Any Angelenos Thinking of Jumping Ship? (foreclosures, incomes, taxes)

[disgruntled la native]

Originally Posted by BluSpark

No surprise that Roubini would be your favorite choice among the dismal scientists. A black swan comes once in a lifetime, if ever. Not likely he'll ever be so right again. His 15 minutes are up.

The Anderson forecast called the recession of the early 2000's very well....esp. how it would impact Calif.'s high-tech sector. Anderson also had a few economists that called the housing bubble as far back as 2002.

You seem like a nice guy but why must you try to drag down other people's threads with your gloomy outlook? End times? Wow....I got a good laugh out of that one!!!

You can't honestly think the economy in California is gonna get better in the next year or two. And faster than the rest of the country at that. We're undergoing some permanent shifts, with the decline of the US and california at the helm.

When I mean endtimes I don't mean the biblical ones but we are in a transition period where things will cease to advancement.

It's a gloomy outlook but a realistic one. all of history is gloomy.

[nighthouse66]

Originally Posted by disgruntled la native

You can't honestly think the economy in California is gonna get better in the next year or two. And faster than the rest of the country at that. We're undergoing some permanent shifts, with the decline of the US and california at the helm.

When I mean endtimes I don't mean the biblical ones but we are in a transition period where things will cease to advancement.

It's a gloomy outlook but a realistic one. all of history is gloomy.

uh, all of history? that's pretty sweeping. so, let's see, its the end of everything good, except there was never a beginning and everything has always sucked. then why bother breathing? seriously, dude, if i ever feel that way, which i sometimes do, i have the decency to keep it to myself. better be remembered for being the Unsinkable Molly Brown than the one who was whining when it all went to hell.

[NickelDime]

Originally Posted by EscapeCalifornia

In the USA, people think its acceptable to spend 25% of your income on housing. In LA, people think its acceptable to spend 50% of your income on housing.

Outside of a serious unemployment problem, incomes still trend higher in LA than many other areas.

Your perspective was accurate in 2007, but the world has changed since then.

I agree - 25% of gross household income is the acceptable number.

"Affordable" areas have housing costs aligned with the incomes in that area. If a household is earning $100k (2 earners at $50k each), that means they'd spend about $2100 a month on rent or if they scraped together a 20% down payment, a $465k home (assumes 5% interest rate and a few extra bucks for HOI and HOA).

EscapeCalifornia, there are plenty of homes in Tustin and Burbank (2 safe areas adjacent a job hub with great schools) that go for $465k.

[Charles]

Originally Posted by NickelDime

incomes still trend higher in LA than many other areas.

Maybe by a few percent but no way commensurate with housing costs.

[NickelDime]

Originally Posted by Charles

Maybe by a few percent but no way commensurate with housing costs.

Agree. Some areas have corrected more than others. And still, there's another tranche of correction on its way.

[AliveandWell]

No, I am not thinking of jumping ship. I couldn't leave if if I wanted to. I'm in the middle of retraining for a new career. NightHouse66, I understand you totally. I don't even know why so many are being negative. I realize it is hard times out there for lots of people, but its not going to do any good for people to think things won't get better. That's not a healthy mindset to have. Sometimes life throws curve balls at us and it is up to us to deal with them. Things have to get better eventually don't they?

[Charles]

Originally Posted by NickelDime

And still, there's another tranche of correction on its way.

Maybe.

We just bought in September. We got 15 years 3.675%. Of course I hope housing prices don't fall but even if they did, I could psychologically deal with a 10% drop - at least I have a low rate. This is our third move since 2006 (LA to COS, COS to HSV, HSV to OC) so we are extremely motivated to stay. Even if I lost my job and couldn't find a job in SoCal, I'd find a job somewhere in the US and rent a room while looking for a local job rather than pick up and move the whole family again.

[NickelDime]

Originally Posted by Charles

Maybe.

We just bought in September. We got 15 years 3.675%. Of course I hope housing prices don't fall but even if they did, I could psychologically deal with a 10% drop - at least I have a low rate. This is our third move since 2006 (LA to COS, COS to HSV, HSV to OC) so we are extremely motivated to stay. Even if I lost my job and couldn't find a job in SoCal, I'd find a job somewhere in the US and rent a room while looking for a local job rather than pick up and move the whole family again.

Y'did great on the rate, but you don't need me to tell you that.

Fact is, rates have climbed almost a full percentage point (par, 30 yr) in the last 3 weeks. And there's not much looking back.

It doesn't take a quant jock to figure out what that will do to home prices. And they were fragile at 4%...

You've got a great perspective on it, one I wish I had - staying in one place!

[nighthouse66]

Originally Posted by AliveandWell

No, I am not thinking of jumping ship. I couldn't leave if if I wanted to. I'm in the middle of retraining for a new career. NightHouse66, I understand you totally. I don't even know why so many are being negative. I realize it is hard times out there for lots of people, but its not going to do any good for people to think things won't get better. That's not a healthy mindset to have. Sometimes life throws curve balls at us and it is up to us to deal with them. Things have to get better eventually don't they?

yup. what goes up must come down, and vice versa. my glass is half full and its a beautiful glass

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by NickelDime

Outside of a serious unemployment problem, incomes still trend higher in LA than many other areas.

Your perspective was accurate in 2007, but the world has changed since then.

I agree - 25% of gross household income is the acceptable number.

"Affordable" areas have housing costs aligned with the incomes in that area. If a household is earning $100k (2 earners at $50k each), that means they'd spend about $2100 a month on rent or if they scraped together a 20% down payment, a $465k home (assumes 5% interest rate and a few extra bucks for HOI and HOA).

EscapeCalifornia, there are plenty of homes in Tustin and Burbank (2 safe areas adjacent a job hub with great schools) that go for $465k.

The problem with your thinking is the 20% down. Unless someone is selling a home with quite a bit of equity, 20% down on a 500,000 is a healthy down payment.

Nita