NY Housing Article: Any thoughts? (Holbrook, Massapequa: loan, homes, neighborhoods)

[MiddleIslander]

Originally Posted by propain

You don’t even know where I live. This comment alone makes you sound so foolish without having the data to back it up.

Doesn't matter where you live, seller's expectations all across the market are delusional. That's why it is safe to generalize. If you compare seller's expectations to actual sale prices today, the difference is over 20%.

Originally Posted by propain

I don’t need your grant, If I sold my house today I would get 700K easy. Im in a different market. 700K is a low estimate on my home. The houses in my neighborhood are selling not listing for between 750-2000000. LOL.

Perhaps, but you won't get $700k tomorrow. It doesn't matter what things are selling for in your neighborhood today.

Originally Posted by propain

There are plenty of wealthy areas on LI my friend. Im sorry you cant wrap your brain around that fact. According to you everything on LI should sell for 400K because the average salary on LI is low. Get over it. There are places on LI that are still priced very high. If you dont know this fact you are not very good at what you do.

No, I've never said that. I am just making examples using the median values because it's the easiest with the most widely available data. Perhaps you don't realize that the higher standard deviations are losing value faster, and staying on the market longer than ones lower than the median?

Do you somehow believe higher value homes hold up better than lower valued ones? It's quite the opposite. Higher valued homes are dropping the fastest in this market.

[propain]

Originally Posted by MiddleIslander

Doesn't matter where you live, seller's expectations all across the market are delusional. That's why it is safe to generalize. If you compare seller's expectations to actual sale prices today, the difference is over 20%.



Perhaps, but you won't get $700k tomorrow. It doesn't matter what things are selling for in your neighborhood today.



No, I've never said that. I am just making examples using the median values because it's the easiest with the most widely available data. Perhaps you don't realize that the higher standard deviations are losing value faster, and staying on the market longer than ones lower than the median?

Do you somehow believe higher value homes hold up better than lower valued ones? It's quite the opposite. Higher valued homes are dropping the fastest in this market.

I’ve taken quite the hit in my home value. Of course most of it was artificial inflation. I know the higher values have taken a big hit. As stated my home was worth 900K at least during the bubble. Now 700K. 200K less. 20% loss. It might go down a little more but im in a very good area so I don’t see much more of a drop.

As stated by me many times 5-10% more on houses depending on where they are. Suffolk county has only seen a 17% drop and those houses were COMPLETELY inflated during the bubble. 750-800K homes in Holbrook. They still are. Those houses will drop at least 10% more in Suffolk in the good areas or expensive areas. The lower priced areas will only drop 5% more.

Im sorry, that’s a reality for LI. You can pull out all the articles you want, if they dont specifically pertain to LI NY they arent accurate. It’s a different market here than most and always will be. If you think you will buy a house tomorrow for 40% less you are only deluding yourself.

I guess people are highly offended by this prospect. That is why they are now throwing insults and calling me names. Its sad really. If the doom sayers were right we would be seeing a big decline right now instead of a 2% drop in housing on LI in most areas in the past year. Sorry.

[Crookhaven]

Originally Posted by propain

I’ve taken quite the hit in my home value. Of course most of it was artificial inflation. I know the higher values have taken a big hit. As stated my home was worth 900K at least during the bubble. Now 700K. 200K less. 20% loss. It might go down a little more but im in a very good area so I don’t see much more of a drop.

As stated by me many times 5-10% more on houses depending on where they are. Suffolk county has only seen a 17% drop and those houses were COMPLETELY inflated during the bubble. 750-800K homes in Holbrook. They still are. Those houses will drop at least 10% more in Suffolk in the good areas or expensive areas. The lower priced areas will only drop 5% more.

Im sorry, that’s a reality for LI. You can pull out all the articles you want, if they dont specifically pertain to LI NY they arent accurate. It’s a different market here than most and always will be. If you think you will buy a house tomorrow for 40% less you are only deluding yourself.

