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Old 01-05-2011, 09:40 AM
 
436 posts, read 748,054 times
Reputation: 214

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Quote:
Originally Posted by FLIGHTSIMMER View Post
Based on his past record hang on to you're wallet.
I don't think it will stop at just $500 a year as liberals have no concept of living on a budget, they don't care because you are paying for it so their solution for needing more money is just keep raising fees (code for taxes) This trend will never end.
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Old 01-05-2011, 09:47 AM
 
362 posts, read 677,103 times
Reputation: 160
Quote:
Originally Posted by Charles View Post
What is the absolute worst case Gov Brown's policies could be? How high could he raise taxes? How many services could he cut? What's it going to cost you? $500 a year? $1000/year?

You're going to find another job in another state, lose your seniority at your current job, pay $40,000 to sell your house (10% of a $400,000 house), lose all your friends, say good bye to your family, endure crappier weather, make all new connections, investigate a whole new slew of doctors...

...for a $500 a year?
While I do think people are jumping the gun here and need to give Brown time...

Your analysis is a bit over-simplistic.

IF Prop 13 were changed/killed, and residential homeowners are affected, they could be looking at a little bit more than $500 a year.

And that's just one example, and that's just localized to that one person. Anyone considering moving to another state is obviously not just concerned with only their personal impacts, but also the surrounding impacts and potential decline that will affect them on secondary levels, etc.

And further to your $500 a year determination... a remedial analysis of someone making even $50k per year moving to another state with lower income tax will demonstrate an impact of thousands of dollars... and combined with leveraging that with a lower cost of living is an attractive scenario for some; and yes, some have that option readily available to them.
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Old 01-05-2011, 10:08 AM
 
Location: Las Flores, Orange County, CA
26,346 posts, read 80,390,564 times
Reputation: 17405
Quote:
Originally Posted by Troof View Post

IF Prop 13 were changed/killed, and residential homeowners are affected, they could be looking at a little bit more than $500 a year.
Somebody, somewhere has probably performed an analysis of how repealing Prop 13 would impact people.

For those who have purchased in the last 10 or so years - little to no impact - they're already paying full fare.
People who purchased in the 1970s, a pretty big impact, but how many people are we talking about? 1%? 3%? 10%? I don't know (but they probably didn't complain when their kids were being educated at $8000/year per kid in government schools).

Houses are bought and sold every day, what's the average length of time a person has owned a home? It might be something like seven years, which may indicate the vast majority of people are relatively recent homeowners. I don't know, just hypothesizing.

Maybe repealing Prop 13 wouldn't be such a big deal. I hope it is repealed.
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Old 01-05-2011, 10:22 AM
 
362 posts, read 677,103 times
Reputation: 160
Quote:
Originally Posted by Charles View Post
Somebody, somewhere has probably performed an analysis of how repealing Prop 13 would impact people.

For those who have purchased in the last 10 or so years - little to no impact - they're already paying full fare.
People who purchased in the 1970s, a pretty big impact, but how many people are we talking about? 1%? 3%? 10%? I don't know (but they probably didn't complain when their kids were being educated at $8000/year per kid in government schools).

Houses are bought and sold every day, what's the average length of time a person has owned a home? It might be something like seven years, which may indicate the vast majority of people are relatively recent homeowners. I don't know, just hypothesizing.

Maybe repealing Prop 13 wouldn't be such a big deal. I hope it is repealed.
I'd be curious to see a study for sure... I'm just saying that there are a lot of financial factors that come into play here, that can easily top tens of thousands of dollars for someone considering a move.

However, at the same time, I recognize the intangible factors that you mention such as weather, family, etc... and those simply cannot be monetized with a "price".

So it really just comes down to a personal decision for anyone weighing such move. There's no universal right or wrong answer to such a dilemma...
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Old 01-05-2011, 01:04 PM
 
5 posts, read 9,196 times
Reputation: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by summerwriter View Post
This scares me because my husband is in the Southwest Carpenters Union and REALLY needs to get back to work. His unemployment ran out months ago so we're hurting right now. I'm hoping LA construction picks up soon. Are your family members in the union? Have they had any luck with jobs recently? My husband went from making almost $40/hour to NOTHING. I'm a writer and have been able to keep us afloat, but it's getting really hard.
3 years ago, I worked an industrial maintanence job San Pedro & HAD IT ALL. Great $, great pad in Redondo Beach, awesome car. ALL gone now. I get food stamps now & my unemployment is gone. Take it from me, ILLEGALS TOOK OVER & KILLED THE CONSTRUCTION/ INDUSTRIAL INDUSTRIES IN LOS ANGELES. It makes me physically sick everyday of my life. Ill give you a GREAT example of what I speak of. A few years ago, it was an INDUSRTY STANDARD that a certified electrician made 30-35$ an hour. In LA. NOW, you see ads wanting to pay 15$ an hour. Ill give ya 1 guess, as to why its like that. No certified electrician is his right mind, would EVER take that pay cut, so, they move & in their place, theyll hire an illegal to do it & that same exact snowball effect has completely taken over that whole industry. The kicker is, its NEVER gonna change because the employers freely get away with it & the profits they make, is off the charts. Those industries are OVER out here, for us legal residents. Over.
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Old 01-05-2011, 09:38 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles, Ca
2,884 posts, read 5,016,702 times
Reputation: 2725
LOL, here's one of those $200 million schools mentioned a few pages back.

