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I'm sure about it. Despite there being a handful of exceptions to every possible thing in life, the vast majority of people starting a family are looking for something affordable, with a yard and good schools. Those types of neighborhoods just do not exist anywhere in Brooklyn. Single family, detached home is not something you can find....at least not for less than a million dollars....and those people who have the means to afford Albermarle Road or Gerritsen Beach aren't the kind of people who are gonna have their kids riding the B39 bus to St. Francis Prep every day.
Long Island has always had tons of kids who are extremely creative and deeply involved in the arts and music. That's why the younger generation is drawn to Williamsburg, Greenpoint, Astoria, etc. because they think the suburbs stifle that creativity (might be true, might not be). But eventually, you grow up, you get married, you produce offspring....being walking distance from the hottest new bar in town doesn't really mean anything when you're spending most of your free time changing diapers and watching Hannah Montana reruns.
According to most people in the know, BK's "gentrification" era is also drawing to a close. That was largely a product of the housing bubble, and the game is just about over. I totally expect places that are already full fledged, well established hipster enclaves to stay that way and continue drawing disenfranchised youths from LI and the Midwest, but I think the outward expansion is over. In 2006 people were talking about how places like Red Hook and Bushwick were gonna be "the new Lower East Side" and that seems totally ridiculous now. If there was gonna be a mass exodus of middle class white folks from Nassau & Suffolk to NYC, it would have happened already during the last decade.
I wanted to give you a rep, but CD wouldn't let me. Great post.
I would move to Brooklyn/Queens in a second if I worked in the city. LI is culturally dead with people just driving to and from work and big box stores. You don't even see kids out much anymore. The population is aging. In addition there are no places really for young couples/singles other than renting someones crappy basement. I know plenty of people my age that have moved to the city. For once I entirely agree with crookhaven here.
We need to enhance downtown areas, and build more dense residences that are NOT 55+ communities. Nearly everything built during the boom was gated communities with mc mansions, and 55+ because people protest non 55+ communities due to the people potentially having children. People here have taken a selfish NIMBY attitude, and you can already see the results with young people leaving (along with jobs). At my company we look for competent software developers and it is nearly impossible out here. Everyone is moving to the city where there is a great renaissance occurring in web tech etc.
I wanted to give you a rep, but CD wouldn't let me. Great post.
I was gonna rep you and write "well in that case, I'll just rep YOU instead!" but it wouldn't let me either LOL.
Quote:
Originally Posted by specialp
I would move to Brooklyn/Queens in a second if I worked in the city. LI is culturally dead with people just driving to and from work and big box stores. You don't even see kids out much anymore. The population is aging. In addition there are no places really for young couples/singles other than renting someones crappy basement. I know plenty of people my age that have moved to the city. For once I entirely agree with crookhaven here.
We need to enhance downtown areas, and build more dense residences that are NOT 55+ communities. Nearly everything built during the boom was gated communities with mc mansions, and 55+ because people protest non 55+ communities due to the people potentially having children. People here have taken a selfish NIMBY attitude, and you can already see the results with young people leaving (along with jobs). At my company we look for competent software developers and it is nearly impossible out here. Everyone is moving to the city where there is a great renaissance occurring in web tech etc.
I agree with all of that too, you're absolutely right. Long Island's stupid NIMBYism and nostalgia is destroying it. People in Garden City seriously thought that converting St. Paul's into $700,000 condos would turn the whole village into a blighted urban ghetto. Anything that isn't a disgusting McMansion, a useless 55+ community, a big box store or a fast food restaurant is viewed as a sign of the impending apocalypse. We are a joke...jobs, corporations, entertainment - these are all things that will never be lured out to Long Island given our population's absurd desire to keep things exactly the way they were in 1962. However, those people also forget that in 1962 we actually had a crap-ton of jobs on the island and that's one of the reasons why the property taxes remained stable for so long. It's not possible for an area this large and this dense to become anything but a complete financial burden with only residential properties on the tax rolls. These people are nuts.
However, that is an entirely different thought from this myth of a middle class white exodus to Brooklyn. I take it you're in your early-mid 20s? When I was that age, everybody I knew was moving into Brooklyn too....but give it a few more years and LI will make more sense, despite the cost (which, BTW, is pretty severe in the Five Boroughs as well). Unless you were raised in that urban an environment, it's a seriously huge leap to decide you'd rather start a family in a spiffy new Bedford-Stuyvesant loft as opposed to a Plainview split-level or something. You don't worry as much about the "cultural void" when you've got your own flesh and blood to worry about. BK is a logistical nightmare for having kids.
If we make it all multi-dwelling, even more people with children will leave. Most people in that stage of life want Another Pleasant Valley Sunday (The Monkees).
As to the poster who said that LI is culturally dead, that's true if you are 25 and your idea of a good time is drinking, listening to contemporary music, a comedy club, or searching for a date. However, if your idea of culture is making big bubbles at the LI Children's Museum, playing Marco Polo at the town pool, digging sand with your pail and shovel, painting a ceramic fish, or picking pumpkins in the fall, you will be a satisfied citizen.