I guess people are highly offended by this prospect. That is why they are now throwing insults and calling me names. Its sad really. If the doom sayers were right we would be seeing a big decline right now instead of a 2% drop in housing on LI in most areas in the past year. Sorry.

Who the F paid 800k for Holbrook?

Crooks

[propain]

Originally Posted by Crookhaven

Who the F paid 800k for Holbrook?

Crooks

During the bubble? Many. New construction homes in the Sachem SD area South of Sunrise boomed big time.

[propain]

Another post called my attention to Rocky Point. Wow there are some affordable homes in that area. The first 2 pages on MLS are all under 200K. What’s the catch? Bad SD? Bad area?

Are people saying those houses are going to drop 40% in value?

[I_Love_LI_but]

Originally Posted by propain

Another post called my attention to Rocky Point. Wow there are some affordable homes in that area. The first 2 pages on MLS are all under 200K. What’s the catch? Bad SD? Bad area?

Rocky Point was originally a seasonal community of summer bungalow cottages. Some of those are still standing and are what makes up the low-priced homes you are referring to above. Rocky Point is not a bad area. Their school district ranks near the bottom numbers-wise when it comes to high school comparisons on LI, but supposedly they do have a good special ed program and the elementary schools are satisfactory to residents.

Originally Posted by propain

Are people saying those houses are going to drop 40% in value?

We are getting away from the orginal article cited. The original article actually did not even mention LI; but alluded to it (as LI is legitimately part of the NYC Metro Area). Their prediction of a 40% drop was IMO an over-broad generalization of a very large area. They consider the NYC Metropolitan area to include Atlantic City, NJ, for example.

[propain]

Originally Posted by I_Love_LI_but

Rocky Point was originally a seasonal community of summer bungalow cottages. Some of those are still standing and are what makes up the low-priced homes you are referring to above. Rocky Point is not a bad area. Their school district ranks near the bottom numbers-wise when it comes to high school comparisons on LI, but supposedly they do have a good special ed program and the elementary schools are satisfactory to residents.



We are getting away from the orginal article cited. The original article actually did not even mention LI; but alluded to it (as LI is legitimately part of the NYC Metro Area). Their prediction of a 40% drop was IMO an over-broad generalization of a very large area. They consider the NYC Metropolitan area to include Atlantic City, NJ, for example.

Thx for the info.

I agree with you about the article. Im trying to figure out why the people on here agree with it. Other than hope that is for people who cant afford a home in a decent area.

[djdairyp]

Originally Posted by propain

Thx for the info.

I agree with you about the article. Im trying to figure out why the people on here agree with it. Other than hope that is for people who cant afford a home in a decent area.

I am not sure that anyone actually agreed with the 40% figure, and I think if you polled people most would think its an overshoot. Most people simply agree that further declines are to be expected in contrast to the speculators of a bottom. To put a percentage figure on it is a shot in the dark.

[MiddleIslander]

Some food for thought, courtesy of Deutche Bank

http://matrix.millersamuel.com/wp-co...20Jun%2009.pdf

An excerpt:

Nassau-Suffolk County, NY MSA (Long Island) is next on our list of MSAs with the largest expected future depreciation. Apart from affordability, the other risk factors that we consider are all relatively good (particularly unemployment). However, we believe that prices will have to fall by 19.2% just to bring affordability back to historic highs, and, including the other factors, believe that current-to-trough decline for Long Island of -28.0% is in the cards.

[dman72]

Originally Posted by MiddleIslander

Some food for thought, courtesy of Deutche Bank

http://matrix.millersamuel.com/wp-co...20Jun%2009.pdf

An excerpt:

Nassau-Suffolk County, NY MSA (Long Island) is next on our list of MSAs with the largest expected future depreciation. Apart from affordability, the other risk factors that we consider are all relatively good (particularly unemployment). However, we believe that prices will have to fall by 19.2% just to bring affordability back to historic highs, and, including the other factors, believe that current-to-trough decline for Long Island of -28.0% is in the cards.

They forecast a 19.2 drop still to come on Long Island.