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Old 06-24-2009, 08:22 AM
 
Location: Little Babylon
5,072 posts, read 9,144,775 times
Reputation: 2612

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Quote:
Originally Posted by propain View Post
You are absolutely getting a return on your investment. Not only are you able to upgrade and enjoy your home, but the money you put into it will increase you home value by a % based on the type of work you put it.

The thing your looking for is profit. No, there is no profit on your investment. Putting money into your house is a savings plan for the future. Its one of the best investments you can make if done right.
And I'm sure all those folks whose home values are now underwater would agree with you. Please lay out the % of return on each dollar "invested" into a house and also the cost of ownership of the same home (taxes, cost to maintain, etc).

Quote:
Originally Posted by propain View Post
Cars on the other hand are the worst possible thing you can buy. You purchase one and it does nothing but depreciate and its worth nothing. That is not the case with home upgrades. Putting work into your home guarantees you keep your investment in top condition. In some slim cases the return might even be profit. Depends on the area ive heard of increases in investments on bathroom of 110%.
I know some people who are recent sellers and buyers that will disagree with that. All the kitchen and bathroom upgrades didn't do much to sell their homes in a market where price is king. Why should I settle for your upgrades when I can buy cheaper and then put my own in?


Quote:
Originally Posted by propain View Post
In the end you have to live in it. If you don’t want to put money into your home to make it nice, that’s your choice. I choose to upgrade and make it beautiful. When I sell it the money I put into it will be long paid off but and at the same time I will have enjoyed living there. My equity will also have increased.
My house is already nice, well maintained, I enjoy living in it and it will be paid off within the year. Remember, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.


Long Island jobs | Indeed.com

Economic Dreams - Economic Nightmares: Housing as an 'Investment': Commentary

 
Old 06-24-2009, 08:39 AM
 
95 posts, read 206,844 times
Reputation: 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by propain View Post
Is your opinion based on what everyone else tells you and wishful thinking?
I've been a housing bear ever since 2005, which admittedly is somewhat late. Did it not occur to anyone else that 15-20% YOY appreciation was ridiculous and unsustainable? Up until recently nobody believed me, and so far everything I've predicted has come to pass.

Quote:
Originally Posted by propain View Post
What you people fail to understand is I have no stake in the direct results of this market correction. I am not moving or selling for at least another 20 years. In 20 years my home will be worth WELL over 1 million and I will cash out on 100% of whatever its worth. More is better but its all profit at this point. I make a very solid living and im not in any financial trouble at all.
Ok, I'll grant you your delusions of current home value, accounting for 20 years of inflation and market cycles. However, many people these days thought they were financially savvy and HELOC'd away hundreds of thousands of dollars in improvements, only to find the down market has wiped away any possible short term gains. Then they bail.

Quote:
Originally Posted by propain View Post
Im putting out my theory on what I feel will happen based on my training in the field. Take it or leave it. The funny part is im already correct because you people are here WISHING and HOPING that home prices drop and they aren’t. If you were right you wouldn’t be here complaining.
Home prices will drop, it's only a question of how much and for how long. There's no need for wishing and hoping, or even feeling. It's mathematical fact, and any number of macroeconomic trends can be brought to prove my point. The only thing that could stop them from dropping is hyperinflation. Homes values, like any other market, are based on supply and demand, not "feeling."

Quote:
Originally Posted by propain View Post
You will not see huge 40% drops in housing on LI. LI housing will never be as affordable as you want it to be. Its been that was for 30 years and this crisis will not and is not here to serve your agenda of plummeting prices. You will not see Pre 1995 prices on homes. You need to wake up and smell the coffee. Most of you need this good dose of reality.
I agree, LI housing will never have the same affordability as say, Pennsylvania. However, home prices are historically tied to personal income, and personal income on Long Island is quite high. People making average salaries should be able to afford the average home. This is the way housing markets have always worked, even on Long Island.

A good measure is whether the people selling the home could afford to pay the mortgage and taxes based on the value they're selling it for.

Again, during the boom home prices nearly tripled since 1998. Do you not think this was ridiculous as well? Or are market moves that go up never ridiculous, only the ones that go down? I don't think we'll ever see pre-1995 prices on homes. Accounting for inflation, prices from 2001 to 2002 are fair market value.

It is demonstrable that in every economic bubble there is full retrenchment to the mean, and occasionally an overshot to the downside. I can dig up examples for you if you want.
 
Old 06-24-2009, 09:06 AM
 
Location: Little Babylon
5,072 posts, read 9,144,775 times
Reputation: 2612
For the heck of it I looked up some recent home sales records, and from what I can tell home values in some areas have already fallen by over 20%.
 
Old 06-24-2009, 09:45 AM
 
Location: Nassau County, Long Island
240 posts, read 237,085 times
Reputation: 27
Businessweek last week had an in-depth real estate analysis. Many of the economic experts in that piece agree a 10%-15% continued drop in home prices over the next year, with some stagnation until 2012 when home prices are able to creep back up to the levels they are at now.

