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Old 06-29-2009, 07:57 AM
 
Location: Nassau County, Long Island
240 posts, read 53,795 times
Reputation: 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Burb View Post
The horse is dead, put away the stick. Why is this thread rediculous?
  • You have 2 identical houses on the same street, one priced at 320K, the second priced at 400K. Do predictions that the "housing market" must correct by X percent apply to both houses? Nope. Perhaps the 400K home price needs to drop 20% to 320K, but that 320K house is priced to sell and is as low as it's going to get.
My point? 5 years ago, as is today, as will be In 5 years you're going to have people distressed looking to sell quickly at a lower price than those with a toe in the water and no real incentive to move. Buy the house that is priced to sell. Geez, it aint that hard.
No one is talking about asking prices, we are talking about selling prices. A house that is selling for 320k now will sell for under 300k next year.

 
Old 06-29-2009, 07:59 AM
 
Location: Nassau County, Long Island
240 posts, read 53,795 times
Reputation: 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by glags11 View Post
Looks like your right on Propain! LMAO.
Bloomberg is just jealous because he can't buy a cape in Massapequa, that's why they release an article like that!
 
Old 06-29-2009, 08:20 AM
 
1,615 posts, read 2,094,553 times
Reputation: 1056
Quote:
Originally Posted by 56 Fighter View Post
I think someone is conveniently forgetting about the job market. Unemployment is at what # now??

How about consumer spending, which has all but come to a halt. Temporarily government spending is taking it's place, but that won't last forever. Many economists predict consumer spending to be at a stand-still for a long time until the consumer debt ratio comes back to historic rates. This just means the economy will not recover fully for a while, creating a higher unemployment rate than we've experienced in a while.

The stock market isn't all that stable. Yes, we are not dropping 500-800 points per day anymore, but anyone who works in the market knows that volatility still exists. Wall Street is not hiring back all the laid-off employees. In fact some banks are still laying off indirectly (by not filling open positions).

20% drop is most areas is nice, but still not back to historic trends. Yes, LI has always been an expensive place to live. That's why home prices will fall back to historic trends which, are expensive! Just not as expensive as they are now.

Another little nugget that you forget to mention is how credit, once free-flowing, is much more difficult to come by. When I bought my house I was able to get a mortgage that was 5x my gross income. Now, with even better credit, the best I can do is 3.5x my gross. Guess what that means? Less people bidding up your overpriced property. With less supply and more demand brings lower prices.

That said, now is a good time to buy. But next year will be even better.
Wow....I actually agree 100% with this guy.
 
Old 06-29-2009, 08:22 AM
 
Location: Nassau County, Long Island
240 posts, read 53,795 times
Reputation: 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by LongIslandCitizen View Post
Wow....I actually agree 100% with this guy.
HA HA I think the temp in hell just decreased drastically!!
 
Old 06-29-2009, 08:22 AM
 
491 posts, read 663,144 times
Reputation: 433
Quote:
Originally Posted by 56 Fighter View Post
No one is talking about asking prices, we are talking about selling prices. A house that is selling for 320k now will sell for under 300k next year.

This exactly the the type of rediculous generalization I'm talking about. What if the desperate owners house were priced at 220K, 100K below today's market, will it be worth 200K next year?

Every house, neighborhood and seller is different, painting all with the same broad brush is foolish. I'm not in the market as I own and have no intention of moving, but with the ammount of distressed property owners out there, I suspect deals can be had. Saying a property will be worth X percent less than you pay for it next year is absurd.
 
Old 06-29-2009, 08:24 AM
 
Location: Nassau County, Long Island
240 posts, read 53,795 times
Reputation: 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Burb View Post
This exactly the the type of rediculous generalization I'm talking about. What if the desperate owners house were priced at 220K, 100K below today's market, will it be worth 200K next year?

Every house, neighborhood and seller is different, painting all with the same broad brush is foolish. I'm not in the market as I own and have no intention of moving, but with the ammount of distressed property owners out there, I suspect deals can be had. Saying a property will be worth X percent less than you pay for it next year is absurd.
It's because we are talking in aggregates. Houses have decreased by 20% over the last 2 years, have they not?

By the way... it's ridiculous.
 
Old 06-29-2009, 08:26 AM
 
7,259 posts, read 7,316,975 times
Reputation: 2845
Quote:
Originally Posted by Burb View Post
This exactly the the type of rediculous generalization I'm talking about. What if the desperate owners house were priced at 220K, 100K below today's market, will it be worth 200K next year?

Every house, neighborhood and seller is different, painting all with the same broad brush is foolish. I'm not in the market as I own and have no intention of moving, but with the ammount of distressed property owners out there, I suspect deals can be had. Saying a property will be worth X percent less than you pay for it next year is absurd.
Who in heck is talking about individual houses? We're talking "on average" here. Sheesh.
 
Old 06-29-2009, 08:54 AM
 
491 posts, read 663,144 times
Reputation: 433
Quote:
Originally Posted by 56 Fighter View Post
No one is talking about asking prices, we are talking about selling prices. A house that is selling for 320k now will sell for under 300k next year.
This does not sound like we're discussing housing on aggregate or averages. This looks like a blanket statement, You're saying that if I buy a house for 320K it will be worth 300K or less next year, am I misreading?

Again, put away the broad brushes already.
 
Old 06-29-2009, 08:58 AM
 
Location: Nassau County, Long Island
240 posts, read 53,795 times
Reputation: 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by Burb View Post
This does not sound like we're discussing housing on aggregate or averages. This looks like a blanket statement, You're saying that if I buy a house for 320K it will be worth 300K or less next year, am I misreading?

Again, put away the broad brushes already.
The point flew right over your head.

And yes, if you bought a house foe for 320k today, chances are if you were to re-sell it tomorrow you'd get 300k. Broad brushes cannot be put away... we are talking about the real estate market.
 
Old 06-29-2009, 08:59 AM
 
149 posts, read 40,140 times
Reputation: 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by glags11 View Post
Looks like your right on Propain! LMAO.
Well shall see.

You cant play the waiting game forever. Sure, housing prices might drop 5-10% more but interest rates will increase. Probably to the point where its more expensive to own the home at a lower price than it would be to own it 5-10% higher.


3 signs the economy is rebounding - May. 18, 2009

Quote:
3 signs the economy is rebounding
Will the real estate market rebound soon? - by Melanie Grimes - Helium

Quote:
How does this help? Let's take a home valued at $700,000 with a 5% mortgage.
That same home with a 9% mortgage will cost an additional 20% over the lifetime of the mortgage. That means that if you buy this home, even if prices decrease by 20%, you are still better off financially to buy this home now. Are interest rates going back to 9%? Historically, this has been the case in economic times such as these.

Housing market rebounds to 'pre-recession levels' (http://www.nationalpost.com/story.html?id=1697610 - broken link)

Quote:
Housing market rebounds to 'pre-recession levels'

Housing starts rebound in May while inflation stays in check; signs of stability at low levels


Quote:
Housing starts rebound in May while inflation stays in check; signs of stability at low levels


It all depends on who you listen to.
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