NY Housing Article: Any thoughts? (Yaphank: houses, to buy, incomes)

[ClarkStreetKid]

The renting situation may change as banks figure out how to do an end run around the rules that forbid them from renting out foreclosed properties.

BTW, what kind of surplus of housing does LI have?

[56 Fighter]

Originally Posted by Jrprofess

But for those thinking things do not have further down to go, they are mistaken.

This forum has a vocal contingent of sellers who don't want other sellers to lower their prices. They want to try to wait out buyers. 6 months from now things will get very interesting!

[MiddleIslander]

Originally Posted by ClarkStreetKid

The renting situation may change as banks figure out how to do an end run around the rules that forbid them from renting out foreclosed properties.

BTW, what kind of surplus of housing does LI have?

Almost 2 years of supply at the moment.

End run here: Media: News Releases > Fannie Mae Announces National REO Rental Policy

[Burb]

Originally Posted by 56 Fighter

This forum has a vocal contingent of sellers who don't want other sellers to lower their prices. They want to try to wait out buyers. 6 months from now things will get very interesting!

What's going to happen in 6 months? Inventory levels aren't climbing anymore, prices are pretty stable , sales cycles are just slower than they used to be. This link below shows the last few years of inventory levels and asking prices on LI, The theory that there is a dam that is waiting to break does not hold water, pun intended. Asking prices and inventory levels have held firm or improved YOY, houses are being bought and sold every day.

I have a flawless crystal ball. In 6 month the market will be either a little better, or a little worse. The idea of a finite bottom to housing deflation is a red herring. There is no absolute bottom, we are in a cycle favorable to the buyer. Today, as was 5 years ago, and as will be in 5 years, there are great deals to be found right next to overpriced and current market priced homes.

Buy if it makes sense, rent if it doesn't, but don't count on a landside correction.

HousingTracker.net | Median Home Asking Price & Inventory Data for Long Island, New York

[NHP Guy]

Originally Posted by Jrprofess

Reality in my humble opinion is somewhere in the middle of the small spat going on between the two camps on this thread. 10-15% further down across the entire island and then stagnation as houses are pulled off the market or others need to wait it out...and that wait will be long.

For those investors or first time home buyers concerned that the small ranch rental property they want to buy in Deer Park or Kings Park for 295k will not be available at the same "steal", or that a similar home will be higher priced in a year or two, I say wait. Things are going to mentally bottom on the island another 10-15% (aside from those who MUST sell) and then scrape along the bottom for 3-5 years in my humble opinion. Historical norms still have a ton of catching up to do. I was appraised earlier this year (I did a shorter term refi...had to get some benefit from this bailout )) at 20k less than my spring 2004 purchase price, and was pleasantly surprised. This is my second home, so I carried equity in from my first home sale. But for those thinking things do not have further down to go, they are mistaken.

I completely agree with your position.

[seren77]

Originally Posted by Burb

What's going to happen in 6 months? Inventory levels aren't climbing anymore, prices are pretty stable , sales cycles are just slower than they used to be. This link below shows the last few years of inventory levels and asking prices on LI, The theory that there is a dam that is waiting to break does not hold water, pun intended. Asking prices and inventory levels have held firm or improved YOY, houses are being bought and sold every day.

I have a flawless crystal ball. In 6 month the market will be either a little better, or a little worse. The idea of a finite bottom to housing deflation is a red herring. There is no absolute bottom, we are in a cycle favorable to the buyer. Today, as was 5 years ago, and as will be in 5 years, there are great deals to be found right next to overpriced and current market priced homes.

Buy if it makes sense, rent if it doesn't, but don't count on a landside correction.

HousingTracker.net | Median Home Asking Price & Inventory Data for Long Island, New York

Just to help you improve your crystal ball, one suggestion: Do not use asking prices for any side of the argument in the future. They are so irrelevant, it is not even funny.

[workingclasshero]

What people like 'pro-pain' fail to realize or acknowledge is that housing needs to be relevant to the working class/middle class...just because lawyers, doctors, and stockbrokers are making 6 figures, doesnt mean that the AVERAGE person is

yes long island is a rich area, and NYC provides alot of that richness.

and housing for them is plentiful in sandspoint, plandome, dix hills etc

but housing need to reflect for the working (service) class people too, and not just in areas like roosevelt or wyndanch

an example would be mechanics: whether they are a mechanic working for a local trucking company making $20/hr or a grade 'a' lexus mechanic making $30/hr (meaning 65k a year) there NEEDS to be housing for them......Long Island has ALWAYS been about the working class....areas like levitown, east meadow, massapequa were always working class towns....until the late 90's and early 00's when everyone HAD to b3e able to sell for more than their neighbor down the block did

why should the average house in east meadow be 480k?

it shouldnt

housing needs to come down to reasonable levels...

and as far as 'pro-pain' putting 300k into his 400k house and EXPECTING that he should get at least 700k....what were your upgrades???? did you ACTUALLY EXPAND the square footage....or is it just highend appliances and granite countertops. you may SPEND 100k in a kitchen, but that does NOT mean the home is worth 100k more....now ADDING sq footage or ADDING a bath will add value, but just REDOING a kitchen or a bath will not, all it ADDS is APPEAL

[scottzilla]

Originally Posted by Burb

What's going to happen in 6 months? Inventory levels aren't climbing anymore, prices are pretty stable , sales cycles are just slower than they used to be. This link below shows the last few years of inventory levels and asking prices on LI, The theory that there is a dam that is waiting to break does not hold water, pun intended. Asking prices and inventory levels have held firm or improved YOY, houses are being bought and sold every day.

I have a flawless crystal ball. In 6 month the market will be either a little better, or a little worse. The idea of a finite bottom to housing deflation is a red herring. There is no absolute bottom, we are in a cycle favorable to the buyer. Today, as was 5 years ago, and as will be in 5 years, there are great deals to be found right next to overpriced and current market priced homes.

Buy if it makes sense, rent if it doesn't, but don't count on a landside correction.

HousingTracker.net | Median Home Asking Price & Inventory Data for Long Island, New York

Careful, or you will be accused of having an "Agenda".

[dman72]

Originally Posted by seren77

Just to help you improve your crystal ball, one suggestion: Do not use asking prices for any side of the argument in the future. They are so irrelevant, it is not even funny.

This is exactly what I though when I saw the chart. Asking price? What validity does that have?

[Burb]

Originally Posted by seren77

Just to help you improve your crystal ball, one suggestion: Do not use asking prices for any side of the argument in the future. They are so irrelevant, it is not even funny.

Sure asking price is relevant as it is trended in the link provided, it paints a picture consistent with what home shoppers are reporting. You see a clear trend of asking prices going down from 2006 to 2008 as inventory levels rose. There is a current trend since July 2008 where asking prices have remained flat and inventory levels have been flat or decreased YOY.

I've read many post complaining about people clinging to the their overpriced listing, or frustrated that they can't find any of the bargain basement homes out there. Sellers are holding firm to their overpriced homes. How long will that last? We'll agree to disagree, the Obama adminstration has shown a commitment to keep the bubble inflated by any means neccesary. Down payment assistance, tax subsidies, Artificially low interest rates, whatever it takes. They will succeed in holding the line until inflation normalizes pricing back to a sustainable level. I have spoken, it will be done.

Also, bet Rolling Thunder in the 3rd at Belmont. Your Powerball winner will be 1,33,14,55,22,7 and don't date the girl from your office with the nervous tick, you'll catch something.