is stagflation already here? (Augusta, China: foreclosure, home sales, unemployment)

[dmyankee]

Originally Posted by Zarathu

Additionally we have the political group that is currently not in power but was in power for 8 long years so desperate to get back into power that they actually want the current administration to fail in any way possible, even at the expense of the voting population. Put the efforts of the media and the other party together, and we have a prolonged feeling of depression on the part of the populace. When people feel down, then they don't do much. Just listen to the tv commercials about who feelings of depression hurts.
Z

We have never, in my lifetime, had a majority of politicians hell bent on governing against the will of the people. The original trillion dollar stimulus funds were nothing more than a laundry list of 50 years of unfunded socialist ideas cobbled together by the majority in power and endorsed by Maine's twisted sisters and Representatives. They do not care about the unemployment and debt figures. They have prayed for this day for generations and will do everything in their power to thwart future attempts at undoing their plans.

Much of that printed and borrowed money sits unused, and will be spent by the current Administration as it wants, without future Congressional approval. That, my friends, is called a slush fund! It will be used to re-elect Democrats over the next couple of election cycles.

Our two Representatives to Congress have no intention of voting for any roll back of any regulation, entitlement, tax or welfare program. Chellie and Mikey need to be sent packing. The two of them are just members of the old guard and followers of the New Deal and Great Society. They are costing our following generations trillions in lost income and productivity!

Start in your own backyard. Elect common sense business people to your town selectman and school boards. Work to get a like minded individual to run for the State Senate or House, and support them! Donate money, your time, or anything else you can think of. This is not politics as usual now. We have to take the initiative and return our Republic back to the people.

Do not expect Pingree and Michaud to hold town halls and brag about how great their health care scheme will work. They will not tell you the truth about any stimulus, bailout or pork. They already have their marching orders to play down the health care and continue blaming the economy on the previous Administration. This is fact. If you don't believe me, just try cornering them. I have all their offices on speed dial and call all of them several times a week.

[maine4.us]

Teachertype....you must be my neighbor. Here (temporarily in FL) it is dead. No jobs, no outlook for jobs. The haves have and the did haves do not anymore. I look at the stock market and I see almost a 4K gain, yet when I look around, where is the money that has been made? There were 400 jobs locally available a month ago, there were 7000 applications for those 400 jobs. That is close to a 20:1 ratio

You are correct, no trucks, strip malls empty, ones half built sitting there for over a year, houses are literally a dime a dozen from years ago. When construction comes to a halt, so does much of the economy. It used to be steel, then the big 3, then construction. We have changed indicators as we have had our tail whipped by overseas, and greedy politicians, and companies willing to sell out to them.

I agree, change the politicians. I am not voting for a single name I recognize tomorrow. If I heard of them, they have too much money. It is literally going to be the lesser of the evils. A talk radio guy said he was going to have all the candidates on in the morning on the drive to work. He even said, he didn't like many of them, but it was a chance for everybody to be heard for free, at no cost. Hence the lobby money didn't pay for the "commercial."

Thanks for all the good information. I agree, Maine, and especially Washington county are probably way more equipped to live with the current situation than the rest of the country.

"I saw something the other day I thought I would never see, a politician with his hand in his own pocket."

[Mark S.]

Originally Posted by OutDoorNut

I remember that recession, too, and the one in the mid 1970's.

Of all the recessions I've experienced, this one is by far the worst.

I've never seen unemployment so high for so long.

Agreed.

While the "offical unemployment rate" (and I agree that is hardly a reliable figure) was actually higher in the early '80s than it is now, it didn't stay so high for so long. If you'll remember, back in '82 unemployment was so bad that everyone was predicting there was no way Reagan could win in '84. But unemployment started coming down and came down enough that he won by a landslide in '84.

Maybe I was just too young back then to have the proper perspective, but I honestly remember a lot more fear and pessimism back in the early '80s than now.

Not to make light of the current situation, but things have been worse. Even if unemployment is as high as 16% or 18% (which is the highest I have seen postulated for a realistic figure), that's still a long way from the joblessness during the Great Depression.

[Submariner]

Originally Posted by Mark S.

Agreed.

While the "offical unemployment rate" (and I agree that is hardly a reliable figure) was actually higher in the early '80s than it is now,

Trying to compare that era's Unemployment rate with todays is largely apples to oranges.

