NY Housing Article: Any thoughts? (New York, Yonkers: appointed, 2010, apartment)

[propain]

Originally Posted by zulu400

you are right on, and this is really the main thing.... you can distort the trend by 2-3 more or less sales.... that is why its important to kinda compare sales of similar houses, and only people who know the houses there OR those who have been actively looking to buy there for a year or so can give the "real" picture as to how things have changed, just the sale price is only half the picture. As you can see from the graph provided, 20+ houses have a median of 700k.... and 5 houses make up the 800k median, thats 75% less data.

As I have said before just because one or two 1.2 Mil house sold for 1 mil, and that (1 mil) being more than the median price doesn't mean the homes are appreciating (maybe to the untrained eye), but its actually heading in the opposite direction.

No one said that.

[propain]

Originally Posted by ClarkStreetKid

You also have to figure in the diversity of houses and lot sizes for an area. It's easy to see a trend on Clark Street as all the houses are mostly the same, but if you have everything from an old summer bungalow to a sprawling estate then to see the trend gets a bit tougher.

Ya think?


This thread has reach the end of its life.

We have different opinions and now somehow Roslyn is the center of the universe. I was simply using it as an example of how ONE area wont see a 40% decline. It wasn't being used as an example for all of LI.

[MiddleIslander]

It has reached the end of its life only because you have been proven thoroughly wrong. :P

[ClarkStreetKid]

Originally Posted by propain

We have different opinions and now somehow Roslyn is the center of the universe. I was simply using it as an example of how ONE area wont see a 40% decline. It wasn't being used as an example for all of LI.

You're right. The article included quite a bit of geography and never mentioned the Island, though I think it's included in the area in question. Though the Island is a distinct place there's a lot of economic diversity spread across it so some areas will be hit hard and others hardly at all. Here's an example of about a 50% drop in price though it's over a three year time period.

From NewsDay
Celebrities have real estate woes, too -- Newsday.com

In this real estate market, however, even celebrities have been forced to slash prices or wait out the downturn, just like everyone else. Consider former New York Met Edgardo Alfonzo, who only recently went into contract on his Little Neck mansion. Alfonzo's home was on the market three years, and the infielder snagged a buyer only after he lowered his price by more than half - from $8 million to $3.8 million.

[propain]

Originally Posted by MiddleIslander

It has reached the end of its life only because you have been proven thoroughly wrong. :P

Where? Please show me where. Some of you are clueless buyers who are hoping and praying house prices will drop so you can afford on LI. You are speculating that they will drop. If you were right they would be going down right now. They are not. They have stabilized.

Keep praying. Ill stick with the facts in front of me.

[propain]

Originally Posted by ClarkStreetKid

You're right. The article included quite a bit of geography and never mentioned the Island, though I think it's included in the area in question. Though the Island is a distinct place there's a lot of economic diversity spread across it so some areas will be hit hard and others hardly at all. Here's an example of about a 50% drop in price though it's over a three year time period.

From NewsDay
Celebrities have real estate woes, too -- Newsday.com

Agreed there will be places on the island that had bigger artificial inflation. No argument from me. The argument from me is that we wont see an across the board 40% drop in the rest of the market as the orignal poster alluded to by linking that article. Others have also out right said that LI needs a 40% drop across the board. Some people on this forum actually believe that will indeed happen. Im just trying to let them know its a prayer that will never be answered.

They also say I have an agenda. But they don't? Of course I want to see the value of my property go up and help secure my retirement later. Sadly that wont be for another 20 years so my current agenda is purely observational. Theirs on the other hand serves their current and immediate situation. So of course they want 40% drops. Of course they want it to happen tomorrow. How much you wanna bet they see it my way the day after they close? Or when the neighborhood they just bought into for 40% less than it was worth today gets a nice dose of crime, drugs and gang activity?

