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Old 03-17-2011, 06:45 PM
 
Location: So Ca
5,077 posts, read 4,822,326 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnG72 View Post
You're incorrect. Read the links I posted.
That quote was not addressed to you.
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Old 03-17-2011, 06:50 PM
 
3,122 posts, read 4,550,517 times
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Well this is a start Jerz. Apparently 2000 median home price for LA county was somewhere around $225K.

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/w...ome-prices.png

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Old 03-17-2011, 06:50 PM
 
Location: San Gabriel Valley, CA
11,808 posts, read 12,171,679 times
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Okay, and meanwhile, we need a comparison to the nation as a whole since it's being asserted that L.A. homes v. income 10 years ago were roughly comparable to homes v. income in the rest of the nation...I think we'd just better take the nation as a whole since obviously every city in every county in every state will be, no pun intended, all over the map with this question.

So I'm relying on Census data since the above data is also Census data.

Quick link so far on average household values across the nation (including CA, obviously, but there are 49 other states to offset things if CA is seriously wonky by comparison, so it should all end up fair...if that makes sense...and I do NOT feel like finding averages for 49 states!): quick 2000 household values link

I shall edit to add average family income (we're using family, right -- not household?) in a moment...if I can find it quickly...ETA: Okay...whew! National household income for 1999...can't get just family but it's all good, I guess. $42,148.

God, I hope I'm doing this all right and it's all making sense.

Meanwhile...L.A. county median income was nearly exactly the national average the time. L.A. County's incomes were: $42,189 per John's census data linked above.

One more piece of data to figure out and this one will take actual averaging since the total isn't listed, again, unless I'm missing it: L.A. median home values. Will add up, divide and take an average. Be back.

Sigh. Whew.
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Old 03-17-2011, 07:01 PM
 
Location: San Gabriel Valley, CA
11,808 posts, read 12,171,679 times
Reputation: 7875
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnG72 View Post
Well this is a start Jerz. Apparently 2000 median home price for LA county was somewhere around $225K.

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/w...ome-prices.png
Awesome, so $225K for the home values and $42,148 for per household (not just per family) incomes so that's...income at (oh God, math, don't fail me now)...value at like 5.5X *** household income in 2000 (or 1999) for L.A. County? No wait, that can't be right...

Is that even correct? I'm too immersed...somebody else please do my math on just this part? Subbing to the thread, BBL.

***Also, there was a ratio given earlier in this thread that would be considered affordable. I can't remember what it was, does anyone else know? I don't relish the thought of having to weed back through the whole thread so I'm hoping. Will need it for to compare the 1999 (or 2000) ratio.
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Old 03-17-2011, 07:10 PM
 
Location: LA
6,163 posts, read 11,448,834 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JerZ View Post
Awesome, so $225K for the home values and $42,148 for per household (not just per family) incomes so that's...income at (oh God, math, don't fail me now)...value at like 5.5X household income in 2000 (or 1999) for L.A. County? No wait, that can't be right...

Is that even correct? I'm too immersed...somebody else please do my math on just this part? Subbing to the thread, BBL.
you're right, good job! here's a link to prices at the national level Housing Bubble Graphs: Charts of inflation-adjusted, historical home prices. (http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeqrguz/housingbubble/ - broken link)

i also think that it is fallacy to believe that LA was just as cheap as other cities 10-20 years ago. I remember when I was younger my parents always telling me about how expensive it was to buy a house in LA/OC. We actually took vacations to Phoenix to research a potential move because housing was much cheaper there (this is in the 80s fwiw). we also had friends move to Texas from SoCal around the same time due to the high cost of housing here. Socal housing has been considerably more than the national average for at least 25 years from my experiences.
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Old 03-17-2011, 07:12 PM
 
Location: LA
6,163 posts, read 11,448,834 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JerZ View Post
***Also, there was a ratio given earlier in this thread that would be considered affordable. I can't remember what it was, does anyone else know? I don't relish the thought of having to weed back through the whole thread so I'm hoping. Will need it for to compare the 1999 (or 2000) ratio.
i think what you are referring to is the 3x-4x factor of annual household income to determine affordability.
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Old 03-17-2011, 07:24 PM
 
Location: San Gabriel Valley, CA
11,808 posts, read 12,171,679 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BRinSM View Post
i think what you are referring to is the 3x-4x factor of annual household income to determine affordability.
Okay. So homes were not "affordable" by this equation** in 2000 (or 1999) overall in L.A. County. (**the equation being defined by those who were the ones who were asserting that homes were affordable at that time, BTW). As a subset of this assertion, the continuous "most (working) families" could therefore afford homes in 2000, but not now. Disproven again at least based on this equation which seems to be saying that greater than 5X (significantly greater) is definitely beyond "affordable" status. Therefore, it was not "revisionist history" we here were espousing; in fact, it was those saying homes were overall affordable 10 years ago who are incorrect. Sorry.

Second assertion: that homes *today* in L.A. County are a hugely, ridiculously, stupidly larger proportion of household income than they were 10 years ago. (Or to be more fair: at least a significantly larger proportion than 10 years ago.) I just need to find reliable current home value (not pricing) data to confirm or refute that one.

Last edited by JerZ; 03-17-2011 at 07:32 PM..
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Old 03-17-2011, 07:30 PM
 
Location: Conejo Valley, CA
12,268 posts, read 10,035,066 times
Reputation: 4021
Quote:
Originally Posted by JerZ View Post
You have supplied links to individual homes. I'll ask one more time. Do you have links to support the median incomes and median home prices for the *same* area at the *same* time?
No, I haven't supplied links to individual homes and I have provided the exact information you're asking about. I just didn't link to it, I sorta figure people would look it up.

The median sale price in LA was around $160k in 2000 and the median income was around $37k. Housing was starting to become inflated in 2000, but was still reasonable. If you go back further you find ratios closer to 3x, go back beyond 1970 and you start to see ratios that match most the country.


Los Angeles average and median listing prices - Trulia.com

Los Angeles (city) QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau

Note: Some places adjust for inflation so you'll see higher numbers in if they do. $160k in 2000, adjusted for inflation, is roughly $215k today.
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Old 03-17-2011, 07:35 PM
 
Location: San Gabriel Valley, CA
11,808 posts, read 12,171,679 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by user_id View Post
The median sale price in LA was around $160k in 2000 and the median income was around $37k. Housing was starting to become inflated in 2000, but was still reasonable. [/url]
No, dear, I'm sorry, we linked data from the Census Bureau; please see above. In 1999 and/or in 2000, Los Angeles homes were roughly 5.5X the median L.A. County income. Please go back and read my post (about thre eor four posts up) with the links and numbers. The average house was $225K, not $160K.

And no. Just in case you're getting ready to ask. $160K is NOT "about" $225K.

I'm sorry, but all along in this thread, you have been wrong. The numbers bear it out.
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Old 03-17-2011, 07:36 PM
 
Location: San Gabriel Valley, CA
11,808 posts, read 12,171,679 times
Reputation: 7875
Quote:
Originally Posted by user_id View Post
If you go back further you find ratios closer to 3x, go back beyond 1970 and you start to see ratios that match most the country.
How we do backpedal, but by the way, do you want to put this one to the test, too? I'll gladly crunch the numbers for you.

You sure you want to do this again?

Say the word.
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