's racial composition is changing, but not its class or should the White family get out because the home values will decline?

I say stay because there are fewer places to flee to on LI, so what is the difference?
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Old 11-17-2008, 11:32 AM
 
131 posts, read 493,105 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nbres View Post
Lets Look at this question from a supply and demand point of view.

What about my point that given the changing demographics of the region and nation as a whole that some diverse areas will become even more desirable in the future.

As I pointed out earlier there about 12 million people in down state NY and of those 12 million only about 5 million are White. Long Island (Nasssau-Suffolk) is probably about a third non-White today so it stands to reason that the non-White population will continue to increase on LI. As Non-Whites increase on LI they will increase the demand for housing outside of traditional non-White LI neighborhoods and thus keep prices bouyant.

There simply aren't enough new White home buyers out there to replace the Whites leaving LI. Therefore, the difference will be made up from non-Whites. They will be the future consumers of housing here.

So here is a question. Should a White family invest in their home if their neighborhood's racial composition is changing, but not its class or should the White family get out because the home values will decline?

I say stay because there are fewer places to flee to on LI, so what is the difference?
Nbres,

I've seen your posts and I've commented on a couple of them. It's pretty apparant that the color of someone's skin is a major issue to you, from your statistics of how many percentage of white children go to a particular school to what are the top white towns to live in and a prime example is your current thread.

Why is someone's race so important to you? Is it because of home values? If that's the case then Wall Street did a number on these values that no black guy moving into your neighborhood can beat. On your above post, when you say there are fewer places to "flee" how do you think an african american would feel reading something like that? I know it's a public forum and you don't care but geez....

Times have changed, the most important man in the United States of America is now a black man. If you were to flee a choice would be out of the US, maybe Canada.

But to answer your questions, towns that were more than 90% white are now more diverse. I have a friend who lives in Smithtown, in the past few months a black family and an indian family moved on their block. It's the first minorities that have ever lived on their block. He also mentioned that other indian families (relatives of the ones that live there now) were looking on their block as well.

All areas on Long Island are going to get more diverse, look at the trends on the state report card percentages, I am sure you will be shocked when you see the 2008-2009 results. My advice would be to move, maybe into an area like the Carolinas, there are areas in the Carolinas that are all white and will stay that way for a while.

What town do you live in now? I have a feeling you are on the South Shore, somewhere around Deer Park but I doubt you will answer....

Anthony
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Old 11-17-2008, 02:11 PM
 
1,704 posts, read 2,817,924 times
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Wow that's pretty biased in and of itself. How do you think Deer Park and South Shore residents in general feel about that statement. You essentially called all of the South Shore racist. It's good to know the high and mighty still shoot themselves in the foot.
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Old 11-17-2008, 04:55 PM
 
1,058 posts, read 3,008,412 times
Reputation: 223
Default What in the world is your point - stick to the question please.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyNYC View Post
Nbres,

I've seen your posts and I've commented on a couple of them. It's pretty apparant that the color of someone's skin is a major issue to you, from your statistics of how many percentage of white children go to a particular school to what are the top white towns to live in and a prime example is your current thread.

Why is someone's race so important to you? Is it because of home values? If that's the case then Wall Street did a number on these values that no black guy moving into your neighborhood can beat. On your above post, when you say there are fewer places to "flee" how do you think an african american would feel reading something like that? I know it's a public forum and you don't care but geez....

Times have changed, the most important man in the United States of America is now a black man. If you were to flee a choice would be out of the US, maybe Canada.

But to answer your questions, towns that were more than 90% white are now more diverse. I have a friend who lives in Smithtown, in the past few months a black family and an indian family moved on their block. It's the first minorities that have ever lived on their block. He also mentioned that other indian families (relatives of the ones that live there now) were looking on their block as well.

All areas on Long Island are going to get more diverse, look at the trends on the state report card percentages, I am sure you will be shocked when you see the 2008-2009 results. My advice would be to move, maybe into an area like the Carolinas, there are areas in the Carolinas that are all white and will stay that way for a while.

What town do you live in now? I have a feeling you are on the South Shore, somewhere around Deer Park but I doubt you will answer....

Anthony

What is your point - stick to the question please. Does race still matter in real estate on Long Island?

And what is wrong with Deer Park?
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Old 11-18-2008, 10:24 AM
 
131 posts, read 493,105 times
Reputation: 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by nbres View Post
What is your point - stick to the question please. Does race still matter in real estate on Long Island?

And what is wrong with Deer Park?
Do you think anyone here would have that info? You have to have comps in an area, then compare comps when a minority moved in. Even if you have all the data, how on earth can you eliminate other factors that could affect home sales?

This entire thread is idiotic but I've come to expect these types of threads from you. Nothing is wrong with Deer Park, I just want to know what town you live in but for some reason you will never give a straight answer.

Anthony
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