Was it the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate?
Or the adjusted insured unemployment rate?
or the honest numbers [which are no longer available to the public]?

... Not to make light of the current situation, but things have been worse. Even if unemployment is as high as 16% or 18% (which is the highest I have seen postulated for a realistic figure), that's still a long way from the joblessness during the Great Depression.

The last Unadjusted unemployment numbers allowed to be published were 23%.

[Mark S.]

Originally Posted by forest beekeeper

The last Unadjusted unemployment numbers allowed to be published were 23%.

Maybe I'm sheltered here in Maine, but I just have a hard time believing that. That essentially means that 1 out of 4 people are out of work in this country. Things are bad, but I don't think they're anywere nearly that bad.

[Submariner]

A massive difference lies between the raw data and after all those political 'adjustments'.

[Huckleberry3911948]

nope something much worse. 1929 deflation. we are utterly unprepared to deal with deflation. most americans think "save" is something you do in a religion or catching a cup b4 it smashes on the floor. listen to dave ramsey and you might get an idea of what we need to do.

[Mark S.]

Originally Posted by forest beekeeper

A massive difference lies between the raw data and after all those political 'adjustments'.

All raw data and adjust data aside, I'm just not seeing the reality anywhere of 1 in 4 people being out of work. Not in my community and not in the communities of friends and family across the country.

The most recent figure I've seen that seems fairly close to reality is around 16%. Some places are better. Some are worse. But I'm not seeing 1 in 4 people out of work anywhere that I know of.

But 16% is pretty freakin' bad. Certainly the worst I've ever experienced since entering the workforce full time.

[Mark S.]

Originally Posted by Huckleberry3911948

nope something much worse. 1929 deflation. we are utterly unprepared to deal with deflation. most americans think "save" is something you do in a religion or catching a cup b4 it smashes on the floor. listen to dave ramsey and you might get an idea of what we need to do.

I hope Ramsey's wrong. Time will tell.

A quick Google search will give you page after page of "experts" predicting our doom. The latest craze is a double-dip by 2011, signaling the beginning of 10 year Depression.

You can find just as many saying the worst is over, and we'll already see marked improvement by the middle of next year.

The really fun ones are those predicting the complete breakdown of society, food riots, martial law, the dissolution of the Union, etc. By next year.

So will tomorrow bring staglation, inflation, deflation, recession, depression, or recovery? All the experts have an answer. And every single one of these experts will have evidence to support their claim, and an impressive-looking resume of how many times their predictions have been right in the past. And when they are proven wrong, they always have the same answer: "Well, that's because people heeded my warning to stave off doom. The fact that I was proven wrong only proved how right I was!" That's always the way with prognosticators.

Some are honest. And some are just trying to get on the news.

But the thing to keep in mind when listening to folks like Dave Ramsey, Suze Orman, the Motley Fool, etc. is that they are trying to sell you something. Their advice, no matter how much they honestly believe it, is always tempered by the fact that at the end of the day they want your money.

[cebdark]

Originally Posted by Mark S.

I hope Ramsey's wrong. Time will tell.

A quick Google search will give you page after page of "experts" predicting our doom. The latest craze is a double-dip by 2011, signaling the beginning of 10 year Depression.

You can find just as many saying the worst is over, and we'll already see marked improvement by the middle of next year.

The really fun ones are those predicting the complete breakdown of society, food riots, martial law, the dissolution of the Union, etc. By next year.

So will tomorrow bring staglation, inflation, deflation, recession, depression, or recovery? All the experts have an answer. And every single one of these experts will have evidence to support their claim, and an impressive-looking resume of how many times their predictions have been right in the past. And when they are proven wrong, they always have the same answer: "Well, that's because people heeded my warning to stave off doom. The fact that I was proven wrong only proved how right I was!" That's always the way with prognosticators.

Some are honest. And some are just trying to get on the news.

But the thing to keep in mind when listening to folks like Dave Ramsey, Suze Orman, the Motley Fool, etc. is that they are trying to sell you something. Their advice, no matter how much they honestly believe it, is always tempered by the fact that at the end of the day they want your money.

I'd rep you for this but I can't, so I'll say good post. I've been listening to "experts" for the entire time I've been waiting for this "Good times, good times" bubble to pop. It took a little longer than the DH and I anticipated, but here's hoping that it'll truly be on the uptick soon.