Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > New York > Long Island
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 02-10-2009, 09:15 PM
 
335 posts, read 932,627 times
Reputation: 76

Advertisements

MLSLI just reported that January median closing prices for Nassau County fell 12.5% from Jan'08. Median closing price in Jan'08 was $455k, now it is $385k.

Inventory in Nassau/Suffolk is down about 3% as well...still have all time record inventory on the market even in the slowest season of the real estate year.

Also, number of January closings are at a 10 year low......
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 02-11-2009, 07:13 AM
 
6,373 posts, read 13,090,950 times
Reputation: 4652
Wait till next winter.... There is still some dropping to go!
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-11-2009, 09:26 AM
 
1,058 posts, read 3,480,201 times
Reputation: 229
If deflation is allowed to run its course then we should expect home prices to fall even more. Home prices will eventually fall to meet with median family incomes. It is possible that we will see another 20% decline in home prices here on Long Island.

The funny thing about the Long Island market is that people are trying to sell their homes as if it was still 2005 - that is why so many homes are languishing on the market - if the home is priced right, it will sell fast.


Nassau: median family income is $101,000/year
-- median home price should deflate to $250,000 - $300,000 - $360,000 (low, mid, high estimates)

According to the statistic given by modmondays Nasssau is already at $385,000
Prices could easily go down another 20%, thus bringing median home prices down to around $300,000


Suffolk: median family income is $91,000/year
-- median home price should deflate to $245,000 - $270,000 - $320,000 (low-mid-high estimates)

I believe I read somewhere that median home prices in Suffolk have dropped to $350,000 - this is pretty close - another 20% decline maybe expected until median family income is in line with median home prices.

Lets look at the home price equation from the otherside of the coin. Home prices on average over many years, between the ups and downs, only appreciate at about 3% to 4% a year. So if you knew the value of your home before the housing bubble, say in 2000, then you would multiply its year 2000 value by 9 by 3% or 4%. Thus, a home valued at $200,000 in the year 2000 should be expected to be worth between $254,000 and $272,000.

Does anyone know the median value of homes sold in Nassau and Suffolk County in the year 2000?

I think it was around $150,000 for Suffolk.

This means the median should be around $200,000 now.

This explains why the Dems and Obama are desperate to shovel a few trillion dollars into the economy - they want INFLATION.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-11-2009, 09:44 AM
 
Location: Nassau, Long Island, NY
16,408 posts, read 33,191,003 times
Reputation: 7337
Default Calculator to do it for you

Quote:
Originally Posted by nbres View Post
Home prices on average over many years, between the ups and downs, only appreciate at about 3% to 4% a year. So if you knew the value of your home before the housing bubble, say in 2000, then you would multiply its year 2000 value by 9 by 3% or 4%.
Here's a calculator that you plug in the last year the house sold, what it sold for, and you get figures of a gain from 3% to 5% for each year that has passed up to the present. If the house was sold post-bubble there is a warning that pops up that says "The results calculated are most likely higher since the house was purchased during the bubble." At the bottom it repeats the highest price (5% appreciation for last year) and says "Pay no more than $_______k for this house unless some major upgrades have been done."

A real estate agent or seller is bound to come on here and make a nasty comment about the calculator and the likelihood of getting a house for the price the calculator finds, but I have tried it on real estate listings when I first found out about it in 2006 and, depending on when the home was bought, sometimes the calculator was in line with asking price. In 2006, however, what I mostly found was that asking prices were in general around $100K more than what the max on the calculator suggested. I think nowadays the calculator and the asking prices should be coming closer in more instances.

Go here

Bubblemap of Long Island, NY

and scroll down to "House Appreciation Estimator"
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-11-2009, 10:00 AM
 
Location: Nassau, Long Island, NY
16,408 posts, read 33,191,003 times
Reputation: 7337
Default At the height of the bubble ...

Here's a snapshot from what was going on in 2006:

NAHB housing affordability index - May. 19, 2006

This article examines the percentage of homes affordable on a middle class salary by location. The place where the most homes were affordable to the middle class was Lansing, Michigan ("Some 92.7 percent of all homes sold there could be bought by families earning the median income in town.")

Towards the bottom of the list (least homes whose sale prices were affordable to the middle class) comes Nassau/Suffolk. ("The New York metro area, the only non-Golden State in the bottom 10, came in tenth, tied with Nassau-Suffolk, New York, at 6.1 percent.")

So, in 2006, in a location like Long Island, whose demographics are middle class by far, only 6.1% of the homes for sale could actually be afforded by people earning a middle class salary. 93.9% of the homes for sale were out of reach of the middle class. And people wonder why this housing market has problems!

I will look for current statistics on this. If anyone else finds them, please post!
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-11-2009, 01:54 PM
 
Location: East Northport
3,351 posts, read 9,724,911 times
Reputation: 1337
One of the issues driving prices lower is the increase in foreclosure sales.

The other problem is that no one is able to accurately price a house right now, due to the lack of recent sales comps. Sometimes, the only recent area sales are a year or more old, so you have to do some serious guessing.

I still, though, cannot buy into the calculator approach. There are too many variables that it does not account for.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-11-2009, 01:57 PM
 
Location: Northwestern Michigan
939 posts, read 2,672,021 times
Reputation: 411
Great news!The correction continues
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-11-2009, 02:00 PM
 
6,373 posts, read 13,090,950 times
Reputation: 4652
I think the reason sales are down is because people know the market is still overpriced. From 2000 on anyone and I mean anyone could get a mortgage. And this is why the RE market skyrocketed. Now that its back to the 20% down, good credit, show paystubs, etc. it weeds alot of those buyers from 2000 out of the market.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-11-2009, 02:55 PM
 
Location: East Northport
3,351 posts, read 9,724,911 times
Reputation: 1337
It's starting to become not just a matter of price. I have seen some very well priced homes that are not selling. Today it is about JOBS. People are afraid for their jobs and therefor are not buying anything. No cars, no TVs, no clothes, no houses.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 02-11-2009, 03:11 PM
 
153 posts, read 379,508 times
Reputation: 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by modmondays View Post
MLSLI just reported that January median closing prices for Nassau County fell 12.5% from Jan'08. Median closing price in Jan'08 was $455k, now it is $385k.

Inventory in Nassau/Suffolk is down about 3% as well...still have all time record inventory on the market even in the slowest season of the real estate year.

Also, number of January closings are at a 10 year low......
Do you have a link to this report? 385k sounds low for the current Nassau market, extremely low for a median value. Not to mention the math is off 455K less 12.5% is not 385K.

Not that I'm doubting you but to coin a phrase from Reagan "Trust but verify"
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:




Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > New York > Long Island
Similar Threads
View detailed profiles of:

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top