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Old 01-22-2011, 02:12 PM
 
1 posts, read 1,096 times
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I've been following the shake maps by both the Great California Shake Out (which imagines the epicenter of a 7.8 at the Salton Sea and seismic waves heading NW) and the SCEC magnitude 8 simulation (which has the epicenter near San Luis Obispo with the waves traveling SW and which in theory would cause less violent shaking in LA.) Both epicenters are located about 180 miles from where I live in Santa Monica

As a 38 year resident of SM, the '94 Northridge quake, located 17 miles away from me, was BY FAR the most intense shaking I've ever experienced. The '92 7.3 Landers quake, which was much more powerful but about 140 miles away, was a gentle roll like standing in a dinghy moored in a marina. My most distinct memory of Landers is watching a ten high stack of VHS tapes on my desk quiver gently but not fall.

So my question is this: If we split the difference between the two simulations and have a 7.9 earthquake with an epicenter located roughly 150-180 miles from LA, how comparable do you think the shaking would be compared to a 6.7 quake (Northridge) that hit right in L.A.'s front yard?
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Old 01-22-2011, 02:21 PM
 
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Since I live within walking distance of the epicenter we can safely assume that there aren't very many C-D members who felt the Northridge quake more than I. It ripped my world apart! I just hope I never experience anything bigger. That's another reason for my moving away from California. And yes, I understand that earthquakes can happen almost anywhere, but it's almost a sure thing I'll be less likely to be hit by "the big one" out of state, particularly since I'm taking earthquake history into consideration when picking my new home.

Note that the earthquake scale is logarithmic, so a 7.9 quake is almost 200 times larger than a 6.7 quake. I surely don't want to personally find out what that 7.9 feels like even 180 miles away. Also, from what I've heard the bigger quakes last longer too. The Northridge quake lasted almost an eternity for me!
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Old 01-22-2011, 02:30 PM
 
Location: Las Flores, Orange County, CA
964 posts, read 1,507,437 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jzbass72 View Post
So my question is this: If we split the difference between the two simulations and have a 7.9 earthquake with an epicenter located roughly 150-180 miles from LA, how comparable do you think the shaking would be compared to a 6.7 quake (Northridge) that hit right in L.A.'s front yard?

There's almost certainly an equation which provides intensity as a function of distance from the epicenter. You might have better luck with google.
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Old 01-23-2011, 01:41 AM
 
2,750 posts, read 5,801,575 times
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I think the scenarios suggest that LA will feel very similar shaking to what areas in the San Fernando Valley felt in the big one-regardless of the scenario. I think the northern epicenter would be worse for Orange County, while bother scenarios would be instense for LA. Maybe the southern epicenter would be even more extreme then Northridge...but probably similar. It will just be felt that much stronger over viturally the entire area which is scary to think.
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