How soon until the LA rental market hits SF/NYC level? (San Francisco: crime, mortgage)

[jm1982]

Originally Posted by ryanms3030

You'll still have plenty of undocumented illegals working for half that. Higher minimum wage will effect bigger chain fast food and retail and it will cause prices for everything to go up and be more competition for jobs. So basically higher minimum wage will cause COL to go up for everyone and unemployment will likely remain the same because its not going to create new jobs and if anything it will cause a decrease in jobs.

Yeah exactly. Actually there is a recent article showing that in Seattle unemployment has gone up since this wage increase..
Sure it's not ideal to have a bunch of people working for minimum wage..but is it better to have them unemployed making $0?..

https://www.aei.org/publication/the-...ak-the-system/

Also recently the State of Oregon recently signed a new min wage law. This just happened.
Oregon Minimum Wage Set At $14.75 After Governor Signed the Bill Amidst Opposition?s Defiance : Law & Society : Lawyer Herald

I think another big thing is that it will motivate less people to go to college.
"Why go to college and spend all that time and money on a degree to make the same or a couple bucks more than hour"
Plenty of people with college degrees working for $15 or less even.

I know some people say "Well ALL wages will go up!" ..where is that money going to come from?..
The money has to come from somewhere

[jm1982]

Originally Posted by NyWriterdude

Agreed. Without a professional job you are going to have to live like a recent immigrant long term in overcrowded home. The worst part is retirement. Would social security cover your rent? Most likely not. So unless you are ultimately going to be able to own your home and have retirement income moving to LA permanently makes no sense.

If you're from SoCal, NYC, or SF, being born in these areas (or having family or close friends in them) will help you more easily find opportunities than some poor person who moves to these areas with no education and no connections.

I agree....I think that SoCal, NYC and SF are probably the worst places for someone to move to , unless of course they have a high paying job lined up.

Despite this there is still a lot of California Dreaming. I mean look at all the people that play the Lotto even though the odds are 1 out of several MILLION.
Moving to L.A people are going to have a better chance of success, than that.

I think these cities will pretty much always have a pretty good sized young transplant population. Younger people are often more optimistic. Even though it might not make financial sense, they'll still come to these cities and hustle and do what they can just for the chance to live here...even if it means a bunch of roommates or sleeping on couches.
I was born here, but perhaps if I had been raised in a smaller city or town I would have the same desire to move to L.A , impossible to say

[jamills21]

Revealed: the 30-year economic betrayal dragging down Generation Y

[NyWriterdude]

Originally Posted by jm1982

I agree....I think that SoCal, NYC and SF are probably the worst places for someone to move to , unless of course they have a high paying job lined up.

Despite this there is still a lot of California Dreaming. I mean look at all the people that play the Lotto even though the odds are 1 out of several MILLION.
Moving to L.A people are going to have a better chance of success, than that.

I think these cities will pretty much always have a pretty good sized young transplant population. Younger people are often more optimistic. Even though it might not make financial sense, they'll still come to these cities and hustle and do what they can just for the chance to live here...even if it means a bunch of roommates or sleeping on couches.
I was born here, but perhaps if I had been raised in a smaller city or town I would have the same desire to move to L.A , impossible to say

Sort of. These cities will always have lots of young people wanting to come and live for a few years, whether it's just to hang out, to make it in whatever business, or to study. But even the young people have changed. As noted, younger Americans moving to these cities tend to be more educated and affluent to begin with. There are too many illegals to compete with to move to a big city these days and expect to last in a restaurant or bar job. When I was last in LA (Jan) many of the American bartenders I met were telling me they were planning on bailing out of LA and moving to the Midwest, after I told them that I was from NY and I loved LA.

[jm1982]

I agree , but what I noticed is that illegals are less likely to he hired for the higher paying or more desirable service jobs . A place might hire a young blonde transplant to be a waiter or waitress , and have undocumented or illegal workers in the back in the kitchen or as bus boys
so I think an American born and native English speaker will still have an advantage in that sense .
I have not seen any bartenders in LA that look like they could be illegal aliens.
Bartenders can make good money per hour , but it seems it's only during certain hours... Like weekend nights .

[ryanms3030]

Originally Posted by jm1982

I agree , but what I noticed is that illegals are less likely to he hired for the higher paying or more desirable service jobs . A place might hire a young blonde transplant to be a waiter or waitress , and have undocumented or illegal workers in the back in the kitchen or as bus boys
so I think an American born and native English speaker will still have an advantage in that sense .
I have not seen any bartenders in LA that look like they could be illegal aliens.
Bartenders can make good money per hour , but it seems it's only during certain hours... Like weekend nights .

Bartenders and waiters are exempt from minimum wage because they get tips

[Astral_Weeks]

Originally Posted by ryanms3030

Bartenders and waiters are exempt from minimum wage because they get tips

That is not the case in California.

http://www.dir.ca.gov/dlse/faq_minimumwage.htm

[jm1982]

Yeah not so in CA...they still get the min wage. it varies a lot depending on the state.
U.S. Department of Labor - Wage & Hour Divisions (WHD) - Minimum Wages for Tipped Employees

In CA it's $10hr.
In other states it's as low as $2.13hr for "base pay"

Makes a huge difference in operating costs for a business.

You could hire 4.69 employees (servers or bartenders) in Texas for the same as 1 in CA.
Pretty amazing if you think about it.

[Astral_Weeks]

Originally Posted by jm1982

Yeah not so in CA...they still get the min wage. it varies a lot depending on the state.
U.S. Department of Labor - Wage & Hour Divisions (WHD) - Minimum Wages for Tipped Employees

In CA it's $10hr.
In other states it's as low as $2.13hr for "base pay"

Makes a huge difference in operating costs for a business.

You could hire 4.69 employees (servers or bartenders) in Texas for the same as 1 in CA.
Pretty amazing if you think about it.

Better comparison would be to other expensive states/areas (New York, Conn., New Jersey, Mass., etc.).

[jm1982]

Originally Posted by Astral_Weeks

Better comparison would be to other expensive states/areas (New York, Conn., New Jersey, Mass., etc.).

I should of given a city level comparison instead.

All of Texas isn't cheap, if you look at Austin for example it's not really cheap to live there these days. But likely cheaper than L.A
Let's say if you were opening a new restaurant/bar to appeal to a certain demographic that is found in both L.A and Austin. But if the labor costs to start up are so much lower in Austin , the owner will have an advantage and it's less risky.

I see so many places open up only to close up soon in L.A , sure it's not the only city where it happens..but the high costs of operating i'm sure play a role.

It'll get worse too when wages go up to $15 hr.
It's also going to be higher end places that will be able to afford to operate..which isn't good for the lower income or middle class consumer.
We've already seen this happening where gentrification will turn a dive bar into a hipster or yuppie bar with higher drink prices as an example.
No more $4 well drinks, it's $8 beers and $12-14 cocktails.
I'm not saying it's necessarily a bad thing ,I think it's good to have a mix of places , high end, middle and low end.
I guarantee though that a 50% wage increase will close at least some of people's favorite old school neighborhood spots.
You'll have more business owners going after a higher income level customer.