Do you think housing prices are STILL going down in California? (Los Angeles: middle-class, foreclosed)

[ArizonaBear]

I just glanced at prices on realtor.com for the Hemet area and damn near fell out of my chair------single family homes (albeit probably fixer uppers but still) for well under $75K!

Those sorts of prices are on a collision course downward with those here in the Phx area.

[GoalieG03]

To my knowledge we shouldn't start seeing an upraising until 12-24 months. Hold out for a bit longer if you can, but if you see the "right" place go for it! People are desperate!

[scout1lt]

What would be a good price for a home in BURBANK?

[Sorcerer68]

Keep in mind interest rates are as low as they're going to get. The Fed has parked them at 2%, the lowest ever. A rise in interest rates figures substantially into the equation of purchase price and monthly payments.

The only areas I've seen not fall is the little island of West Hollywood/Sunset Strip I work in. Every other place falls from just a tiny bit to catastrophic. Yes, now is a great time to buy, sellers are motivated. In my neighborhood, things still sell in under a week for over full price with multiple offers if they're priced right, easy to see and in great condition. One house listed at a mil just sold for 1.3 in 4 days. It's all about which micromarket you're in. The rule of thumb is usually the crappier the place, the more it fell. Some areas have 3 years of inventory (like Rancho Cucomunga). Long Beach is a great place to pick up the scraps.

[Joycee26]

yes, I think it has some way to go in the outskirts of Los Angeles, but I think the westside won't go down too much. This is due to supply and demand. This is an example how location is the most important ting in home values. It's better to buy a dump in a good neighborhood, than a treasure is a less popular area. Now, this is only if you are buying a house to look at as an investment. Most people purchase a house to meet the needs of their family, and to live in and enjoy.

[mrsmarquezmoses]

Originally Posted by motoman

Prices will continue to drop until people can actually afford to buy. Right now, even though prices have dropped $100k plus in LA, the price-to-income ratio is still too high.

As an example, there was an article in the LA Times a week or so ago addressing price-to-income in San Bernadino-Riverside. The average from 1980 to 2000 was 3.7x. Meaning, on average, the median price of a house was 3.7x the median income. At the peak of the bubble that number was over 7x. Clearly not a sustainable situation. So from the peak, prices in San Bernadino-Riverside could reasonably be expected to fall by almost 50%. I don't know where they peaked there, or where they are now.

In LA, the median household income is about $60,000. If we assumed a 4x multiple, we could imply that the median home price should be around $240,000. The last I saw prices were still in the $350,000-$400,000 range. If you're making $60,000 per year, the absolute most you should be paying for a house is about $250,000. AT MOST!!!!!

So to buy a $350,000 house, you need to be making, at an absolute minimum, somewhere in the $85,000-$90,000 range, which is well above the median income for LA.

The California Assocation of Realtors says you can buy a $500,000 house with gross income of just $100,000 per year. Which may be true if you have $100,000 for a down payment (we all have $100,000 in cash lying around, don't we), no car payments, no credit card debt, no student loans, you don't save a dime for retirement, you have no major healthcare costs, and you live very frugally. Of course, that fits the description of eveyone in LA, doesn't it? In other words, the CAR is smoking crack.

Wait for another year or two. It will take at least that long for prices to bottom. This was a large bubble and it will not fully deflate overnight. Give it time. Don't be in a hurry. And remember that a $500,000, $400,000, even $300,000 house is not a bargain just because everyone else is ignorant enough to live above their means and pay that amount for a place to sleep.

yOUR right !

[scout1lt]

Originally Posted by Rats

the housing prices in LA really will not go down that much more. I expect another 10-15% in the metro areas before it bottoms out, not the 30-50% needed to take them down to "realistic" levels. The rich and smart will scoop up everything before it has a chance to drop that much. Yesterday I just went to an open house in Eagle Rock... 3 bed, 2 bath, 2000+ sqft, and a 12000 sqft lot, AMAZING view, listed for $639k. In 10 years this house will easily be worth a million or more. For this house to be worth much less than $600k is unimaginable.

I totally agree! The problem with L.A. is that yes, houses are not affordable; however, the rich will still buy them in order to make a profit in the future. If you see something decent I would jump on it NOW! Otherwise, you will be buying it for the same price or more from some "flipper" or corp exec looking to make a buck! Basically, it SUCKS being a middle class working man in L.A.!

[mark85]

Does anyone know of a source of info on historical home values by neighborhood, that goes back as far as 20 years? The city profile pages on city-data only show values going back 5 years. I know that prices took about 10 years to fully recover after the late 80's crash on an overall basis (not sure if this accounts for inflation), but I'd like to see how specific communities fared. For example, did areas on the westside rebound faster?

[harhar]

Like some have said already, house prices will go down for a while. I don't expect it to fully "normalize" against a past median income level, but it will go down.

I think the "bailing out" of some homebuyers and lenders (even though I don't agree with it) was probably meant to lessen the burst than anything. It had less to do with helping out and more to do with stopping panic and a sharp decline in prices.

I think in about 12-24 months we'll see (hopefully) a raise in median incomes, and houses where they "should" be. That is to say, if people are not just handed homes and loans are on the up and up.

My personal goal is to find a decent home for around $400,000 in 3-5 years. I strongly doubt that house prices are going to be THAT low.

That means I'll have to make more money.

[hsw]

Originally Posted by mark85

Does anyone know of a source of info on historical home values by neighborhood, that goes back as far as 20 years? The city profile pages on city-data only show values going back 5 years. I know that prices took about 10 years to fully recover after the late 80's crash on an overall basis (not sure if this accounts for inflation), but I'd like to see how specific communities fared. For example, did areas on the westside rebound faster?

Have seen this data published in various articles....even in various LA Times profiles of different suburban areas...

IIRC, by '94, Westside's better areas depreciated about 40% from '89 peak...and only achieved '89 prices in '00.....

Westside has different dynamics than much of LA region, but still subject to many humbling market forces....but no two Bubble Bursts are alike...

Part of the elegance and liquidity of a buyers' mkt is that smart, creditworthy potential buyers can easily rent a newly-built unsold house/condo on Westside (if need immediate shelter), as they observe/analyze the on-going real estate/credit crisis....no real rush to "catch a falling knife"....these cycles often play out over many yrs....and often have a U-shape, not a V-shape....