Southern California Home Prices - COVID 19 (Los Angeles, Orange: for sale, movers, brokers)

[brianbar]

Isn't it the service industry workers and those being laid off who power the economy in the first place? Refinancing your house for cash has never been a financially smart or popular idea. It's much better to pay off/down your mortgage and have cash in the bank or higher yielding investments than your home.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by JohnG72

People acting like this is a crazy deadly disease and it isn’t. On the lowest estimate, it’s barely worse than a bad flu season, which you largely never hear about.

One can't compare a virus that has not even peaked to one that has completely run its course.

[ScottineVoyager154]

I think the market has been cooling awhile though, even before the virus. I'd say after 2017 it started fluctuating and cooling slowly. Everything runs its course, the market was great in the 80s, then it fell from 1990-1993, then it was great again, then it fell again in the late 2000's, then it was great again. Would be nice to have a market that stays strong longer than 7-10 years, but that has not happened in America, ever. I know Australia had no recession in over 25 years, so perhaps they are doing something right! But now that we have the virus I think the market is being affected in all countries.

[JohnG72]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

One can't compare a virus that has not even peaked to one that has completely run its course.

But we can work with projections. So much so that the Mayor and Governor both do.

So I don’t understand the point you are trying to make.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by JohnG72

But we can work with projections. So much so that the Mayor and Governor both do.

So I don’t understand the point you are trying to make.

That your statement is incorrect about this being "barely worse than a bad flu season." Scroll back.

Originally Posted by JohnG72

People acting like this is a crazy deadly disease and it isn’t. On the lowest estimate, it’s barely worse than a bad flu season, which you largely never hear about. I get other crazy stuff could happen, but right now, the death rate is very low

To use your term, it actually is "a crazy, deadly disease."

[goodheathen]

Old people are scared (of one of the most contagious diseases ever) and will sell and head to less developed areas (some outside the country). That alone probably will lower home prices.

Also, assuming there won't be a great recovery for the film industry, many wealthy veteran actors, producers, and so on might decide to retire early and relocate.

[JohnG72]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

That your statement is incorrect about this being "barely worse than a bad flu season." Scroll back.



To use your term, it actually is "a crazy, deadly disease."

What I said was:

People acting like this is a crazy deadly disease and it isn’t. On the lowest estimate, it’s barely worse than a bad flu season,

Which is factually correct. If you want to intentionally twist my words to make a different meaning of what I said, I guess that’s your prerogative.

[grad_student200]

Originally Posted by ima30something

Home prices will dip slightly but nothing like 2008. Reasons:

- This is not a real estate crisis. Thanks to stricter lending laws since 2008, many who currently have a mortgage are much more qualified buyers than pre-2008. In addition, don’t forget about all of those cash buyers that everyone in LA has complained about for the past 10 years.

- The service industry type of workers are the most effected by loss of income and they are typically renters. Professionals who own such as doctors, lawyers etc are still busy.

- interest rates are at all time lows.

- Thanks for high appreciation over the past 10 years, if someone did loose their job and needed cash, they could just refinance and obtain some serious cash. Chances are many distressed owners aren’t at all underwater like they were in 2008.

Law firms are going through layoffs. Law graduates have been struggling with their job search among law firms for more than a decade.

The only "JD" that is very powerful in the job market is a JD/PhD in patent law such that the PhD is in STEM (e.g. electrical engineering, biochemistry, computer science, genetics, etc).

With that said, you are right that most service industry workers likely rent (albeit exceptions can be found there too). But tech companies, banks, and credit card companies are going through layoffs right now. Startups are downsizing too. The only industry still "stable" would be government, defense, cybersecurity, and some (not all) medical device companies or pharmacy companies. Niche areas like telemedicine, online meetings, network equipment, grocery chains, etc. also exist that are actually in high demand.

So, overall even the professional jobs could take a hit in downsizing in LA. Would that impact the housing prices? I don't know. I am not an expert in that field. As a former homeowner in Florida, I experienced the housing bubble of 2007-2009 that crashed. My equity didn't rebound until 2017. Then I finally sold it. I would like to wait until the next bubble before buying a home. The housing prices here in Phoenix went up dramatically the past ten years. But I think that could change now because of the economy.

[Fontucky]

I'm just now seeing noticeable drops of 5 to 21k in areas that had been selling at more than asking price due to multiple offers and bidding.

[cruitr]

Much to my amazement, San Diego seems to be holding rock solid. This condo near my home sold in 4 days.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/...Gi8FZwNE1ZvgWI