Do you think housing prices are STILL going down in California? (Los Angeles: fit in, credit card)

[motoman]

Originally Posted by BRinSM

I found this interesting article relating to what Sorcerer68 was saying. http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf...s_collapse.pdf

Take a look at the last page and see the map of the LA area. It pretty much sums up the fact that real estate can have submarkets within the same region and that location is currently the driving force in the our market.

I know that we will see more price declines in the more wealthy neighborhoods in LA, but I highly doubt that they will be as significant as those in the IE and AV as people are being forced to live closer to work because commuting such great distances is becoming cost prohibitive.

Very interesting! Thanks for posting that.

[karkyco]

Yeah Brin, thanks for that.

I've been thinking about how much the demand for the prime, high end neighborhoods as well as demand for areas closest to key financial and business centers will be able to counterbalance the rapid decline brought on by the subprime fiasco, the lending/credit crunch, and the coming prime option ARM resets.

[Rats]

the housing prices in LA really will not go down that much more. I expect another 10-15% in the metro areas before it bottoms out, not the 30-50% needed to take them down to "realistic" levels. The rich and smart will scoop up everything before it has a chance to drop that much. Yesterday I just went to an open house in Eagle Rock... 3 bed, 2 bath, 2000+ sqft, and a 12000 sqft lot, AMAZING view, listed for $639k. In 10 years this house will easily be worth a million or more. For this house to be worth much less than $600k is unimaginable.

[Charles]

Originally Posted by Rats

listed for $639k. In 10 years this house will easily be worth a million or more.

That's about an average annual 5% appreciation.

[GLS]

Originally Posted by Charles

That is an excellent table.

I popped all those tables into excel. There are some amazing changes.

For number of sales/zip code greater than 30, these towns had at least a 40% drop (duplicates because multiple zip codes per town):
Perris
Lake Elsinore
Victorville
Hemet
San Jacinto
Dsrt Hot Springs
Rialto
Santa Ana
Santa Maria
Lancaster
Adelanto
Fontana
Lancaster
Victorville
Perris
Victorville
Poway
Palmdale
Palmdale
Hesperia
San Bernardino
Moreno Valley
Moreno Valley


For number of sales/zip code greater than 10, all these towns had positive changes may07 to may08

LA
Beverly Hills
San Marino
LA
Northridge
Pasadena
Rancho Mirage
Huntington Beach
Santa Barbara
Newport Beach
Santa Barbara
LA/Bel-Air
Anaheim Hills
Laguna Beach
Venice
Whittier
Carlsbad
Redondo Beach
Fullerton
LA
Rancho P.V.
Scripps Ranch

The first group seems desert-focused. The second group is closer to the ocean and job opportunities without distant commuting. My observation may be overly simplistic. Do you see other correlations?

[Sorcerer68]

Originally Posted by GLS

The first group seems desert-focused. The second group is closer to the ocean and job opportunities without distant commuting. My observation may be overly simplistic. Do you see other correlations?

They are nice neighborhoods.

[karkyco]

Originally Posted by GLS

The first group seems desert-focused. The second group is closer to the ocean and job opportunities without distant commuting. My observation may be overly simplistic. Do you see other correlations?

Well, yes you are correct in your observation, however you could simply say the first list is of far less desirable areas (far inland desert communities mainly), while the second list is mainly of the most desirable parts of the southland.

[Rats]

Originally Posted by Charles

That's about an average annual 5% appreciation.

Yep, and it's in a beautiful area that is rapidly gentrifying. Did you see the LA Times this morning? The LAPD is cracking down hardcore on the gangs here... they just made a HUGE bust. Soon the gangs will be gone and all the low income residents will have been priced out of this area.
If you drive up Mt. Washington or some parts of Eagle Rock, it looks almost like Beverly Hills. You see the people there and think... no way they should be living there.

[karkyco]

Yup, just as most of the higher elevation parts of LA are so much more desirable, this has always been the case, many of these areas went "undiscovered", but as the prices rose in the west hills from Beverly Hills through the Hollywood Hills (west and east), to Los Feliz, people have found alternatives that the locals already knew about.

Many of the areas around these locales still have a long way to go in terms of gentrification, but as you said, there are beautiful, no, beyond that...simply stunning properties throughout these locations, many from the turn of the 20th Century and quite stately. Victorians, California Craftsmans, and Spanish Revivals that are amazing and on huge lots with nice large, well built homes with spectacular views.

[Delron]

I got a property I want to redevelop in Mount Washington. I agree with you guys - I think that area is going to be fantastic long term, since there is good public transportation and it's already so close to downtown and a lot of other key parts - Glendale, Hollywood, Burbank, Pasadena, and even midcity and the westside.

I know prices are already pretty brutal around there, but I think they will go even lower and it will be the buying opportunity of a lifetime for longterm rental properties with all the gentrification going on. Beautiful, classy, 100 year old homes. Like the best parts of Hancock Park, OLD money Pasadena, and many other high end parts of LA, but without the stratospheric prices...at least not yet!