Real Estate is tanking (Los Angeles, Santa Barbara: sales, rent, houses)

[desertdawgx]

I am seeing prices down 50% in the Antelope Valley and sales in the Pacific Palisades are down 90%. Big crash underway get out now and flippers will be crushed.

[greggd]

Originally Posted by desertdawgx

I am seeing prices down 50% in the Antelope Valley and sales in the Pacific Palisades are down 90%. Big crash underway get out now and flippers will be crushed.

I looked at a place in the Palisades last weekend that was, from every angle, a POS.

Very poor layout and flow, they removed all the furniture to make it appear bigger. Some rooms have low-low ceilings, original everything, dirty walls, cabinets, not too much light. looked like an overpriced emotional sale by the surviving relative.

I walked out thinking its a tear down, but on the other hand, the lot isn't that good - no 2nd story additions allowed in this tract. Top it off, Neighbors downslope about 15 feet are underneath the tiny backyard with major rooftop views.

3 days later...Today, on the MLS, its in escrow. looking for backup.

[desertdawgx]

Alot of those deals will fall out of escrow and it is still way too soon to buy,sales are off 90% there so it is a matter of time.In 2 years they will be much lower and in 5 years they will be cheap.Houses are not stocks you have to be very pacient.

[Sorcerer68]

When I first saw this post, I thought it must be a year old. This is old news and you've been squawking this for a long time now. Need more air time?

Next interest rates will climb. We'll see 8% or more in 2 years.

[KnoxTown]

Does this help a potential buyer in a year or so?

[greggd]

Originally Posted by desertdawgx

Alot of those deals will fall out of escrow and it is still way too soon to buy,sales are off 90% there so it is a matter of time.In 2 years they will be much lower and in 5 years they will be cheap.Houses are not stocks you have to be very pacient.

Two homes went up within the past 3 weeks, both are now in escrow.

3rd house is up across the street. We will see what happens to all three.

I suspect they will all close escrow.

Ocean Views are not options in sprawl of Antelope Valley.

[desertdawgx]

Sales are down in the Pacific Palisades 90% perhaps you should go to dataquick and see all the year over year price declines in the nicest coastal areas.I am an old timer and have seen the booms the busts in Los Angeles and this one will be a doozy.Santa Barbara prices are down 20% and you don't get any nicer area than that.As for the Antelope Valley the homes I bought for 50k went up 500% in 6 years and with only 5k down on each one.You do the math as far as leverage and profit.No coastal homes went up 500% in the same time period.

[mommabear2]

Originally Posted by desertdawgx

I am seeing prices down 50% in the Antelope Valley and sales in the Pacific Palisades are down 90%. Big crash underway get out now and flippers will be crushed.

My father bought property out here 30 years ago. It was expensive then. It's expensive now. It will always be expensive. The down turn in the market is nothing new and not even remotely surprising. It will still not be affordable to the majority of people who live in the U.S. even if the market value tanks by 20%. The median single family house will never be 250K again. EVER. Not in L.A. County at least (unless you are living in the ghetto). That ship has sailed.

[Jakehorror]

So we may be able to buy a house in the L.A. area someday? No way! I'll keep my fingers crossed (and my rent payments on time). I don't think we'll ever own a home in SoCal

[motoman]

Originally Posted by mommabear2

My father bought property out here 30 years ago. It was expensive then. It's expensive now. It will always be expensive. The down turn in the market is nothing new and not even remotely surprising. It will still not be affordable to the majority of people who live in the U.S. even if the market value tanks by 20%. The median single family house will never be 250K again. EVER. Not in L.A. County at least (unless you are living in the ghetto). That ship has sailed.

That's interesting, because around $250,000 is what the median income in the LA area supports.

The historical differential between owning and renting in the LA area has been about $600 per month. At the peak of this bubble it was about $1,800 per month. That $1,200 per month differential is the equivalent to about $190,000, which means it would not be unrealistic to see median prices fall back to the $300,000-$350,000 level.