Are we or are we not in a Recession? (Los Angeles: to rent, home)

[goodbyehollywood]

They almost always go back and restate the quarterly numbers. When they do that, negative growth may well be reflected. The talking heads are being very careful to sidestep around the "R" word as much as possible. Consumer sentiment is so negative (worst since the '80s), debt so high and purchasing power so weak that the puppetmasters are trying to stave off panic. Panic will trigger a plunge in the stock market and a screeching halt to spending, both of which will domino the market downward. But we're already in a bear market, oil is way up, so are food costs, inflation is creeping uncomfortably higher, foreclosures are rising, companies are laying off workers, banks are teetering, the debt load is out of this world, the trade deficit is outrageous, the indebted can't pay bills and the savers can't save enough for retirement at the Fed's ridiculously low rates. The low rates aren't doing anything except tanking the dollar. The global market now prefers Euros. The Fed has no silver bullet.

Hard times aren't just coming-- they're here. They've been here for many people caught up in the real estate and credit crunches. My guess is that the powers that be are waiting as long as possible to restate and then they'll simply say: oops, we were in a recession, but now we've bottomed and better days are ahead. A lot of people think we're in a stealth recession-- and have been for months. Personally, I hope we are. I would like to think that a big part of the downslide is behind us and that in the upcoming months, we will be groping for a bottom. Pushing off a bottom is so much more pleasant to contemplate than sliding into an abyss. If we are at this point and a recession isn't even on the radar, that will be life-changing. And not in a good way.

[John23]

I've been trying to figure out the truth about the economy for awhile now.

It's not easy with media exaggeration, terrible news reporting of business/economy for the average person (everything is geared towards wall street and government), biased government figures (core CPI...while I paid $6.50 for a gallon of milk this weekend).

I think if you judge it ancedotally, the so cal economy is down by at least 20% since the mid 90's, 96, 97:

-Culturally, things started to go crazy about that time. The rise of self help, pyscho babble, Suze Orman, etc. That doesn't happen in a strong economy.

-Look at videos from the 90's...NBA games, sports, whatever. The people there were better off than we are now.

-The rise of home equity loans, credit, the credit score mania. That doesn't happen in a strong economy.

-Collapse of the manufacturing and real goods economy. We went into a paper/credit/money shuffling economy.

-Inflation has gone crazy since then.

-The underemployed, part time workers, etc have been thoroughly covered up and ignored by the media.

The "offical" projections are complete nonsense for the average person. It's been a stealth recession for at least 10 years.

It's been games and shuffling for 10 years. But you can't hide the real evidence. Went to the Howard Hughes Center this weekend...judging from the mood, it's not a thriving economy. Certainly lower than it was 10 years ago.

[Charles]

Originally Posted by breeze823

Live like you always have, ignore the media and we won't fall into a recession!

That makes perfect economic sense.

[Charles]

Originally Posted by edelweiss

Mainstream media has FAR too much influence on the people and policies of this nation!!!

I average maybe one hour of TV a month.

What would bother you (the forum, not just the poster) more? Your 16 old kids watches an average of 20 hours of TV per week? OR, smokes pot once a month?

[Fighter 1]

Originally Posted by breeze823

Pick up a newspaper, or watch the news. They will lead you to believe that we are in a recession. As for me and my family, we ignore half of what the media tells us and continue to live our lives.
The media scares us, telling us how bad things are, then people are afraid to go spend their money and change their lifestyles.
Live like you always have, ignore the media and we won't fall into a recession!

EXCUSE ME ! what money , have you bought anything lately? Great I wish I could, I have a job but it's day by day. see i am not unemployed.

[Charles]

This should help answer the post:

http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/ (broken link)



(http://jameshowardkunstler.typepad.com/cluster****_nation/2008/06/not-your-grandmas-depression.html - broken link)

[CESpeed]

I don't see how anyone could think we are in a recession: salaries are dropping, rents are going up as fast as the law will allow, gas prices are soaring, food prices are soaring, people are having to rent out their living rooms to make rent, people with degrees are taking the barely above minimum wage jobs. How could anyone possibly think we are in a recession?

[desertsun41]

Originally Posted by breeze823

This is the bright side of things. My husband just got hired on by a very large, nationally known RV Dealership. They just built a 9million dollar facility and are relocating us for my husband to run this dealership. This company knows what they are doing. Would they, in the middle of a recession, build this "state of the art" dealership? I've got all my bets on NO!
Please people, don't listen to the media!
And people lose their jobs everyday, it's a sad fact. We've been there too. But it does not mean a recession.

RV dealership? I dont pay much attn to the media but my eyes are open and places like Las Vegas, Phoenix and Miami is in a depression while the rest of the country is in a recession. Texas is booming in every single economic catagory. Utah ain't doing too bad either.

But RV? Hey we are die hard RVers here. It's in our blood. But the writing is on the wall with RVs and boating, both American pastimes. With the price of gas it's only a matter of time. The wheels are already in motion. Since January 3 major RV manufacturers have shut down forever after a long successful business taking thousands more jobs with them.

Dont peg your future on his new job. I hope I am wrong but I know I am not. I wish you luck though.

[Sakana]

Our media definitely has an effect on our fears. But to answer this question.

Yes we are in a recession, and for places like Michigan and Indiana, they have been in it for quite some time. The whole world is feeling the effects of inflation, rising gas prices, food prices(the 3rd world is being hit really bad).
I've been living in the Inland Empire for the last year. Take my word for it. I see empty ghost towns of housing developments all around Corona, Riverside and Lake Elsinore.
4 houses on my block in Lake Elsinore have been empty for a few months now.

Will things get better? I have no idea. I believe things go up and down like they always do. If anything, the Inland Empire will probably be the first place in So Cal to see the future effects.

It will only get worse if we choose to be a Wartime Nation.

[marilyn220]

Originally Posted by Delron

Yeah, those reports/projections are full of it. You're not missing anything - the writing is on the wall. California finally couldn't hide the huge uptick in unemployed through statistical games and redefinitions of "unemployed", that's why the unemployment numbers shot up last month. "Official" unemployment for the state is, what, 6.1% now? The reality is no doubt closer or over 10%. And that doesn't include the vastly underemployed, the forced part time workers, etc.

You can't even go by unemployment statistics, because they're not including people who's benefits ran out and are no longer eligible.

There is a recession here if you're looking for a decent paying job. If not, then you'll find something.