LI down 23% in home value in 2009? (Long Beach, Nassau: oceanfront, apartments, renter)

[ianwaters]

Bloomberg seems to feel this entire new generation of buyers will not see those high prices again

U.S. Home Prices May Be Lost for a Generation: John F. Wasik - Bloomberg.com

[ClarkStreetKid]

Same here rockerfella. If you want to start a business there's plenty of office space available. We just had a bank foreclose on a new planned community this week, not sure what's going to happen to the handful of folks who already moved in. So far I've seen everything from a mansion to a shack in foreclosure. Living paycheck to paycheck and one bill from being broke seems to ignore a persons social status.

Ian,
I hope Bloomberg is right and my kids won't see those prices.

[djdairyp]

Originally Posted by ianwaters

Bloomberg seems to feel this entire new generation of buyers will not see those high prices again

U.S. Home Prices May Be Lost for a Generation: John F. Wasik - Bloomberg.com

great article,

my favorite lines

"there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that boomers are dumping their four- and five-bedroom suburban homes for two- and three- bedroom condominiums ... It’s also unlikely that the “Generation X,” born between 1965 and 1976 (or more derisively called “baby busters”), will bid up home prices. They are only 44 million strong, not as wealthy and even more in debt from college loans"

"For most homeowners, wealth building and retention may depend more on a diversified, inflation-indexed bond portfolio than on real estate. This new reality, though, may be lost on those still trying to price their homes at 2006 levels"

Sounds just like what people on this board are talking about these past months.

[Elke Mariotti]

Originally Posted by shahtech

I am trying to refinance and my home value dropped by 10%.

It is causing big problems in refincance process.

It all depends on when you bought your house. My neighbor is refinancing without a problem.

[zulu400]

Its hard to believe though that it will fall that much in one year.... well if it does then its great as I've just started looking out. I had a couple of REA's tell me that there is a full offer on a couple of houses i was interested in.... and I saw those houses re-listed with different agents within a month.... its really amazing.... and the funny thing is they tried to scare me saying they have started to see bidding wars already.... can't blame them though, they are trying to survive in this tough market, although it seems unethical and wrong to me.

[ianwaters]

Originally Posted by zulu400

Its hard to believe though that it will fall that much in one year.... well if it does then its great as I've just started looking out. I had a couple of REA's tell me that there is a full offer on a couple of houses i was interested in.... and I saw those houses re-listed with different agents within a month.... its really amazing.... and the funny thing is they tried to scare me saying they have started to see bidding wars already.... can't blame them though, they are trying to survive in this tough market, although it seems unethical and wrong to me.

I looked at a place that has been on the market for 7 months in Valley Stream this past weekend that I thought was nice but it was about $20k overpriced. I said that I am not in a rush and I will talk with my wife and see where it goes. She said, "Offers have been put in and they are close to making a deal." I said right to her - "Want to bet me $100 that it will still be on the market in July?" She didn't see my humor but I would bet anyone that if I don't put an offer in that house (I'm not) will still be on the market.

I hate the fact that REA's can just say an offer has been made and see no repercussion for lying. It happens everyday and there is no denying it! I would love to see a law that restricts this type of selling. When I hear an offer is in, I lose interest. When I hear I should throw my hat in, I know there is no other offer.

[zulu400]

Originally Posted by ianwaters

I looked at a place that has been on the market for 7 months in Valley Stream this past weekend that I thought was nice but it was about $20k overpriced. I said that I am not in a rush and I will talk with my wife and see where it goes. She said, "Offers have been put in and they are close to making a deal." I said right to her - "Want to bet me $100 that it will still be on the market in July?" She didn't see my humor but I would bet anyone that if I don't put an offer in that house (I'm not) will still be on the market.

I hate the fact that REA's can just say an offer has been made and see no repercussion for lying. It happens everyday and there is no denying it! I would love to see a law that restricts this type of selling. When I hear an offer is in, I lose interest. When I hear I should throw my hat in, I know there is no other offer.

Hi Ianwaters.... you are probably right, but you need to also make a judgement on how much is it overpriced.... you just said $20K.... well .... $20K on a $300K house is different than $20K on a $500K house.... the $500K house probably has a better chance of being sold than the $300K.... not that either will sell in this market... but just saying.
And I totally agree on the fact that the buyers need some kind of confidence on the sellers agents words, in any case when they tell there is an offer I too take the back seat.... no hurry for now, and I don't get attached to a house emotionally.

[dman72]

Real Estate agents should consider how stupid they sound every time they use the "there's an offer for the full price" tactic..nobody believes it, so just stop. It'd be so refreshing to meed a real estate agent who doesn't lie.

[ianwaters]

Originally Posted by zulu400

Hi Ianwaters.... you are probably right, but you need to also make a judgement on how much is it overpriced.... you just said $20K.... well .... $20K on a $300K house is different than $20K on a $500K house.... the $500K house probably has a better chance of being sold than the $300K.... not that either will sell in this market... but just saying.
And I totally agree on the fact that the buyers need some kind of confidence on the sellers agents words, in any case when they tell there is an offer I too take the back seat.... no hurry for now, and I don't get attached to a house emotionally.

It was listed at $390k actually - but I feel $20K is $20k if the house is under $800k. I know where you are coming from though and see your point - each person has different perspectives I guess. I see $20k as a cool weekend car I can't buy now whether the house is $300k or $500k

[WJFM]

While the article does paint a picture, it has plenty of flaws.

It does not take into account that rents are still high in the NY area. At current house prices, it seems like it will be cheaper to own than to rent.. provided you can get a loan and come up with a down-payment. 2-bed apts in Nassau county are still renting for 1600-2k a month, while buying a 4bed house for 420k will put your mortgage and taxes at about 3k a month.. and with tax deductions, its almost the same as renting. The fact that there is less construction in NY could also mean that there is less land available and its more expensive to construct here.

The article does not account for immigrants from places like India, China and Korea. They are usually highly educated, upper-middle class and I see many of them buying houses in good school districts. There are millions of them, and depending on US immigration policy in the future, there could be millions more.

Originally Posted by ianwaters

Bloomberg seems to feel this entire new generation of buyers will not see those high prices again

U.S. Home Prices May Be Lost for a Generation: John F. Wasik - Bloomberg.com