LI Housing (Kings Park, Bayport, Northport: short sale, renter, insurance)

[I_Love_LI_but]

Originally Posted by scottzilla

Oh yeah, i'm an agitator because I find it entertaining that this site tends to drive out those that don't share the opinions of the status quo!
I mean, please. Have you ever visited a site that is more biased than this one? Read the posts with an objective mind for a change. It's enlightening.
The very mention of the possibility the housing market may rebound gets everyone all in a tizzy. Misery loves company, huh?
I merely state my opinion, just like everyone else.

DUDE! You totally misunderstand ...

I thought we wuz boyz?!?

I was joking around. Sorry it did not look funny!

[I_Love_LI_but]

Originally Posted by TeamExit

if youre gonna do it just do it, what the hell. everyone is so worried about "the market". look if u are buying a house to live in it (not to just flip in 6 months) then the market dont really mean anything. 5-10 years from now, its not gonna be worth less than u paid.

Pretty much my philosophy ... if you are planning to stay long-term you shouldn't be trying to time the bottom.

[llama8]

Originally Posted by TeamExit

if youre gonna do it just do it, what the hell. everyone is so worried about "the market". look if u are buying a house to live in it (not to just flip in 6 months) then the market dont really mean anything. 5-10 years from now, its not gonna be worth less than u paid.

Excellent point and very true!! Renting is throwing money away 100% while buying a home to live in for a long period of time will always return equity.

I wonder if people waiting for the market to bottom out will miss the boat. I'm not a RE agent, but the market has to rebound..it's an economic cycle. I wouldn't be surprised if it happened sooner rather than later...albeit very gradual.

[scottzilla]

Originally Posted by I_Love_LI_but

DUDE! You totally misunderstand ...

I thought we wuz boyz?!?

I was joking around. Sorry it did not look funny!

Yo we good playa (What kind of urban slang is this?).
I don't take any of this stuff personally and interject smiley faces as needed.

[workingclasshero]

Originally Posted by scottzilla

Oh yeah, i'm an agitator because I find it entertaining that this site tends to drive out those that don't share the opinions of the status quo!
I mean, please. Have you ever visited a site that is more biased than this one? Read the posts with an objective mind for a change. It's enlightening.
The very mention of the possibility the housing market may rebound gets everyone all in a tizzy. Misery loves company, huh?
I merely state my opinion, just like everyone else.

Scott,

I am not sure if some of us are wording our post correctly, or if we are just not getting the point across.

I am not a 'doom and gloomer", I just see things from a workingclass (ie middle class) perspective. I want the 'housing market' to get better, I want home to be able to sell.....BUT......I see that homes NEED to come down still.....the median salary on long island is (depending on which stat site you look) between 60k-90k....that is the median...you have your doctors/lawyers/stockbrokers that make a heck of a lot more,,,and,,you have your hamburgerflippers and retail that make a heck of a lot less....BUT the MAJORITY are in the service sector like carpenters/plumbers, and mechanics (like my self) and they are the ones that make between 40-80k.

the SIMPLE fact is that the avergage house on long island (minus the ritzy areas) NEEDS to match the average salaries. that means the average home should be somewhere between 225-275k (maybe 300)......not 400k plus,,,doesnt matter if someone bought it for 400k, the MARKET will determine how much they can sell it for, NOT what they bought it for so they dont have a loss (ie if they bought it for 400, and the MARKET determines its worth 300,,,thats what they will get...loss or not)

if you look at the numbers from 1995...the average home in East Meadow (my town) was selling for around 135-160k...based on the NORMAL 5% increase per year.. you get 255k-290k for 13 years later ,,certainly not the 500k-700k that homes were selling for in 2005...so as you can see homes were WAY OVERPRICED

add to that that long island does not have any real industry, and even what we have unemployment is going to get worse (just think of all the car dealerships that are going to be closing in the next year,,then add the autoparts stores that service them,,and you are going to see lots of trouble soon)

[Burb]

Originally Posted by workingclasshero

Scott,

I am not sure if some of us are wording our post correctly, or if we are just not getting the point across.

I am not a 'doom and gloomer", I just see things from a workingclass (ie middle class) perspective. I want the 'housing market' to get better, I want home to be able to sell.....BUT......I see that homes NEED to come down still.....the median salary on long island is (depending on which stat site you look) between 60k-90k....that is the median...you have your doctors/lawyers/stockbrokers that make a heck of a lot more,,,and,,you have your hamburgerflippers and retail that make a heck of a lot less....BUT the MAJORITY are in the service sector like carpenters/plumbers, and mechanics (like my self) and they are the ones that make between 40-80k.

the SIMPLE fact is that the avergage house on long island (minus the ritzy areas) NEEDS to match the average salaries. that means the average home should be somewhere between 225-275k (maybe 300)......not 400k plus,,,doesnt matter if someone bought it for 400k, the MARKET will determine how much they can sell it for, NOT what they bought it for so they dont have a loss (ie if they bought it for 400, and the MARKET determines its worth 300,,,thats what they will get...loss or not)

if you look at the numbers from 1995...the average home in East Meadow (my town) was selling for around 135-160k...based on the NORMAL 5% increase per year.. you get 255k-290k for 13 years later ,,certainly not the 500k-700k that homes were selling for in 2005...so as you can see homes were WAY OVERPRICED

add to that that long island does not have any real industry, and even what we have unemployment is going to get worse (just think of all the car dealerships that are going to be closing in the next year,,then add the autoparts stores that service them,,and you are going to see lots of trouble soon)

Correct, and those in the service sector will need a spouse working making a similar salary (40-80K) to fund a decent home on LI. A family making 80-160K a year can afford a house in the 300-600K range. There are no shortage of families making 100K a year, if 1 works in the city it's a lay-up.

