Why Long Island House Values Must Plummet (renters, houses)

[suzook]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

1987 was no growing market, we had a huge crash in the stock markets that looked like the world was ending. real estate plunged and was down for almost 10 years.. co-ops took a 30% hit


you can find many reasons for not buying when things are down .... but thats when the money is made.... all the big losses happen when markets are strong and look great.... all the big money is made out of the depths of hell....when the word real estate or stocks makes you vomit...... everyone has to do what they feel is right for them, you have to sleep at night...... its no secret trick that successful investors use or the fact that they have capital,,,, its their mentality that allows them to buy when everyone else thinks they are nuts.

never forget the famous business week issue back in the 70's,,... equities were beat to death so bad for almost a decade that finally the magazine declared stocks dead as an investment.... they had not 1 reason for buying and their cover declared THE DEATH OF EQUITIES, complete with tombstone..

well from the next day on the greatest bull market in history started and never looked back at those levels

I totally agree. Everyone is acting like it is the end of the world!!!!!!!!!!! The sky is falling!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Things are bad, this is true. But things WILL get better, and homes WILL go back up in value. This isnt the first, or last time this has happened. It may be the worst, but things will get better.

[zulu400]

Originally Posted by suzook

I totally agree. Everyone is acting like it is the end of the world!!!!!!!!!!! The sky is falling!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Things are bad, this is true. But things WILL get better, and homes WILL go back up in value. This isnt the first, or last time this has happened. It may be the worst, but things will get better.

Things will surely get better.... absolutely ! In fact you could have said that in 2007 too.... even 2008 for that matter.... I strongly believe "EVENTUALLY" things will get better

[dman72]

They will get better eventually, however, this is not 1987..it's much worse, you're basically seeing the complete collapse of the debt based US economy. It used to be manufacturing based, for about the last 30 years it's shifted to debt..where is the next fake boom going to come from?

[zulu400]

A blast from the past....
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/07/bu...view.html?_r=1

This educates us a little bit into how to read between the lines....
None of the articles talk about "phantom inventory" that the banks carry.... I'm pretty sure we are going to see headlines like "Existing sales pickup..." etc etc in the next few weeks.... you know who are they aimed at ! The media has to portray a happy immediate future....
Try asking people who have purchased in the last couple of years.... I think at this moment we just don't know how close to bottom we really are 50% or 90% ? I know its hard to admit that you have purchased the house at the wrong time. One thing is certain.... just like you have to be good to predict the absolute bottom.... you have to be equally good to predict 90% of bottom too.

[modmondays]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

1987 was no growing market, we had a huge crash in the stock markets that looked like the world was ending. real estate plunged and was down for almost 10 years.. co-ops took a 30% hit


you can find many reasons for not buying when things are down .... but thats when the money is made.... all the big losses happen when markets are strong and look great.... all the big money is made out of the depths of hell....when the word real estate or stocks makes you vomit...... everyone has to do what they feel is right for them, you have to sleep at night...... its no secret trick that successful investors use or the fact that they have capital,,,, its their mentality that allows them to buy when everyone else thinks they are nuts.


never forget the famous business week issue back in the 70's,,... equities were beat to death so bad for almost a decade that finally the magazine declared stocks dead as an investment.... they had not 1 reason for buying and their cover declared THE DEATH OF EQUITIES, complete with tombstone..

well from the next day on the greatest bull market in history started and never looked back at those levels

Well....that would depend on what month you started investing in 1987 - - that market didnt "collapse" until OCTOBER: 10+ months into that year.

You say "Thats when the money is made" -- that my friend is SPECULATING. You are talking like an RE Speculation Investor - - which is fine....I have no problems with that. But most of us here on the board are talking about buying a "home". And with ZERO job security in ALL business sectors, you would be taking a huge chance right now - - and buying at STILL inflated prices from that bubble. IMHO even Warren Buffet would think that is an unwise investment decision. Only the NAR would believe otherwise........ "Buy high and Sell Higher? Maybe???"

This economy is FAR different than 1987 - - that was a Drexel economy. This is now a WORLDWIDE economy and I see and read no such signs of a recovery any time in the near future. Read Peggy Noonan's column this weekend in the Wall St. Jrnl as one example - - not a pretty sight.

