Destruction of LA by earthquake coming soon! (Los Angeles, Empire: apartments, how much)
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Because earthquakes along the southern San Andreas Fault occur due to the sudden release of accumulated stress. Each year, that stress increases. The Pacific tectonic plate is moving north but is locked in place due to friction with the North American plate. So each year, the increasingly accumulated increases the chances of an earthquake. Eventually, the force of the accumulated stress becomes greater than the force of the static friction, and the Pacific plate slips north several meters. Wherein, of course, the Earth quakes.
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They happen at random, my personal feeling is that it'd happen in the 2020's, I want to move to SoCal then back to the East Coast by 2019 lol.
If earthquakes happened at random, their occurance would be... well, random, not periodic within a certain range. And there is a clear historical (and pre-historical) record of earthquakes happening along the southern San Andreas Fault within given intervals that have both a high and low end.
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But seriously just like the NYC area is "overdue" for a Hurricane, that doesn't mean it's marked on the calender and scheduled to happen. It happens when it happens.
I'm overdue for some Outback lol.
Comparing hurricanes (moving systems which only make landfall at a particular place due to a wide variety of constantly-shifting weather patterns) and earthquakes (which are highly localized to faults, mostly) isn't remotely serious. When 2010 passes and a hurricane does not hit New York, there is no accumulated 'hurricane force' making it more likely to happen next year than this year. But when 2010 passes without the southern San Andreas Fault, the stress on the fault will have increased because the Pacific plate is 'trying' move move north at a rate of about 1.5 inches per year. Thus, the chances then in 2011 will be greater. And unless the nature of the southern San Andreas Fault changes, this increasing stress translates to an increasing likelihood of a stress-relieving slip.
Think of it this way:
Take a standard deck of cards. Draw one. Is it the seven of clubs? No? Then the next time you draw a card, the chances of it being the seven of clubs have increased (from 1-in-52 to 1-in-51). And so on as you continue to draw cards. The problem with earthquake prediction is that the calculations are far more complex, the variables considerable, and that seismologists can't say when we're down to the last card in the metaphorical deck. But it evidence overwhelmingly indicates that on the southern San Andreas Fault, most of the deck has been flipped.
This is just silly. The worst that can happen (in any localized area) already happened and the Northridge quake is a good example. If you were here (I was) it was disruptive for a week and distracting for 1-4 weeks, but it got over. That's the prototype for any quake in L.A., disruptive for a few days over localized area (it was Northridge, the San Fernando Valley and adjacent, but not all of L.A., and it distracted us for a month, a few of us here locally more than a month). Only a very few people died (I forgot, maybe 3, 7, 10 or a dozen) and those who died were (1) bottom floor on a three story apartment building, or zipping along on the freeway (one traffic officer on the 5-14 interchange and the connector ramp collapsed).
Any earthquake in Los Angeles would have to be far worse than Northridge '94 or Sylmar '71 to cause any major loss of life. Most of us live in single family wood framed structures, or 2 story WF structures, and these structures degrade gracefully in earthquakes, they fall apart but for the most part don't hurt people inside (unless they're 3 floors and week ground floor, or unless you have weak glass mirrors above your bed, or unless you have massive furniture near your bed that is not secured).
The main threats of a very big Los Angeles earthquakes are (1) you work in a very tall structure, (2) you work in a multi-story masonry structure that has not been earthquake retrofitted, or (3) you live in a 3 or more story apartment/condo structure.
If you live in a single story wood frame structure and you spend the majority of your time there or at least in a workplace that is not a multi-story structure then you have virtually zero chance of being harmed in an earthquake.
Your major risk is losing the value of your home due to earthquake damage. You are so unlikely to be injured or killed in an earthquake that it's almost zero chance of happening (no matter where you are even the top floor on a skyscraper).
You folks are worried about something happening that has almost no chance of happening. Your major risk is if you own real estate that is not earthquake insured, and even then it's your money not your life.
1) The Northridge Earthquake is most certainly not the 'worst than can happen'. It's nothing that would stop me from living in Los Angeles, but it's flat-out wrong.
