NY Housing Article: Any thoughts? (Southampton, Westbury: home, buyers, closing)

[56 Fighter]

Originally Posted by dman72

They forecast a 19.2 drop still to come on Long Island.

I think Deutche Bank is just saying that because they can't afford a house here!

[NHP Guy]

Originally Posted by dman72

They forecast a 19.2 drop still to come on Long Island.

Which is about in line with what Moody's recently said at a conference I attended a month ago.

[dman72]

Originally Posted by 56 Fighter

I think Deutche Bank is just saying that because they can't afford a house here!

Yeah, Deutch bank is a loser, always will be a loser, and could never afford my cape in Massapequa that I think is worth 1 million because my neighbor got 600K for his in 2006 from buyers who got an interest only loan, and I put a marble toilet bowl mine!!!

[Jrprofess]

Originally Posted by propain

I’ve taken quite the hit in my home value. Of course most of it was artificial inflation. I know the higher values have taken a big hit. As stated my home was worth 900K at least during the bubble. Now 700K. 200K less. 20% loss. It might go down a little more but im in a very good area so I don’t see much more of a drop.

As stated by me many times 5-10% more on houses depending on where they are. Suffolk county has only seen a 17% drop and those houses were COMPLETELY inflated during the bubble. 750-800K homes in Holbrook. They still are. Those houses will drop at least 10% more in Suffolk in the good areas or expensive areas. The lower priced areas will only drop 5% more.

Im sorry, that’s a reality for LI. You can pull out all the articles you want, if they dont specifically pertain to LI NY they arent accurate. It’s a different market here than most and always will be. If you think you will buy a house tomorrow for 40% less you are only deluding yourself.

I guess people are highly offended by this prospect. That is why they are now throwing insults and calling me names. Its sad really. If the doom sayers were right we would be seeing a big decline right now instead of a 2% drop in housing on LI in most areas in the past year. Sorry.

I think anyone on this forum would agree that Long Island is, and has always been more expensive than most areas...but even by those HIGHER expense standards the market flew well above the historical appreciation for this area. Even if you start with an expensive area (and it does not matter what price you start at), and looked at the typical annual appreciation, the period from late '99 to 2006+ was appreciating at 100% in some instances. It is a mistake to get caught up in the actual price of the homes. Percentages, relative to the decades of appreciation of homes across all of this expensive region were severely out of whack. Which is why I think you can easily see a correction overall of 40% in some communities. The 900k home in 2005-06, based on this regions norms (specific to long island) was probably better than 100% higher than its market value in 1999-2000. This region will stubbornly refuse to fall back to the norms it needs to overall to correct pricing in many communities, but a home for 700k for example could easily sit at 700k for the next 5 years. Which is the same as dropping down another 20+% in some cases.

[propain]

Originally Posted by ClarkStreetKid

750-2000000 is quite the price spread. Where about are you located?

Roslyn Estates

[ClarkStreetKid]

Originally Posted by propain

Roslyn Estates

Wow, very diverse in regards to housing with some beautiful older homes and some so-so McMansions. The prices seem to be all over the map, I see one house selling for $795,000 that's surrounded by houses estimated over 1M.

Most neighborhoods have houses that are a little more in line with each other. I was looking at my wife's old hood and all the houses were about 1.5M except for some clown who knocked down what was there in 06 and put up a 7SF McMansion for 2.9M. I'm not sure if it's ever been lived in.

[propain]

Originally Posted by dman72

Yeah, Deutch bank is a loser, always will be a loser, and could never afford my cape in Massapequa that I think is worth 1 million because my neighbor got 600K for his in 2006 from buyers who got an interest only loan, and I put a marble toilet bowl mine!!!

Sounds like a couple of people I know on this forum. Any relation?

[propain]

Originally Posted by ClarkStreetKid

Wow, very diverse in regards to housing with some beautiful older homes and some so-so McMansions. The prices seem to be all over the map, I see one house selling for $795,000 that's surrounded by houses estimated over 1M.

Most neighborhoods have houses that are a little more in line with each other. I was looking at my wife's old hood and all the houses were about 1.5M except for some clown who knocked down what was there in 06 and put up a 7SF McMansion for 2.9M. I'm not sure if it's ever been lived in.

A great area indeed. Some over done homes. There aren't many for sale in my area. You should see the homes that aren't for sale. Some REALLY nice places. Old money.

You should have also seen the prices during the bubble. Some homes listing for 2.5 mil and up AND THEY SOLD for that much. Poor bastards who bought them. They are long gone.

[modmondays]

Originally Posted by propain

A great area indeed. Some over done homes. There aren't many for sale in my area. You should see the homes that aren't for sale. Some REALLY nice places. Old money.

You should have also seen the prices during the bubble. Some homes listing for 2.5 mil and up AND THEY SOLD for that much. Poor bastards who bought them. They are long gone.

Can you tell me more about Ros. Estates?

I love Roslyn Estates area. Problem is my wife "hears" so many bad connotations about "Roslyn" in general, it is a near impossible sell for me on that area. We have looked at a few houses in Estates: I particularly like the middle of the area around the hilly parts of The Serpentine....not crazy about the "flatter" areas on the boundaries. Taxes are high and I would think you dont get as much for the $$$ as you would in say East Hills with the park. How is the commute to NYC? Can you even get parking in Port Wash or is it easier to take the Bus from C. Morley park? Can you tell me more about the Estates to try to sell the wife on it (I was sort of surprised about the #6 Ranking in Biz Week actually).....

thanks for help

[propain]

Originally Posted by modmondays

Can you tell me more about Ros. Estates?

I love Roslyn Estates area. Problem is my wife "hears" so many bad connotations about "Roslyn" in general, it is a near impossible sell for me on that area. We have looked at a few houses in Estates: I particularly like the middle of the area around the hilly parts of The Serpentine....not crazy about the "flatter" areas on the boundaries. Taxes are high and I would think you dont get as much for the $$$ as you would in say East Hills with the park. How is the commute to NYC? Can you even get parking in Port Wash or is it easier to take the Bus from C. Morley park? Can you tell me more about the Estates to try to sell the wife on it (I was sort of surprised about the #6 Ranking in Biz Week actually).....

thanks for help

The bad connotations are true in some of the areas. There is a lot of money in Roslyn. So keeping up with the Joneses runs pretty wild. It’s a big Jewish community also which is fine, but it’s a big rich Jewish community so you have a lot of fran Drescher accents in almost every home. Ever hear Eddie Murphy’s impression of an old Jewish man? Its strange to see that coming out of the mouth of a 35 year old man, In Roslyn its common.. I am not Jewish so I tend to get the cold shoulder from many in the area anyway as if im not part of the club. It can get quite annoying and I don’t associate with people like that anyhow.


House keepers run the entire place. If you were to call in sick one day and watch the streets all you see is a parade of house keepers walking the children around or driving the family SUV's to and from schools.

Security is excellent. They have cars driving around the place 24/7 and surveillance. Its quite reassuring when you see a strange van you don’t recognized pull up and 10 seconds later security is all over it.

The rest of the normal people are fine. I tend to tell people if you are looking to move to Roslyn move to Roslyn Heights. Its has more of a "Normal" crowd with the same money and security.

The commute to the city is awesome. I can be in the city in 20 mins driving on a good day.

If you do want to move to the estates stay within the hilly parts. The flat surroundings are nice, but don’t have anywhere near the value of the hilly areas.

I can understand why your wife has her reservations. If you have the money to move into Roslyn I would probably look more into Brookville outskirts possibly. Its more of a diverse area. Depending on what your looking for. If you’re a wealthy or semi wealthy Jewish family you will love it.