[mathjak107]

Originally Posted by zulu400

A blast from the past....
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/07/bu...view.html?_r=1

This educates us a little bit into how to read between the lines....
None of the articles talk about "phantom inventory" that the banks carry.... I'm pretty sure we are going to see headlines like "Existing sales pickup..." etc etc in the next few weeks.... you know who are they aimed at ! The media has to portray a happy immediate future....
Try asking people who have purchased in the last couple of years.... I think at this moment we just don't know how close to bottom we really are 50% or 90% ? I know its hard to admit that you have purchased the house at the wrong time. One thing is certain.... just like you have to be good to predict the absolute bottom.... you have to be equally good to predict 90% of bottom too.

which is why i just do it!.. i make sure its the best deal i can get, the best value and buy the property i never time it.......im in it for the long haul and time makes things usually work out just fine......

[mathjak107]

Originally Posted by modmondays

Well....that would depend on what month you started investing in 1987 - - that market didnt "collapse" until OCTOBER: 10+ months into that year.

You say "Thats when the money is made" -- that my friend is SPECULATING. You are talking like an RE Speculation Investor - - which is fine....I have no problems with that. But most of us here on the board are talking about buying a "home". And with ZERO job security in ALL business sectors, you would be taking a huge chance right now - - and buying at STILL inflated prices from that bubble. IMHO even Warren Buffet would think that is an unwise investment decision. Only the NAR would believe otherwise........ "Buy high and Sell Higher? Maybe???"

This economy is FAR different than 1987 - - that was a Drexel economy. This is now a WORLDWIDE economy and I see and read no such signs of a recovery any time in the near future. Read Peggy Noonan's column this weekend in the Wall St. Jrnl as one example - - not a pretty sight.

buying low is not speculating..... buying anything for the short term is speculating.... buying an asset when others are not is the way to make money, lots of money sometimes.... buying good values while others are afraid to buy is like a sale, its an investors dream.... sometimes i got to the party a little early and things fell further on me, but again time healed all and the gains were well worth the wait. ..... all i can say is thats my strategy and im retiring on it nice and early... ..... if you got a better strategy then do it... just dont wait to long and not act


i couldnt of timed it worse in 1987, i closed 2 weeks before the crash.....

[modmondays]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

which is why i just do it!.. i make sure its the best deal i can get, the best value and buy the property i never time it.......im in it for the long haul and time makes things usually work out just fine......

There are Good times to invest and there are Bad times to invest.

Bernanke just mentioned on :60 minutes that there is a ton of private equity just sitting this one out on the sidelines. Why do you think that is?

And "Timing a Market" in Real Estate is FAR different than timing it in other markets. Equity markets can increase by 10% or drop 10% on any given two day period. In Real Estate there is a much longer period to ascertain whether the bottom has been reached, or there is still further to go. Its not as if "Bidding Wars" are going to start the day after there is a happy vibe again on CNBC..........

[modmondays]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

buying low is not speculating..... buying anything for the short term is speculating.... buying an asset when others are not is the way to make money, lots of money sometimes.... buying good values while others are afraid to buy is like a sale, its an investors dream.... sometimes i got to the party a little early and things fell further on me, but again time healed all and the gains were well worth the wait. ..... all i can say is thats my strategy and im retiring on it nice and early... ..... if you got a better strategy then do it... just dont wait to long and not act


i couldnt of timed it worse in 1987, i closed 2 weeks before the crash.....

To recap, I originally said that if you have Bulletproof job security, then go for it! BUT: you are still BUYING HIGH. And that is not a sound strategy for anybody investing (short or long) in anything.

[zulu400]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

which is why i just do it!.. i make sure its the best deal i can get, the best value and buy the property i never time it.......im in it for the long haul and time makes things usually work out just fine......

Ok, great, long haul investing is good.... I'm sure this thread is not intended to discuss that...
For a person like me.... who may sell again in 5-7 years.... is your advice to "just do it" right now ? And would you have advised the same to a buyer like me in 2007 too ?

Another thing.... "i make sure its the best deal i can get, the best value" .... this really contradicts with your "just do it" principle don't you think ?