Why Long Island House Values Must Plummet (Hempstead, Freeport: foreclosures, rental)

[modmondays]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

buying low is not speculating..... buying anything for the short term is speculating.... buying an asset when others are not is the way to make money, lots of money sometimes.... buying good values while others are afraid to buy is like a sale, its an investors dream.... sometimes i got to the party a little early and things fell further on me, but again time healed all and the gains were well worth the wait. ..... all i can say is thats my strategy and im retiring on it nice and early... ..... if you got a better strategy then do it... just dont wait to long and not act


i couldnt of timed it worse in 1987, i closed 2 weeks before the crash.....

But housing is not a Good Value now -- as you mentioned. It is FAR from a Value based on still high pricing.

[mathjak107]

one thing about any markets in any asset class is you dont know when things are a good value... one thing is for sure and thats a given, THE HERD IS USUALLY WRONG..... people sit on the sidelines when they should buy and buy when they should sell. if we knew when things were a good deal nasdaq would have never gone to 5,000 in the first place or any bubble would ever happen as we would just know its not a good deal at those levels... so lets see we shouldnt buy when things are high and we shouldnt buy when things are dropping so whenever some one figures out exacly when to buy let us all know

think about the fact that markets are moved by what you dont know not what you do so as everyone has the same info and perception of whats known. we all know things are crappy out there and look like they can get a whole lot worse, the media , the forecasters all have us going to hell in a hand basket ... BUT its always the stuff not on the radar that makes the herd wrong.

When we hit the equity markets high in oct 2007 there was none of this on anyones radar, things looked great except for some inflation worries.... the thought of anyone buying long term treasuries then was a joke.. they were getting hammered every day , rates were starting to rise devastating long term treasuries which were dropping .... the herd said you had it all wrong if you thought treasuries were a deal..... did i mention last year while the stocks were down 38% those treasuries you were warned to stay away from soared and returned 28%...

it looks like real estate is dead right now but remember debacles like we are going thru destroyed a lot of wealth especially in the equity markets....

but debacles also create a ton of wealth... people buying into the stock markets at these levels will eventually eventually make a ton of money... unlike real estate , stocks are usually explosive 6-9 months before the economy turns the corner...

markets soar while unemployment is still rising,.. a 30-40% gain the first year is the norm.. of course most people miss it as things look awful in the world and the media, they are still waiting for that low price ..

since real estate is slow to respond what may not be on the radar is people taking this new wealth and buying cheap real estate that hasnt budged much yet .......... will it happen ? , beats the crap out of me


could it happen , absolutely...


the bottom line is none of us have the magic crystal ball to tell us whats next..

i know if i could afford a house and wanted one to live in , the hell with what the markets doing, its my home, im going to live in it and enjoy it and i want it....

like any asset class if i have to sell in the short term i have to be prepared that i may lose money, but thats true of any asset class,.... if i cant deal with that then rent for now or dont buy ever ...

[mathjak107]

Originally Posted by zulu400

Ok, great, long haul investing is good.... I'm sure this thread is not intended to discuss that...
For a person like me.... who may sell again in 5-7 years.... is your advice to "just do it" right now ? And would you have advised the same to a buyer like me in 2007 too ?

Another thing.... "i make sure its the best deal i can get, the best value" .... this really contradicts with your "just do it" principle don't you think ?

no it dosnt, i dont time things based on when the markets may have bottomed... quite the contrary, i buy based on the best deal i can muster at the time im making the deal.

we wanted an eventual retirement home in pennsylvania for when we leave nyc.... homes dropped in the area we looked at quite a bit and employment was tough... i saw some value in starting to look.

a little over a year ago we went and looked at homes, we found one we loved.... i low balled the owner with what i thought left quite a bit of equity on the table for me as a cushion..

little did i know he lost his job and had to sell...after some brief negotiating trying to get us up he took the offer... we bought it..

did i care if things may fall further?, nooooooooo .... did i get the best deal i could at the time ? absolutley

do i feel any different or care abut the value of my home today? not a drop.. i couldnt care less what its worth, its my home.. whether it rose 100,000 or dropped its irrelevant. im going to live there.


if i was concerned i may have to sell early and loose money well then i wouldnt buy , maybe id wait until things turned around and end up paying more for the house or even have lost the house to someone who bought earlier then me... but thats not me, if i want to deal i do it. it reminds me of every one holding off buying a com****r in the early days as each model got better and better... those of us that bought had a blast playing all kinds of advanced video games and doing things with the internet that no one else ever imagined..... for some of us the fact that we could enjoy it now and use it out weighed the fact the next machines were even better..... then we had those that finally jumped in and said man i cant believe we waited so long... this is awesome not having to run to the library to research stuff.... wish we did this sooner...

