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Old 03-24-2010, 01:46 PM
 
3,536 posts, read 4,314,476 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crookhaven View Post
Hmmmm that is an excellent little nugget Zulu.
Thanks for pointing that out


How could a town like I dunno.....Lake Ronkonkoma have 20k people and 121 crimes while a town like maybe Rocky Point have 10k people have only like 15?


Could it be that Lake Ronkonkoma has 8X as much crime as Rocky Point.
Im no statistician but that does seem a tad odd?


Maybe if I combine the towns of Rocky Point/Sound Beach along with Lake Ronkonkoma/Ronkonkoma (Theyre the same towns ...right?) maybe it'll look a little better...maybe Im wrong...who knows?Ill leave that up to the experts.

That is an interesting point Zulu.Thanks for bringing it up.


Crooks
It does to me. Just like Bayshore having just as much as Central Islip looked odd to me. I'm not saying Bayshore is a heavenly place, but I never thought it was on the same page as Central Islip.
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Old 03-24-2010, 01:58 PM
 
7,658 posts, read 10,714,870 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thebobs View Post
It does to me. Just like Bayshore having just as much as Central Islip looked odd to me. I'm not saying Bayshore is a heavenly place, but I never thought it was on the same page as Central Islip.

Truth be told, the more I sit with it theres a lot that doesent look right.
Im not sure if I trust Lake Ronkonkomas data or Rocky Points.
One seems way too high(maybe its the petty crap at the RR station)....one seems too low in comparison to others)

Miller Place is oddly high too.Mastic,weirdly low.

I do believe that theres some truth in this.
I do think there is more drama up the middle than on the shores of LI.
This evidence seems to support that theory.

JMHO

Crooks
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Old 03-24-2010, 02:21 PM
 
2,351 posts, read 3,530,715 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crookhaven View Post
Truth be told, the more I sit with it theres a lot that doesent look right.
Im not sure if I trust Lake Ronkonkomas data or Rocky Points.
One seems way too high(maybe its the petty crap at the RR station)....one seems too low in comparison to others)

Miller Place is oddly high too.Mastic,weirdly low.

I do believe that theres some truth in this.
I do think there is more drama up the middle than on the shores of LI.
This evidence seems to support that theory.

JMHO

Crooks
I think population does play a part in this. I saw some NY POST crime index data that put some shore towns like RP and MP at a disadvantage compared to the middle towns like Ronkonkoma (again, it was an index and not a numeric value like this report is.)

I agree with you though that the shores are a little quieter in general, but I believe there are crappy towns scattered all over LI, so you say RP (shore) is better than CI (middle), then Ronkonkoma(middle) is better than Mastic or mastic beach (shore). Similarly, is RP better than all towns in the middle ? I will say NO, but you are entitled to your opinion.
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Old 03-24-2010, 02:43 PM
 
491 posts, read 679,653 times
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To summarize:

Living in Wyandanch you have the same chance of being the victim of a crime as you do in Islip, both communities reporting 47 crimes in the last 30 days. Stay away from Commack and Smithtown with over 50 crimes reported. You're much better off in Wyandanch

The same can be said for Wantagh and Amityville with 5 crimes each, in fact Lloyd Harbor had 5 crimes as well. Save yourself a few hundred thousand and move to Amityville instead of Lloyd Harbor.

Absurd statements of course, but supported by a presumably flawed reporting.
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Old 03-24-2010, 02:58 PM
 
7,658 posts, read 10,714,870 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zulu400 View Post
I think population does play a part in this. I saw some NY POST crime index data that put some shore towns like RP and MP at a disadvantage compared to the middle towns like Ronkonkoma (again, it was an index and not a numeric value like this report is.)

I agree with you though that the shores are a little quieter in general, but I believe there are crappy towns scattered all over LI, so you say RP (shore) is better than CI (middle), then Ronkonkoma(middle) is better than Mastic or mastic beach (shore). Similarly, is RP better than all towns in the middle ? I will say NO, but you are entitled to your opinion.

We agree.