prettyugly.: Central Los Angeles Area High School Number 9

"Only" a $228 million budget.
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Old 01-05-2011, 09:43 PM
 
Location: Las Flores, Orange County, CA
964 posts, read 2,275,045 times
Reputation: 572
Quote:
Originally Posted by Imoverit View Post
3 years ago, I worked an industrial maintanence job San Pedro & HAD IT ALL. Great $, great pad in Redondo Beach, awesome car. ALL gone now. I get food stamps now & my unemployment is gone. Take it from me, ILLEGALS TOOK OVER & KILLED THE CONSTRUCTION/ INDUSTRIAL INDUSTRIES IN LOS ANGELES. It makes me physically sick everyday of my life. Ill give you a GREAT example of what I speak of. A few years ago, it was an INDUSRTY STANDARD that a certified electrician made 30-35$ an hour. In LA. NOW, you see ads wanting to pay 15$ an hour. Ill give ya 1 guess, as to why its like that. No certified electrician is his right mind, would EVER take that pay cut, so, they move & in their place, theyll hire an illegal to do it & that same exact snowball effect has completely taken over that whole industry. The kicker is, its NEVER gonna change because the employers freely get away with it & the profits they make, is off the charts. Those industries are OVER out here, for us legal residents. Over.
So in three years illegal aliens moved in increased the supply of these tradesmen such that certified electricians went from $35 to $15 an hour?

It has nothing to do with the housing bubble, the construction industry tanking, and the economy in general?
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Old 01-06-2011, 01:12 AM
 
25,620 posts, read 49,274,479 times
Reputation: 19077
Quote:
Originally Posted by Charles View Post
Somebody, somewhere has probably performed an analysis of how repealing Prop 13 would impact people.

For those who have purchased in the last 10 or so years - little to no impact - they're already paying full fare.
People who purchased in the 1970s, a pretty big impact, but how many people are we talking about? 1%? 3%? 10%? I don't know (but they probably didn't complain when their kids were being educated at $8000/year per kid in government schools).

Houses are bought and sold every day, what's the average length of time a person has owned a home? It might be something like seven years, which may indicate the vast majority of people are relatively recent homeowners. I don't know, just hypothesizing.

Maybe repealing Prop 13 wouldn't be such a big deal. I hope it is repealed.
I think you are overlooking the biggest benefit of Prop 13... that is predictability in taxes with the approval of voters required to implement new taxes...

You're right, it's not really a question of how many people are still living in their untouched 1976 homes... because, until recently, property typically changes hands every 7 years and it is not unusual for a property to have undergone significant renovation/remodeling which also triggers reassessment to market value.

In my opinion, the repeal of Prop 13 would open the floodgates to huge tax increases without limits... every little and big district would propose tax increases.

The way Prop 13 is written... all that is needed is voter approval to increase property taxes... my city is very successful at this and that is why my taxes are 50% higher than Prop 13...
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Old 01-06-2011, 08:11 AM
 
Location: Las Flores, Orange County, CA
964 posts, read 2,275,045 times
Reputation: 572
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultrarunner View Post
it is not unusual for a property to have undergone significant renovation/remodeling which also triggers reassessment to market value.
I think this isn't accurate (someone chime in). I think if you remodel or add a pool, your assessed value only goes up by the amount of the improvement.

For example, Say you bought a house in 1976 for $40K and your next door neighbor just bought is house for $500K. Say your current assessed value is $150K (his is $500K). You add a $100K pool. I think your new assessed value is $250K not $500K or $600K.
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Old 01-06-2011, 08:13 AM
 
Location: Las Flores, Orange County, CA
964 posts, read 2,275,045 times
Reputation: 572
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultrarunner View Post

In my opinion, the repeal of Prop 13 would open the floodgates to huge tax increases without limits... every little and big district would propose tax increases.
Why isn't this a problem for the rest of the country?

Last edited by Ultrarunner; 01-06-2011 at 01:27 PM..
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