[mathjak107]

remember what i said earlier, my feeling is buy a house as a place to live , a place to call your own, the security of owning a home, but not as an investment.. there are better more profitable ways to invest then residential real estate .

in fact i can tell you first hand had i took the same amount of money here in nyc and instead of buying my home had i rented and invested that money in the fidelity insight newsletter i have been following for over 20 years i could have subtracted out all the rent i would have paid and had enough to buy over 2 houses today..... so forget renting vs buying as an investment... you may or may not come out ahead

im only mentioning the newsletter because its easily verified as to the performance of the portfolio over the years, not because im recommending it to anyone... we have no way of knowing if future performance will be as good

[mathjak107]

no one in these forums should ever allow anyone to persuade them to do something they arent comfortable with.... the beauty of these forums is the exchange of expierience, knowledge, thoughts and strategys of others...

you then draw your own conclusions based on whats comfortable...

when you draw your own conclusions be aware of 1 thing... in fact if you get only one thing out of all the postings on these forums remember this:

according to research done using brain scans and mri's by jason zweig in his book YOUR MONEY YOUR BRAIN we as humans are flawed.

although we like the excitment of making money built in to our brains is a mechanisim that likes making money but hates loosing money even more.... the fear of loosing money is so much greater we naturally sell and buy at the wrong times... we panic in down markets, we get euphoric when things soar...

that mechanisium will paralyze you with all the negatives of not acting and causing you to believe your own bull-sh*t so you dont act out of fear.

as long as you keep that built in action in the back of your mind when making decions you can think things thru better.

ps its an excellent book for any investor to read

[modmondays]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

no one in these forums should ever allow anyone to persuade them to do something they arent comfortable with.... the beauty of these forums is the exchange of expierience, knowledge, thoughts and strategys of others...

you then draw your own conclusions based on whats comfortable...

when you draw your own conclusions be aware of 1 thing... in fact if you get only one thing out of all the postings on these forums remember this:

according to research done using brain scans and mri's by jason zweig in his book YOUR MONEY YOUR BRAIN we as humans are flawed.

although we like the excitment of making money built in to our brains is a mechanisim that likes making money but hates loosing money even more.... the fear of loosing money is so much greater we naturally sell and buy at the wrong times... we panic in down markets, we get euphoric when things soar...

that mechanisium will paralyze you with all the negatives of not acting and causing you to believe your own bull-sh*t so you dont act out of fear.

as long as you keep that built in action in the back of your mind when making decions you can think things thru better.

ps its an excellent book for any investor to read

I do appreciate all of your insights here - - although I dont agree with some of it.

Good Posts. Thanks.

[mathjak107]

Originally Posted by modmondays

I do appreciate all of your insights here - - although I dont agree with some of it.

Good Posts. Thanks.

id worry if everyone agreed with everything anyone said... it means they are not thinking on their own

[zulu400]

Originally Posted by modmondays

I do appreciate all of your insights here - - although I dont agree with some of it.

Good Posts. Thanks.

Ditto.... It felt like re-visiting economics 101 by reading the posts.... I felt sometimes it was relevant to the discussions and sometimes it was not. Thanks a bunch.

[mathjak107]

All you have to remember about economics 101 is THESE MARKETS CAN REMAIN IRRATIONAL ALOT LONGER THEN ANY OF US CAN REMAIN SOLVENT...

and just when you think you got it all figured out something from left field will total blow that forecast out of the water....

class done!

[Transpl]

8 Million people live in NYC with 66% of the residents being renters, the highest ratio in the country (Quick Facts: Resident Demographics - NMHC.org).

If you own a decent home in a decent neighborhood on Long Island, you have what millions of people are dreaming of having some day. Sure not all renters want to own, and even less covet Long Island as a place to move, but there is no lack of demand for suburban quality of life in the metro area.

Older people will continue to sell and move down south. Children of LI homeowner will be priced out and have to move and or rent. At the same time, city residents get married, have kids and dream of owning a home with a yard and safe schools.

I don't believe we need much to kick-start the market frankly, certainly not a freefall of pricing. There is and will always be enough demand to keep prices from crashing.