Do you think housing prices are STILL going down in California? (Los Angeles: appliances, employment)

[Charles]

Originally Posted by cmw2133

Is there any easy way to figure out at what prices homes are actually selling as opposed to their list price?

Yes, this site www.city-data.com. Enter a zip code to get started then scroll down and enter an address and click on recent sales. Very useful, you can pull most recent or most close by.

Also try trulia and zillow.

[Charles]

10 worst real-estate markets for 2009 - Los Angeles (1) - FORTUNE

Don't shoot the messenger.

[ITChick]

Originally Posted by Charles

10 worst real-estate markets for 2009 - Los Angeles (1) - FORTUNE

Don't shoot the messenger.

That would be the 10 worst for the Seller.

Since the declaration last week that the Feds are going to do a near zero interest rate, some properties in L.A. county that I've been keeping watch on have actually raised their home prices.

[ITChick]

Originally Posted by sheri257

I've probably mentioned this before but ... is anybody actually getting or going to get these low prices? I'm wondering if you guys are seeing in LA what I'm seeing on the central coast.

Sure, prices are dropping but there's also multiple bidding wars so good luck actually getting any of these properties. At least the decent ones. Lower prices also breed more bidding wars making it more difficult to actually get anything.

Unless you have a ton of cash (which is what the banks want) to make a cash offer ... it's very difficult.

That is so true! When I find out there are multiple offers on a property (and the Realtor is willing to put me on a waiting list) I just walk away.

[ITChick]

Originally Posted by cmw2133

Is there any easy way to figure out at what prices homes are actually selling as opposed to their list price?

You can also check your local Sunday Paper too. I find that to be more accurate than Zillow or Trulia since it's within two weeks time of data.

[BRinSM]

Originally Posted by Charles

10 worst real-estate markets for 2009 - Los Angeles (1) - FORTUNE

Don't shoot the messenger.

there were a lot of socal cities on that list, eek!!! good for me though. a 25% drop in prices would really open up a lot doors for the wife and i.

anyways, did anyone else notice that the picture for sacramento is actually century city here in LA, oops!

[greggd]

Originally Posted by ITChick

You can also check your local Sunday Paper too. I find that to be more accurate than Zillow or Trulia since it's within two weeks time of data.

I've notices the real estate properties advertised in the LA Times seem to be the problem listings. A real estate agent has access to the area sale prices.

[drshang]

A few things about housing prices/the housing market:

- Don't necessarily trust Realtors to give you accurate portrayals of comp prices in your neighborhood, and especially don't trust them to give you investment advice or any kind of macroeconomic prediction on the market. They can be very selective with what properties/sales/data they give you. They are sales people who are interested in creating transactions, that is how they make a living. Do not forget that.

- Look at key metrics in your neighborhood such as price to own vs. price to rent and median house price to median income. IMO the house prices in LA county are 15-30% overvalued but that can depend on zip code.

- If you're curious, do a Google search on the last real estate recession to hit the LA area. Good neighborhoods fell just as much as bad neighborhoods, but they significantly lagged the market. If this pattern continues in this recession, which would be consistent with past recessions, this means good neighborhoods will bottom after bad neighborhoods.

- The market has not bottomed until there is a confirmed uptick over a significant sample of home SALES (not asking prices). Just because people are trying to fetch more money for their house due to lower interest rates or one home sold more than the last one doesn't mean much. Just because inventory drops for a month doesn't mean the housing market has bottomed. A bottom means prices have already gone up. Historically real estate recessions do not follow a V shape like the stock market, they generally stay pretty flat for a while after they bottom, which means you aren't really leaving much money on the table by waiting.

- My opinion is all of you need to consider the risk:reward of purchasing a home right now. If the best case scenario is that housing prices don't decline much/at all more and the worst case scenario is they drop another 30-35%, does it really make sense to purchase a home? Your "upside" is virtually nil and your "downside" is you lose all your equity and basically have to foreclose to get out of a terrible investment decision. Housing markets, historically, do not recover quickly at all after they bottom. Equity markets will recover 15-20% in a matter of days after a bottom; housing prices not so much.

This housing market has not shown a bottom in LA in even the worst zip codes, which means the better zip codes are no where close to hitting bottom. There is a possibility this recession behaves differently than every other recession before it, but I don't know about you, I am not going to gamble tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars on a trend not following history, especially when you consider unemployment will continue to increase and there are no signs of a general economic recovery anytime in the near term.

[Huckleberry3911948]

when you feed a bear (bad behavior) he will come back.
the houses prices will fall again.

[cmw2133]

Originally Posted by Charles

Yes, this site www.city-data.com. Enter a zip code to get started then scroll down and enter an address and click on recent sales. Very useful, you can pull most recent or most close by.

Also try trulia and zillow.

Thanks.

I was looking at zillow and it occurred to me that the crisis is kind of self-perpetuating... as housing prices fall, more and more (potential) buyers will find themselves underwater on their current mortgage and thus unable to leave their current home and move to a new one. With a dearth of buyers, housing prices fall further, meaning more potential buyers are underwater in the homes they're in. Do I have that right?