In NY and its prefered suburbs housing costs have always commanded a higher percentage of income than out in the sticks. I don't see it changing and I dont see the demand drying up anytime soon.

[scottzilla]

Originally Posted by workingclasshero

Scott,

I am not sure if some of us are wording our post correctly, or if we are just not getting the point across.

I am not a 'doom and gloomer", I just see things from a workingclass (ie middle class) perspective. I want the 'housing market' to get better, I want home to be able to sell.....BUT......I see that homes NEED to come down still.....the median salary on long island is (depending on which stat site you look) between 60k-90k....that is the median...you have your doctors/lawyers/stockbrokers that make a heck of a lot more,,,and,,you have your hamburgerflippers and retail that make a heck of a lot less....BUT the MAJORITY are in the service sector like carpenters/plumbers, and mechanics (like my self) and they are the ones that make between 40-80k.

the SIMPLE fact is that the avergage house on long island (minus the ritzy areas) NEEDS to match the average salaries. that means the average home should be somewhere between 225-275k (maybe 300)......not 400k plus,,,doesnt matter if someone bought it for 400k, the MARKET will determine how much they can sell it for, NOT what they bought it for so they dont have a loss (ie if they bought it for 400, and the MARKET determines its worth 300,,,thats what they will get...loss or not)

if you look at the numbers from 1995...the average home in East Meadow (my town) was selling for around 135-160k...based on the NORMAL 5% increase per year.. you get 255k-290k for 13 years later ,,certainly not the 500k-700k that homes were selling for in 2005...so as you can see homes were WAY OVERPRICED

add to that that long island does not have any real industry, and even what we have unemployment is going to get worse (just think of all the car dealerships that are going to be closing in the next year,,then add the autoparts stores that service them,,and you are going to see lots of trouble soon)

I completely agree with you. However, the house may indeed need to be worth 275K but if the seller paid 400K (And therefore would need 400K just to break even) one of two things will happen:
1-The house will sell for 275K and the homeowner will be in a 125K hole. This is happening right now and it's been my contention that this will end shortly. Probably within a year.
2-The homeowner will not sell his house because he can't get what he needed to get to break even. 1980 all over again. Lot's of houses for sale but no buyers.

This is why I believe we are damn close to bottom on LI house prices.

[MikeyKid]

I'm a doom and gloomer who advocates buying when the circumstances dictate it. There are plenty of reasons to buy right now - you can find absolute steals and the properly priced homes will actually see some competition. However, that doesn't change some of the cold hard facts with what's happening at the middle to higher price points - excluding the luxury market.

There is an absolute glut of inventory in the 400s to 600s. I'm not an economist, but it's pretty simple to think that a significant portion of these homes will come down to sell... which impacts comps, which impacts financing, trickle, trickle, trickle. Notice I said "trickle" - I'm not talking SKY IS FALLING (although I admit to thinking some areas will see more then a trickle).

I don't think you can call a bottom across all price points. I feel like the lower (<300k) homes are hitting against it, but the higher price points need to still move down. The big equalizer being taxes... everything is all about budget now and you have to believe that people will continue to be conservative (banks forcing them for the most part) with the total housing payment. Homes with 10k, 12k, 14k taxes are going to be very hard to sell unless priced very aggressively - trickle, trickle.

[scottzilla]

Originally Posted by MikeyKid

I'm a doom and gloomer who advocates buying when the circumstances dictate it. There are plenty of reasons to buy right now - you can find absolute steals and the properly priced homes will actually see some competition. However, that doesn't change some of the cold hard facts with what's happening at the middle to higher price points - excluding the luxury market.

There is an absolute glut of inventory in the 400s to 600s. I'm not an economist, but it's pretty simple to think that a significant portion of these homes will come down to sell... which impacts comps, which impacts financing, trickle, trickle, trickle. Notice I said "trickle" - I'm not talking SKY IS FALLING (although I admit to thinking some areas will see more then a trickle).

I don't think you can call a bottom across all price points. I feel like the lower (<300k) homes are hitting against it, but the higher price points need to still move down. The big equalizer being taxes... everything is all about budget now and you have to believe that people will continue to be conservative (banks forcing them for the most part) with the total housing payment. Homes with 10k, 12k, 14k taxes are going to be very hard to sell unless priced very aggressively - trickle, trickle.

Yes, I agree. I can't say we've hit bottom across all price points. This would be too much of a sweeping generalization. I still think we are close though. A place like Smithtown, prior to the bubble, was probably worth 20% more than West Babylon (For example), so logically it will still be 20% more after a "Correction" occurs. So you can still make an educated decision as to what a higher end house is worth.
But there are some areas that are harder to make an educated guess. Manorville homes are a great example. People were listing their homes for 700K plus-to live in Manorville! Now many homes are sitting with 400K asking prices.

[dman72]

Originally Posted by llama8

Excellent point and very true!! Renting is throwing money away 100% while buying a home to live in for a long period of time will always return equity.

I wonder if people waiting for the market to bottom out will miss the boat. I'm not a RE agent, but the market has to rebound..it's an economic cycle. I wouldn't be surprised if it happened sooner rather than later...albeit very gradual.

When you look at how much money you shell out in interest to a bank, don't be so quick to say that renting is throwing money away in the same sentence as saying that buying a home always returns equity. That may be true if if you pay off the home in 5 years at a low interest rate, not true if you take 20 or 30 years to pay it off. Even at low rates you're paying double the price of the house over the long run.

You don't start getting a return on real estate unless you see huge appreciations or move a lot of volume in a short period of time. It's nice to have YOUR house, that you can do what you want to with, I can't argue with that, but financially, it ISN'T the slam dunk that everyone would tell you, just looking at pure numbers.