Translation: sellers should sell now unless they can afford to hang onto their place for another 5 or so years because that is when prices reach levels that are above what they are today.
 
Old 06-24-2009, 10:03 AM
 
167 posts, read 383,380 times
Reputation: 67
Home values on LI have probably dropped about 20-25% since the peak (just a rough estimate). I spent the last 9 months looking at local prices closely. And even though I just purchased (at a great rate ), I am prepared for another 5-10% drop in the near term. That's because I bought the house primarily as a place to raise my family!

The real issue is jobs, jobs, jobs. The artificial rise in the financial sector and the FIRE economy (basically a legal ponzi scheme if you look into it closely), has papered over some fundamental weaknesses in America's role in the global economy that must be adressed before a REAL recovery will occur in jobs and then in housing.

So far no real reforms have been made, and the powers that be are holding their breath for the next bubble. That will lead to more stagnation, more budget shortfall's or a possible double dipped recession. These CEO's can still reap huge bonuses for wrecking a company and an economy....
 
Old 06-24-2009, 10:43 AM
 
149 posts, read 351,343 times
Reputation: 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by ClarkStreetKid View Post
And I'm sure all those folks whose home values are now underwater would agree with you. Please lay out the % of return on each dollar "invested" into a house and also the cost of ownership of the same home (taxes, cost to maintain, etc).



I know some people who are recent sellers and buyers that will disagree with that. All the kitchen and bathroom upgrades didn't do much to sell their homes in a market where price is king. Why should I settle for your upgrades when I can buy cheaper and then put my own in?



My house is already nice, well maintained, I enjoy living in it and it will be paid off within the year. Remember, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.


Long Island jobs | Indeed.com

Economic Dreams - Economic Nightmares: Housing as an 'Investment': Commentary

I really don’t care if you upgrade your home or not. Honestly, im not trying to convince you. What im telling you is home improvements add value to your home. You can spew off all you want that YOU don’t prefer to add money to your home. That doesn’t make the fact that the money you put into a home you will most likely get back if its not over the top. That is the point. You cant deny that point. Your entire argument is that YOU would rather keep the money than invest it into your property. IT has NOTHING to do with the fact that money into a home increases its value.
 
Old 06-24-2009, 10:56 AM
 
149 posts, read 351,343 times
Reputation: 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by MiddleIslander View Post

Ok, I'll grant you your delusions of current home value, accounting for 20 years of inflation and market cycles.
You don’t even know where I live. This comment alone makes you sound so foolish without having the data to back it up.

I don’t need your grant, If I sold my house today I would get 700K easy. Im in a different market. 700K is a low estimate on my home. The houses in my neighborhood are selling not listing for between 750-2000000. LOL.

There are plenty of wealthy areas on LI my friend. Im sorry you cant wrap your brain around that fact. According to you everything on LI should sell for 400K because the average salary on LI is low. Get over it. There are places on LI that are still priced very high. If you dont know this fact you are not very good at what you do.
 
Old 06-24-2009, 11:15 AM
 
Location: Little Babylon
5,072 posts, read 9,144,775 times
Reputation: 2612
750-2000000 is quite the price spread. Where about are you located?
 
Old 06-24-2009, 11:17 AM
 
Location: Nassau, Long Island, NY
16,408 posts, read 33,303,161 times
Reputation: 7340
Quote:
Originally Posted by propain View Post
You don’t even know where I live. This comment alone makes you sound so foolish without having the data to back it up.

I don’t need your grant, If I sold my house today I would get 700K easy. Im in a different market. 700K is a low estimate on my home. The houses in my neighborhood are selling not listing for between 750-2000000. LOL.

There are plenty of wealthy areas on LI my friend. Im sorry you cant wrap your brain around that fact. According to you everything on LI should sell for 400K because the average salary on LI is low. Get over it. There are places on LI that are still priced very high. If you dont know this fact you are not very good at what you do.
You will only get what a buyer is willing to pay for it, so since you are not selling, you can't be sure of anything, can you?

Put a FSBO ad out there and list your house for whatever you think it's worth. Then get back to us and tell us if you got any offers for that price.
 
Old 06-24-2009, 11:24 AM
 
Location: I'm gettin' there
2,666 posts, read 7,335,822 times
Reputation: 841
Quote:
Originally Posted by I_Love_LI_but View Post
You will only get what a buyer is willing to pay for it, so since you are not selling, you can't be sure of anything, can you?

Put a FSBO ad out there and list your house for whatever you think it's worth. Then get back to us and tell us if you got any offers for that price.
LOL !! that is right, house is worth only what the buyers think, not what the sellers dream of.

On a lighter note.... How many propain objects does it take to create a bubble ?
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