Of course not, but I will say RP may have better neighbors and less crime.

I never said RP was perfect, I just said it was a damn good value and that we love it here ; ).

Crooks
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Old 03-24-2010, 03:03 PM
 
Location: Wellsville, Glurt County
2,846 posts, read 6,106,557 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I_Love_LI_but View Post
It's showing Malverne, Rockville Centre and Lynbrook ...
I know, doesn't seem like there is much rhyme or reason....but it definitely has something to do with the smaller police departments not being fully included.

Might also be that some of these village PDs hand off most non-traffic/QOL issues to the NCPD/SCPD. I know that even if you're in a village with it's own police force in Nassau, if there is a homicide the NCPD handles it.

The Suffolk County ones are really hard to figure because the descriptions are incredibly vague.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OhBeeHave View Post
Yes and no.

What's the population density? Are the towns the same size in square miles? Urban or rural? Nature of crimes?

If it's 40 petty crimes, vs 20 crimes of a more serious nature, I might lean toward the larger population.
Eh, I kinda see what you're saying....but it's still the same crime rate, no matter what the density. This map is also confusing for that reason, if it showed a true crime "rate" for an area instead of raw (and incomplete) data it'd give us a much better picture.
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Old 03-24-2010, 03:25 PM
 
Location: Inis Fada
13,754 posts, read 15,714,300 times
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Quote:
Eh, I kinda see what you're saying....but it's still the same crime rate, no matter what the density. This map is also confusing for that reason, if it showed a true crime "rate" for an area instead of raw (and incomplete) data it'd give us a much better picture.
One thing that the map does do is give us the type of crime committed in the area in addition to the street.

Yes, the numbers represent the same number of crimes per person. I was thinking more in terms of how large an area the numbers were spread over, and if such crime numbers would indicate a trend, were they random, etc.

Like you wrote, the numbers are raw.
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Old 03-24-2010, 03:29 PM
 
Location: Wellsville, Glurt County
2,846 posts, read 6,106,557 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OhBeeHave View Post
One thing that the map does do is give us the type of crime committed in the area in addition to the street.

Yes, the numbers represent the same number of crimes per person. I was thinking more in terms of how large an area the numbers were spread over, and if such crime numbers would indicate a trend, were they random, etc.

Like you wrote, the numbers are raw.
Yeah, a few posters have said stuff like "wow I can't believe such and such area had so much more than such and such area" - keep in mind, just because the number is higher doesn't mean the crime rate is!
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Old 03-24-2010, 03:32 PM
 
7,658 posts, read 10,714,870 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sean sean sean sean View Post
Yeah, a few posters have said stuff like "wow I can't believe such and such area had so much more than such and such area" - keep in mind, just because the number is higher doesn't mean the crime rate is!
But like pop town to like pop town would be the same right?

Im getting confused.

Crooks
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Old 03-24-2010, 03:47 PM
 
Location: Wellsville, Glurt County
2,846 posts, read 6,106,557 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crookhaven View Post
But like pop town to like pop town would be the same right?

Im getting confused.

Crooks
You could get a rough estimate from this, but nothing definite. To get the most basic crime rate you would divide the population by the total number of crimes. That part is simple (though they're usually published as "incidents per 1,000 persons" in which case you would have to do a little algebra and solve for x!). The problem here is that obviously some data is missing and that we don't know specifically where something happened. Not only does that tick Walter off, but we don't know whether to divide by the population stats for either the "town" (aka hamlet/village/etc.) or the population stats for the ZIP code. In larger areas where both match up pretty well, it's probably not that big of a difference.....but in some places, dividing by one or the other would throw things wayyyy off.

But, since I know most crime reports probably go by ZIP code and not municipality, you could get a pretty good estimate for the parts of Suffolk that are entirely patrolled by the SCPD. Just look up the pop. stats on city-data by ZIP and not name.

EDIT: Give me a few minutes and I'll give you an example!

Last edited by sean sean sean sean; 03-24-2010 at 03:50 PM.. Reason: e=mc hammer
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