Real Estate Price Predictions in Los Angeles City (loan, broker)

[Sorcerer68]

Originally Posted by desertdawgx

Wrong RE crashed without the loss of jobs in aerospace,prices rose beyond fundamentals and corrected back to historic values.It is a cycle and it repeats very 10 to 15 years.No area is special,yes palmdale may lose 60% but it rose 500%.West LA will lose 40% but it doubled.Pick your poison they all go down alot when bubbles burst.

Prices can never rise beyond "fundamentals". Prices are what the market will bear, period. Leaving Aerospace out of the early 90's L.A. real estate crash is like saying only the impact of the plane, not the subsequent fire brought town WT 1 and WT 2. More myopia. I'm done with this because I think you really just want to argue.

[desertdawgx]

You need to do more research the market peaked in 1989 and the layoffs where around 92 and later.Some people blame it on the northridge earthquake and the Rodney King riots the fact is the credit cycle changed and prices fell nationwide.It is just the way it is,recessions happen and affect everyone.To say you don't want to argue means you lost the debate.

[JackSparrow]

Originally Posted by desertdawgx

To say you don't want to argue means you lost the debate.

It can also mean that you're just tired of talking to clowns?

[Sorcerer68]

Originally Posted by desertdawgx

You need to do more research the market peaked in 1989 and the layoffs where around 92 and later.Some people blame it on the northridge earthquake and the Rodney King riots the fact is the credit cycle changed and prices fell nationwide.It is just the way it is,recessions happen and affect everyone.To say you don't want to argue means you lost the debate.

The slide started in 89 but really smacked us about 91 and then worse in 92 and you're right, subsequent events were a factor but not THE factor. I was here. I've been here almost 40 years. You're still blind in one eye or maybe had your Corpus Collosum cut.

I make my living in real estate and have made a great deal of money practicing what I preach. How many properties do you own? How much money have you made in real estate?

Using playground tactics is a sure sign of a mature individual. Take an intro to logic class and then you'll be able to argue on the internet better. Arguments (debates) can be broken down into mathmatics. Your equation doesn't work. You don't know this because you never took logic. If you had, you wouldn't be pursuing a faulty equation of reason. You remind me of the guy who knows most of the specs of a Ferrari but has never driven one. To know statistics is one thing. To completely understand real estate, you must have a working knowledge of it. The collapse of aerospace alone didn't cause the huge drop in prices in the South Bay. The real estate recession in general didn't either. These factors, followed by the 92 Riots were a recipe for the end result. The drop in value was not unilateral...in fact, the South Bay got it twice as bad. Why was it so bad in the South Bay? AEROSPACE!The current market can't be explained with a blanket statement either. Long Beach has seen the highest % of value drop, up to 30%. Echo Park has seen a price increase of about 40%. Pasadena properties continue to appreciate as well. Average home prices in Mt Washington 90065 just topped a million for the first time. Sales (in number) are down in some areas, way down in some others and way up in a few. Condos in most areas continue to drop in value. See what I mean? Another 40% drop at this point is preposterous. We've been in this cycle since November of 2005. I smelled the change in the wind when it started. My prediction is that we'll start to see a recovery around the end of 2008. HUGE amounts of money are being pumped into several industries here to the tune of Billions. You also have to examine the commercial, industrial and residential rental markets for a complete understanding of the current state of affairs. I've already done this. This time next year I'll be buying fixer forclosures. For now I concentrate on small multi-family fixers. They are dirt cheap in some areas. I'm going to make a killing ~

I have to shove off from this, I'm off to spend more money I made in real estate ~ This is silly and frankly boring.

[desertdawgx]

You have been drinking too much of your own koolaid and i hope you are not too leveraged.I sold all Re in spring 05 and made a killing and will buy back in after 08.The coming recession and lack of toxic loans and credit tightening and huge wave of forclosures will decimate LA real estate for years to come.

[davidt1]

It's not over yet. Here is the ARM resets schedule through 2008.

(source JP Morgan)
March 07 = 6 billion $
April 07 = 7 billion $
May 07 = 9.8 billion $
June 07 = 10 billion $
July 07 = 12 billion $
Aug 07 = 17.5 billion $
Sept 07 = 18 billion $
Oct 07 = 20 billion $
Nov 07 = 23 billion $
Dec 07 = 22.5 billion $
Jan 08 = 25 billion $
Feb 08 = 25 billion $
March 08 = 23 billion $
April 08 = 22.5 billion $
May 08 = 24 billion $
June 08 = 18 billion $
July 08 = 20 billion $
Aug 08 = 25 billion $
Sept 08 = 23 billion $
Oct 08 = 23 billion $
Nov 08 = 23 billion $
Dec 08 = 20 billion $

[desertdawgx]

Correct david this is only the first inning of a long wave of forclosures,i don't expect the market to recover for 7 to 10 years.

[joybird]

Places like this are made for people like MR. Sparrow LOL aggressively punching opinions in! I love it. I digress.... I read an article just yesterday about Los Angeles and Glendale areas having a 60% chance of further dropping in value over the next two years along with a number of other cities... Anyhow, I've been looking at realestate for the past two years trying to decide where to buy, what to buy, etc and here is what I've noticed other than the obvious. Alot of older communities where the owners are retired and own their homes, or practically own their homes, are fixing up them up and up and selling them to move elsewhere. These are Middle class areas with nicely kept homes and communities! PLUS they are still dropping in price. This just makes it more likely for a young family to own a home in or near the metropolitan area and still live in a nice community where there are NO APTS or CONDOS OR TOWN HOMES OR PUDS, and that has wonderful schools and parks near by and a good size LOT!! I see it happening as I continue to scan the areas I'm interested in buying at. Originally 800K, then 760K, then 675K, Now 550K! this is in two years time and it's expected to drop further? THis is a drastic example, however other areas are dropping as well but not as steep. Still dropping ...okay so long ass answer I know but based on what I've been keeping close track of, it's obvious they'll go down a bit more in LA whether it's a cute area or a hideous area. AS for the more affluent areas it seems to apply as well, which is why recently I've seen three different celebrities on television literally trying to sell their home while having an interview, or show their "crib" in the hollywood hills. It's was kind of desperate and "used car salesman-like. It just goes to show, that even in the affluent areas they are having a rough time selling at the price they are attempting to sell at... so what does that mean? take a wild guess....

[desertdawgx]

Joybird prices will fall alot further,wait 2 years and you will get a great deal.

[desertdawgx]

This is from a mortgage broker blog "Talked to a few of my reps today. My AE at Countrywide informed me that they will be eliminating stated loans in the near future. So far Argent, and Option One has axed it's stated programs entirely. My business is 70% stated. I work out of the Los Angeles market and it's nuts for someone to even attempt to go full doc.
I've entered the market 5 years ago on a surfboard riding a nice wave, now it almost feel's like a complete wipeout!
I'm trying to be optimistic about our market but the last week and a half have been a living nightmare! Hopefully Wallstreet will have the hunger to formulate another demand in the secondary so that new and innovative products will come out. I think the Option arms and the 2/28 were nails in the coffin, especially since most of these loans recasted, leaving us where we are today.
What's your imput of the elimination of the stated programs?" It seems very few in Los Angeles will be getting loans in the future.