LA's continuous population growth and its infrastructure (Oakland, Bradley: neighborhood, high school)

[majoun]

Originally Posted by AnUnidentifiedMale

Spoken like a true Angelino.

There's no sign that families want to give up detached houses, privacy, or peace and quiet.

If urban areas had better schools, families would be willing to give up those things, which is why I support school vouchers.

Angelenos who could afford to move to great school districts like Beverly Hills or Santa Monica ARE willing to give up detached houses and privacy which might exist in some LAUSD areas (and which do exist in some Westside LAUSD areas) for apartments or condos just so they can get their kids into better schools (the majority of the population of both BH and SM live in apartments and condos)

Those things are increasingly hard to find in L.A. County.

I think the inner suburbs like Culver City, Glendale, or South Pasadena will hold up OK mainly because of access to public transport (and all 3 of the places I mentioned have detached houses, privacy, and peace and quiet). It's the places which have NO access to public transport which will become undesirable and therefore ghetto once gas prices reach their old levels.

And detached houses and privacy don't necessarily mean peace and quiet forever - just look at the history of Southeast L.A. County or more recently the AV, or your very own IE.

[vegaspilgrim]

The Antelope Valley isn't all that bad: Palmdale, Acton, Vasquez Rocks photo tour.

[alexanderaf]

I just moved to El Segundo a week ago, and already I feel like I can get around on my bicycle easier than I can get around in my car. The car can get me places faster, but the parking can be a pain. I've passed up eating at a couple of appealing restaurants today in Santa Monica just because I couldn't find a place to put the car!

[UB50]

Originally Posted by majoun

I'm not optimistic about L.A. barring some major changes - I'm pessimistic about the entire region.

I am optimistic about LA! One thing I like about LA versus other areas is that there are a lot of different industries in LA. Unlike a lot of other cities, we are not dependent on one or two major industries to provide jobs.

Secondly, I feel a certain vibrancy in our various ethnic communities but particularly in the Asian areas. Remember when Koreatown was just a tiny little place? Koreans always seem like the last people to say "Oh woe is me, everything is bad." They just keep going. They make things work and they have a particular talent for turning lemons into lemonade. They are inventive and creative and all those things you need to be when times are not great. (How many places have Korean taco trucks? )

So, I think things will end up fine but I think we are going to need "nontraditional" ways of getting us out of this hole.

[AnUnidentifiedMale]

Originally Posted by majoun

When gas hits $5 a gallon, how attractive will those auto oriented suburbs be?

People have been saying that for decades. Gas mileage on new cars is only going to get better. Auto-oriented suburbs will always be attractive to people who want a yard, a quiet environment, and some privacy.

Familiar with what happened in Manhattan and SF?

Yes, which is why inner cities will continue to attract single people with money, and poor people who can take advantage of social welfare programs.

[AnUnidentifiedMale]

Originally Posted by majoun

And detached houses and privacy don't necessarily mean peace and quiet forever - just look at the history of Southeast L.A. County or more recently the AV, or your very own IE.

Overall, there will always be more privacy and less noise in a neighborhood of detached homes versus a neighborhood of condos and apartments.

[AnUnidentifiedMale]

Originally Posted by alexanderaf

I just moved to El Segundo a week ago, and already I feel like I can get around on my bicycle easier than I can get around in my car. The car can get me places faster, but the parking can be a pain. I've passed up eating at a couple of appealing restaurants today in Santa Monica just because I couldn't find a place to put the car!

Yes, and that's a good argument for lower density neighborhoods. Densely populated neighborhoods may have more "street life", but there's a whole bunch of drawbacks to them as well.

[majoun]

Originally Posted by AnUnidentifiedMale

Yes, which is why inner cities will continue to attract single people with money, and poor people who can take advantage of social welfare programs.

Actually, it's the school system that drives families out of cities (the term "inner city", invented to describe Chicago, really isn't that applicable to L.A. - after all, Florence and Normandie where the '92 riots broke out is farther from downtown than Beverly Hills is, and I've never heard BH or surrounding Westside areas referred to as "inner city"). Fix the school system (or put in vouchers) and you'll solve the problem.

Likewise, when auto-oriented suburbs get large poor populations, their school systems usually become no different than that of big cities, all else remaining the same. If you put the population of East Oakland, South Central LA, or Santa Ana into Temecula (I picked Temecula as it is the most affluent IE community), what do you think would happen to the school system?

The poor will go where they can afford housing, you living in the IE should know that. (You do realize that NYC is losing its poor people and that L.A.'s lost quite a few of its poor....)

[jzt83]

Originally Posted by majoun

The economic forecasts also said there would be no recession in 2008.



That's a vicious circle ; one could easily say because there are so many low wage low skill jobs that keeps certain people in and drives others out.

The economic forecasts also said that Vegas and Phoenix would continue to grow and prosper, and the current Little Depression looks like it will deliver the same death blow to those cities (and the Sunbelt in general) as the Reagan Recession did to Detroit and Cleveland (and the Midwest in general).

CREATE more high wage and high skill jobs and this will change.





Because of deliberate policy decisions and lack of political will to change things.



As if Riverside/San Bernardino don't have the exact same problems as L.A. with regards to low skilled low wage jobs and the people who live THERE...

To a lesser extent this is also true of San Diego.



Realistically, I don't see Southern California as a whole faring too well. IMO the Bay Area - if it manages to avoid a massive tailspin of riots, violence, earthquakes, etc.. as L.A. and vicinity did during the early '90s recession - will come out of the current recession in better shape, but I don't see any bright future for SoCal. I suspect SoCal in general will be pulled down with the Sunbelt just like places not technically in the Midwest (Western PA, upstate NY) got pulled down with it. Too bad, because I would really like to move back....

The Bay Area's population growth is only recently increasing after being relatively stagnant and in some cases decreasing. The area also has many high paying jobs and fewer people move here to make it in the industry,.

[majoun]

Originally Posted by jzt83

The Bay Area's population growth is only recently increasing after being relatively stagnant and in some cases decreasing. The area also has many high paying jobs

The Bay Area RETAINING its high paying jobs, despite similar issues of economic polarization, high costs of housing, homelessness, and various other social and ethnic tensions, are the main reason why I think it will bounce back after the recession is over.

If L.A. had RETAINED its high paying jobs, things would be very different.

SoCal, OTOH, is a different story, as this recession marks the end of the Sunbelt. If L.A. is to survive it would be by becoming a Chicago in the midst of a shattered region full of Detroits, Clevelands, Flints, etc. - as Chicago managed to survive the devastation of the Midwest during the Reagan recession, I hope that L.A. can do the same in the current recession

Sadly, I'm not optimistic.

and fewer people move here to make it in the industry,.

It wouldn't make sense for anyone to move here to make it in the industry (I'm in the City, not in L.A. - I post on L.A. boards as a way to connect with back home). Mainly because there isn't much of the Industry here.