The LA Times and local television stations have been reporting the news issued by the earthquakes experts and it is not good. But at least the area where they see the worst stress is well over 100 miles north of Los Angeles in the Carrizo Plain of extreme southern Monterey county. I hope if a major quake occurs up there that we will be far enough south to avoid lots of damage. The 1857 earthquake was 7.9 and lasted 1 to 3 minutes
All we can do is hope for the best and be prepared with earthquake kits, plenty of bottled water and try to make our homes as safe as possible.
Last edited by californio sur; 08-21-2010 at 09:11 AM..
The LA Times and local television stations have been reporting the news issued by the earthquakes experts and it is not good. But at least the area were they see the worst stress is well over 100 miles north of Los Angeles in the Carrizo Plain of extreme southern Monterey county. I hope if a major quake occurs up there that we will be far enough south to avoid lots of damage. The 1857 earthquake was 7.9 and lasted 1 to 3 minutes
All we can do is hope for the best and be prepared with earthquake kits, plenty of bottled water and try to make our homes as safe as possible.
yes but it will travel down the San Andreas fault line and end at the Salton Sea
Do a Google news search for "Southern California overdue" or "San Andreas" and you get 100s of results
Last edited by BacktoBlue; 08-21-2010 at 09:00 AM..
yes but it will travel down the San Andreas fault line and end at the Salton Sea
Do a Google news search for "Southern California overdue" or "San Andreas" and you get 100s of results
One big question is - where does the rupture stop? Since the southern San Andreas Fault is the most stressed, it is widely assumed one terminus will be at the southern end at the Salton Sea - but where will the nothern terminus be? The Shakeout scenario considers a situation in which the rupture goes into Kern County. But maybe the rupture stops at Wrightwood (the southern terminus of the 1857 earthquake, so there's less accumulated stress on that portion of the fault). Or maybe at the San Gorgonio Pass. Not only would a smaller rupture be less damaging, but aid would be enhanced by the fact that a smaller less destruction 'footprint', so to speak, frees up more emergency services to be concentrated on those damaged areas.
Alternately, maybe another half century or more passes and the rupture is truly epic, from the Salton Sea all the way northwest to Parkfield.
One big question is - where does the rupture stop? Since the southern San Andreas Fault is the most stressed, it is widely assumed one terminus will be at the southern end at the Salton Sea - but where will the nothern terminus be? The Shakeout scenario considers a situation in which the rupture goes into Kern County. But maybe the rupture stops at Wrightwood (the southern terminus of the 1857 earthquake, so there's less accumulated stress on that portion of the fault). Or maybe at the San Gorgonio Pass. Not only would a smaller rupture be less damaging, but aid would be enhanced by the fact that a smaller less destruction 'footprint', so to speak, frees up more emergency services to be concentrated on those damaged areas.
Alternately, maybe another half century or more passes and the rupture is truly epic, from the Salton Sea all the way northwest to Parkfield.
So many variables with unknown quanitites...
According to the article in the newspaper, the 1857 Tejon earthquake was actually much further north near Parkfield but the shaking was so bad at Rancho Tejon that they thought it was located there.
You're not considering the release of the giant ants in the equation. That's when the **** really hits the fan.
Yes, of course, I forgot the ants. Even alone if the giant ants were gigantic enough they could devour Los Angeles and have Cleveland for dessert!
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Originally Posted by SoCalBrad
Yes but that affected a small area. This one is supposed to effect the whole half of the state and I'm pretty sure the infrastructure would be a lot worse since it's more widespread
Supposed to? Supposed to??? You seriously do not need any license to write a piece about California falling into the ocean or having a magnitude 14 earthquake. That doesn't make it true, nor should you believe everything you read. Perhaps there could be a really big quake, maybe bigger than we've had, maybe even a lot bigger, but earthquakes have some upper limit because there's only so much stress the Earth's crust can take before it snaps.
The chances of an earthquake so large as to dwarf all known quakes are pretty remote, particularly when you factor in "in our lifetime" (a very short time in geological terms). You should put your worrying in perspective. There's lots worse things that are more likely to happen to you than earthquakes. Worry about them first.
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