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Old 02-11-2011, 01:55 PM
 
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Ya know, I do not believe in timing a bottom. If you look at past history, the period on both sides of the bottom that were within 10% of the bottom were at least a 3-4 year time frame. That is to say, the bottom lasts quite a long time. And the real question is if you can deal with a crackerbox that costs more than half a million dollars and if that even makes any sort of sense.
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Old 02-11-2011, 02:29 PM
 
Location: SoCal
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Out of curiosity, I did a search on Realtor.com for 3 bedrooms over 1600 sq ft in Burbank for under $600k, and it came back with 47 results. Yeah, the prices are crazy, but not "tiny crackerjack fixer upper for $600K" crazy.

I don't think you'd have a problem finding something.
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Old 02-11-2011, 05:59 PM
 
4,028 posts, read 8,297,103 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by readymade View Post
Out of curiosity, I did a search on Realtor.com for 3 bedrooms over 1600 sq ft in Burbank for under $600k, and it came back with 47 results. Yeah, the prices are crazy, but not "tiny crackerjack fixer upper for $600K" crazy.

I don't think you'd have a problem finding something.
I did the same search on Redfin(1500sq ft plus, 3bd, 1.25ba+) and came up with 25 sales in the past three months with a sales price range of $285K-600K and an average sale price of $539K. So its not like I was far off in describing the "cusp" of move in ready 1500 sq ft 3bd/2ba as $600K.

However, I'll note that prices dropped further than I was aware of.

One thing I do find VERY interesting and I've noted the phenomenon throughout LA is that list prices are 5-20% higher than actual comps. In this instance, there are currently 29 homes for sale under our criteria in Burbank. The average listing price is $560....30K more than comps...and most notably in a market of higher interest rates and tougher to obtain loans. Leads me to believe theres a glut of totally delusional sellers, pissed badly that they missed the boat. So basically, a slowly rising inventory in what is likely to be slower sales. I'd estimate listed inventory at around 4 months in our criteria. Include shadow inventory(homes where mortgage payments have stopped but the banks will not foreclose) and I'm guessing actual inventory is well over a year.

Anyway, interesting stuff.
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