I'm sure about it. Despite there being a handful of exceptions to every possible thing in life, the vast majority of people starting a family are looking for something affordable, with a yard and good schools. Those types of neighborhoods just do not exist anywhere in Brooklyn. Single family, detached home is not something you can find....at least not for less than a million dollars....and those people who have the means to afford Albermarle Road or Gerritsen Beach aren't the kind of people who are gonna have their kids riding the B39 bus to St. Francis Prep every day.
Long Island has always had tons of kids who are extremely creative and deeply involved in the arts and music. That's why the younger generation is drawn to Williamsburg, Greenpoint, Astoria, etc. because they think the suburbs stifle that creativity (might be true, might not be). But eventually, you grow up, you get married, you produce offspring....being walking distance from the hottest new bar in town doesn't really mean anything when you're spending most of your free time changing diapers and watching Hannah Montana reruns.
According to most people in the know, BK's "gentrification" era is also drawing to a close. That was largely a product of the housing bubble, and the game is just about over. I totally expect places that are already full fledged, well established hipster enclaves to stay that way and continue drawing disenfranchised youths from LI and the Midwest, but I think the outward expansion is over. In 2006 people were talking about how places like Red Hook and Bushwick were gonna be "the new Lower East Side" and that seems totally ridiculous now. If there was gonna be a mass exodus of middle class white folks from Nassau & Suffolk to NYC, it would have happened already during the last decade.
Are you really really really sure Sean?
Its not an exodus as much as an influx.
That you cant deny.
Long Island is compelling for very different reasons these days.
Namely for folks whove been priced out of the city.
Im not saying its over....just saying its different.
Perhaps the post gentified boroughs will reflect favorably on our fair Isle?
As for now I see a line that blurs every day and the Boroughs gains over the past 10 years have very much been at the Islands loss.
Im not sure if the Levitt/Moses vision has withstood the test of time.
History will be our judge.
Crooks
Last edited by Crookhaven; 05-01-2010 at 10:57 PM..
If we make it all multi-dwelling, even more people with children will leave. Most people in that stage of life want Another Pleasant Valley Sunday (The Monkees).
As to the poster who said that LI is culturally dead, that's true if you are 25 and your idea of a good time is drinking, listening to contemporary music, a comedy club, or searching for a date. However, if your idea of culture is making big bubbles at the LI Children's Museum, playing Marco Polo at the town pool, digging sand with your pail and shovel, painting a ceramic fish, or picking pumpkins in the fall, you will be a satisfied citizen.
Makes sense to me. Kids grow up and want to be part of the NYC social scene. They grow up some more, get married, have kids and trade in the clubs and drinking buddies for play dates and golf buddies. Yup, sounds right.
Yes, Long Island as we knew it (if you go back even 15 years) not only is dead, but has been dead for quite awhile. I mean, is there really any question about it?
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It isn't really only fifteen years ago that kids moved back into the city. I graduated from school the very week of Kent State (40 years ago this week) & moved to the East Village where Abbie & Anita Hoffman and Geraldo Rivera lived on my street. It was just so exotic and and as different from Strongs Neck as you could possibly get.
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Long Island will improve significantly when all the people who think it was a magical land of whimsy, remarkably different from what it is now, in 1978 (or whenever their senior year of HS was) are dead. I'm sure of it.
Don't bet on it Sean. The Island was different way back when and had more of an identity separate from the city. Much of that is now lost in my opinion and the Island has less unity than it did in the past. No identity, no unity, no change.
I really think LI needs to embrace its density, abandon the notion of a time machine and start getting behind some of these projects that can improve affordability.The notion that high taxes are somehow a barrier for poverty are as backasswards as low overpasses on the SSP.The only thing that high taxes yield, besides a mass exodus of our youth, is illegal overcrowded houses and accessory apartments.
...
LI 2.0 really needs three things in order to curb Taxes and Traffic.
(our QOL cancer)
1)Township wide School Districts
2)High speed rail with intermodal hub and spoke bus service.
3)Sewers.
I agree with Crooks that the Island should embrace it's density, it's there and can't be ignored, the only problem is what to do about it. I like rail, but when you can't find a spot to park at the station as it is I don't see how you're going to increase it's use. I'm trying to imagine what would happen if anyone tried to make a 3 or 4 story parking deck at each major train station. It'll take a lot of political power to get rail working.
I like the township wide school districts idea. For the Island it makes more sense than county wide school districts. The Island really has to shed it's rural based organization of local governments and school systems.
Sewers, that's been a long time dream.
No matter what, any changes to the Island will be disruptive to residents making it less likely that change can happen. I think the Island had it's best chances to change in the 60's and 70's and let the opportunity slip away. Now, I think it just may be stuck.
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