Sellers and REA's: Welcome to the "Real" Beginning of the Bursting Bubble (Bath: sales, foreclosures)

[modmondays]

Originally Posted by omigawd

Very simple. Manhattan is a real estate market unto itself. Every other RE market could be crumbling, declining, etc, but Manhattan would still remain stable. The fact that Manhattan is on the decline and prices are expected to drop by 50% means that everyplace else can only look forwar to a total collapse.

Well said. And.....Nassau County, Westchester, etc. get most of their business from those "Manhattan" families that eventually move for more space and the least amount of commute time. If Manhattan pricing falls off the cliff, it is Guaranteed that LI will follow right behind it. And what about Suffolk prices with the East End.....does that have nothing to do with Manhattan prices as well? I think not!

[longislandmike]

Originally Posted by modmondays

Well said. And.....Nassau County, Westchester, etc. get most of their business from those "Manhattan" families that eventually move for more space and the least amount of commute time. If Manhattan pricing falls off the cliff, it is Guaranteed that LI will follow right behind it. And what about Suffolk prices with the East End.....does that have nothing to do with Manhattan prices as well? I think not!

Suffolk County...SQOZED in the middle.

[Jennifer06]

Originally Posted by modmondays

....And what about Suffolk prices with the East End.....does that have nothing to do with Manhattan prices as well?

Prices on the East End have dropped dramatically. Check the MLS for East Hampton. Amazing. What would have been $1million a couple of years ago is now $500k.

I'd be interested to hear what people think of Obama's plan that's been rolled out the past couple of days and how/when it will affect our prices.

[I_Love_LI_but]

Originally Posted by modmondays

Are you kidding me...or what????

Have you ever taken a look at prices in Nassau County North and South? Did you ever hear of places such as Great Neck, Roslyn, Port Washington, Sea Cliff, Glen Head, East Norwich, East Hills, Cedarhurst, Atlantic Beach, Lido Beach, North Woodmere, Merrick Woods, Rockville Center????

Okay then. I will check mlsli.com to see if the prices of homes there have been cut in half yet. If so, I will delve closer into Sea Cliff and Roslyn for myself. There are few houses there I have admired for a long time ...

The article is discussing unsold NEW CONDO DEVELOPMENT in Manhattan. First of all, if the asking price of a unit was $2M in 2008, does that mean it was "worth" $2M and therefore that equates a concrete LOSS of $1M if they halve the asking price? You know as well as I do, a seller can ask ANYTHING they want for a piece of property. It is up to the buyer to decide it's worth it and pay for it. In the case of these new developments, apparently not many decided the apartments were worth $2M. Real estate developers of these new projects are in a tight spot right now because the credit crunch is preventing some lending to potential customers who "might theoretically" pay $2M or even $1M. The article said there are 8K new units on the market and 22K more to come so there is too much new condo inventory. When the article mentioned actual numbers of units with drastic price reductions, it ranged from 48 to 17 (the 17 were in Weehawken NJ no less, so I don't know how that is included as "Manhattan" real estate). Compared to total units of housing in Manhattan, that is quite an insignificant number. Don't think for a minute that because developers are considering drastic price changes for unsold new condo inventory that the apartments in the Dakota are going to be half price soon. The established coop and condo buildings are still doing very well without sellers resorting to half price measures. The new condo building developers are having a hard time getting sold and getting their buildings established, but it does not mean the sky is falling for all real estate in Manhattan and, by extension, the surrounding areas.

[I_Love_LI_but]

Originally Posted by omigawd

Very simple. Manhattan is a real estate market unto itself. Every other RE market could be crumbling, declining, etc, but Manhattan would still remain stable. The fact that Manhattan is on the decline and prices are expected to drop by 50% means that everyplace else can only look forwar to a total collapse.

I guess you did not read the article before commenting. The article is solely focused on developers having problems selling NEW CONDO developments. That does not constitute "all of Manhattan."

[Viralmd]

And it's not co-ops. They're in a different financial position. There was another article about a week ago: when a condo is foreclosed on, the money goes to the bank. When a co-op shareholder is in foreclosure, the money goes to the CO-OP ASSOCIATION FIRST. Then, if any is left over, it goes to the bank. Co-ops are MUCH more financially sound than condominiums, simply by virtue of the fact that they vet all the shareholders and require substantial downpayments.

[omigawd]

Originally Posted by I_Love_LI_but

I guess you did not read the article before commenting. The article is solely focused on developers having problems selling NEW CONDO developments. That does not constitute "all of Manhattan."

The same is happening with "old" condos.... I recently saw a 2BR/2bath penthouse condo in the East 60s LISTED at 900K (trying to sell fast and get interest). The highest bid on it was only 1.2M. A year or 2 ago, that same condo would have EASILY gone for 2M.

Believe me, when Manhattan prices fall, there is a BIG problem.

[modmondays]

Originally Posted by I_Love_LI_but

Okay then. I will check mlsli.com to see if the prices of homes there have been cut in half yet. If so, I will delve closer into Sea Cliff and Roslyn for myself. There are few houses there I have admired for a long time ...

The article is discussing unsold NEW CONDO DEVELOPMENT in Manhattan. First of all, if the asking price of a unit was $2M in 2008, does that mean it was "worth" $2M and therefore that equates a concrete LOSS of $1M if they halve the asking price? You know as well as I do, a seller can ask ANYTHING they want for a piece of property. It is up to the buyer to decide it's worth it and pay for it. In the case of these new developments, apparently not many decided the apartments were worth $2M. Real estate developers of these new projects are in a tight spot right now because the credit crunch is preventing some lending to potential customers who "might theoretically" pay $2M or even $1M. The article said there are 8K new units on the market and 22K more to come so there is too much new condo inventory. When the article mentioned actual numbers of units with drastic price reductions, it ranged from 48 to 17 (the 17 were in Weehawken NJ no less, so I don't know how that is included as "Manhattan" real estate). Compared to total units of housing in Manhattan, that is quite an insignificant number. Don't think for a minute that because developers are considering drastic price changes for unsold new condo inventory that the apartments in the Dakota are going to be half price soon. The established coop and condo buildings are still doing very well without sellers resorting to half price measures. The new condo building developers are having a hard time getting sold and getting their buildings established, but it does not mean the sky is falling for all real estate in Manhattan and, by extension, the surrounding areas.

Old or New.....when list - - and ultimately sale prices - - drop like this, it effects the COMPS (in the same way that foreclosures effect home prices on the same block). And Comps are "the basis" of negotiations between the buyer and seller.

Housing stock in Nassau and East End Suffolk are DIRECTLY related to the health of Manhattan and Brooklyn real estate....new condo or old condo will not matter. We are looking at the general forecast for housing prices and with drops like these, if you are expecting Long Island prices to "hold" you are going to be in for quite a shock..........

[longislandmike]

Michael Bloomberg Objects to Income-Tax Hikes for New York Households - WSJ.com


"One percent of the households that file in this city pay something like 50% of the taxes," explained the Mayor. "In the city, that's something like 40,000 people. If a handful left, any raise would make it revenue neutral. The question is what's fair. If 1% are paying 50% of the taxes, you want to make it even more?"

[I_Love_LI_but]

Originally Posted by omigawd

A year or 2 ago, that same condo would have EASILY gone for 2M.

How do you know? Do you frequent those areas? Are you buying there?