I'm also stating that NOW is a good time to buy. They sit back with their backs against the wall siting articles that have nothing to do with LI or the entire state of NY as a whole and think they will see 40% drops so they will wait. They will price themselves out of the market due to 5-10% more in drops in SOME areas (The areas that aren't as desirable to begin with) and interest rates with go up to 8% pricing them completely out of the home.

So good luck to all who are waiting. Ill be here same time next year to say "I told ya so" and im sure they will hate me again at that time for saying so. My opinion unless lined with roses and carried by angel wings is not welcome here because it doesn't serve the reason why most are here. To complain about house prices.

Thank you for a normal reply without insults or sarcasm. I'm sorry if I am harsh but at this point, in this thread, I am tired of being insulted and baited and having nothing done about it.


Cheers.

[WJFM]

Avg Year-on-year price change in Nassau is about -10%.
Nassau Home Prices, Home Values, and Property Values - Zillow Local Info
I am not sure how accurate this is ( especially with East Garden City up 17.5%?) but Jericho being down 8% seems accurate from my local knowledge. Notice how some of the million dollar places are down more than 10%.. Laurel Hollow, Roslyn Estates, Great Neck estates etc. The reason is probably super strict Jumbo loan standards ( Jumbo in LI is defined as loan > 729k). People have to come up with atleast 30% downpayment for these, and pay an interest of 6.5-7% on these loans ( compared to 5.25% for conforming loans). I have seen some homes listed for more than a million just stay listed for that price for 8 months now.

[propain]

Originally Posted by WJFM

Avg Year-on-year price change in Nassau is about -10%.
Nassau Home Prices, Home Values, and Property Values - Zillow Local Info
I am not sure how accurate this is ( especially with East Garden City up 17.5%?) but Jericho being down 8% seems accurate from my local knowledge. Notice how some of the million dollar places are down more than 10%.. Laurel Hollow, Roslyn Estates, Great Neck estates etc. The reason is probably super strict Jumbo loan standards ( Jumbo in LI is defined as loan > 729k). People have to come up with atleast 30% downpayment for these, and pay an interest of 6.5-7% on these loans ( compared to 5.25% for conforming loans). I have seen some homes listed for more than a million just stay listed for that price for 8 months now.

Another reason now is the time to buy. That limit is only temporary. It was anything greater than 417K was a jumbo. That new conforming limit wont be around for very long.

[WJFM]

Lets hope for home-owners in long island that this 729 jumbo limit is made permanent by the fed at the end of the year. If it expires and private lenders do not change the strict lending standards for jumbo, it will pretty much price out most middle class buyers in areas where the avg home price is above 600k. How many home buyers can come up with 30% cash ( that's 180K !!!) and buy a 600k home.. not many ( if any at all). That will have devastating impact on home prices on places like Garden city, Jericho etc where the avg home price is above 600k.

[propain]

Originally Posted by WJFM

Lets hope for home-owners in long island that this 729 jumbo limit is made permanent by the fed at the end of the year. If it expires and private lenders do not change the strict lending standards for jumbo, it will pretty much price out most middle class buyers in areas where the avg home price is above 600k. How many home buyers can come up with 30% cash ( that's 180K !!!) and buy a 600k home.. not many ( if any at all). That will have devastating impact on home prices on places like Garden city, Jericho etc where the avg home price is above 600k.

I agree it hurts many. There are ways around it though. Not the best solutions but they work. You take a first and second mortgage right at the closing table. 1 for under the conventional limit and the second at the current 2nd mortgage rate. In almost all cases as long as you are less than 75k on the 2nd loan its a good solution. In this case you can also avoid PMI. Some people even take variable rates on the 2nd loan or lines of credit hoping rates will drop or they try to pay down on 2nd loan faster at lower interest.

As far as the limits sticking I wouldn’t count on it. They have already stated its a temporary solution to fix the deflation of homes. I think it will adjust though. It wont go back to 417K. I bet around 550K if I had to guess. We shall see.