Housing Bubble? Your thoughts, predictions (Portland, Lewiston: best neighborhood, sale, real estate)

[ALToons]

Hello again:

I saw in the late spring a change of the prices in houses. Mainly not by dollar amount, but in the real estate signs that all started to slowly change into NEW PRICE, PRICED RIGHT, REDUCED PRICE, I'm sure there are others, and I know all Realtors have to do is pull a house and reinstate it to give it a new MLS number so that the dropped price isn't noticed...

Anyway, when I went to YouTube, I was flooded with information about the "Housing Bubble" but this seemed to be aimed at people who took out ARM's (Adjustable Rate Mortgages) and other horrific type of mortgages (The one that increases your principal for example).

SO...

My question is this. If I was going to buy a house, and based on housing trends, when would YOU buy a house? Some say Spring 2008, some say Summer 2008, others predict 2009-2010. When will the prices of housing become at least 20-30% lower than we already see?

Or, is this something that is really for the other states and not an issue in Maine. Also note: I know lots of people may be thinking Portland south but I am talking about houses that are North of Lewiston/Auburn.

Thanks, and appreciate your input.

[corgis]

Best time to buy a house is dead winter - after you've done your homework and know the house has been on the market since the previous Spring, Winter, some time back. Nothing sells in the winter much and if a house has been just sitting waiting to be sold, a lot of times the owners will take a loss just to get out from under their house. Just my take on it. That's how we got our house in Eastport so cheap.

[399083453]

Its unpredictable. The feds could change rates, there could be a bail out of the bad mortgages, too many variables. But.... you can find deals at any time if your in the right place at the right time.

[Acadianlion]

Originally Posted by ALToons

Hello again:

I saw in the late spring a change of the prices in houses. Mainly not by dollar amount, but in the real estate signs that all started to slowly change into NEW PRICE, PRICED RIGHT, REDUCED PRICE, I'm sure there are others, and I know all Realtors have to do is pull a house and reinstate it to give it a new MLS number so that the dropped price isn't noticed...

Anyway, when I went to YouTube, I was flooded with information about the "Housing Bubble" but this seemed to be aimed at people who took out ARM's (Adjustable Rate Mortgages) and other horrific type of mortgages (The one that increases your principal for example).

SO...

My question is this. If I was going to buy a house, and based on housing trends, when would YOU buy a house? Some say Spring 2008, some say Summer 2008, others predict 2009-2010. When will the prices of housing become at least 20-30% lower than we already see?

Or, is this something that is really for the other states and not an issue in Maine. Also note: I know lots of people may be thinking Portland south but I am talking about houses that are North of Lewiston/Auburn.

Thanks, and appreciate your input.

There probably isn't much of a housing bubble in Maine. The exception is in the heavily yuppiefied southwest from Portland to New Hampshire. Still and all, remember that the population growth in Maine is miniscule compared with, say, South Florida, so speculation building is a very, very small industry. The most important number to remember is: 1.2 million people in the whole state, and if you look back on the population of Maine over the past twenty years, the growth rate is pretty much a flat line.

Now, having said that, as a real estate developer and property owner, the best time to buy a house depends on why you are buying the house to begin with. Is it a house that you are going to live in quite a long time...say, ten years or more? Is it an investment property that you are going to buy, fix up and sell in a short time...three years? Those considerations will change everything.

If you are buying to live in for a while...more than five years, then buy the BEST house you can afford in the BEST neighborhood you can afford. But buy the lowest priced house in that neighborhood. NEVER buy the most expensive house in ANY neighborhood.

If you are going to buy a house to "flip", be very, very careful. Maine is not a particularly good "flip" state. Refer above to the number of souls who live in Maine.

And one final word of advice (which is worth exactly what you are paying for it, incidentally): when you find the house you think you want, offer a rediculously low price. Low enough to make the brokers knees wobble and eyes water. Then step back and wait for the counter offer. Remember: they can't eat your face for making an offer, and most real estate is overpriced by ten to fifteen percent to begin with, and probably fifteen percent more because someone has been watching HGTV.

[woxyroxme]

Originally Posted by Acadianlion

There probably isn't much of a housing bubble in Maine. The exception is in the heavily yuppiefied southwest from Portland to New Hampshire. Still and all, remember that the population growth in Maine is miniscule compared with, say, South Florida, so speculation building is a very, very small industry.

Where I am in SW Ohio, in the second fastest growing county in the state, the housing market is coming to a dead stop. Many of the McMansions are going into foreclosure and new developments have more empty lots than completed houses and are going to stay that way for a while. I know of one electrician who works for a home builder that only sold two houses this year and he is really taking a beating, might even lose his own house.

[mainebrokerman]

a few yrs ago, it was a sellers market,,now its a buyers market,,just normal cycles,,i just checked the maine mls,,and just for today over 135 properties sold and went under contract,,i believe the average house sale in maine is around 185-190k..so, if you multiplied 135 by 185000 that equals, close to 25 million in just one day!!!and this doesnt include the fsbo's or leases (rentals)

[forest beekeeper]

Life goes on.

Some folks will run around screaming that the sky is falling, even while others are making a fortune from the same market.

When we have needed a home, we have bought homes. When we were ready to sell, we sold. We have been fortunate to have generally made out well in the process. But we have never paid any attention to the 'market'. When we had problems, it was due to the screw-ball realtor jerking us around.

We bought in 1985, in 1987, in 1991, in 1994 and in 2005.

The properties that we bought in 85, and 87, made a very nice return when we sold them each.

We still own the property that we bought in 91, it makes us a reasonable profit each month.

The property we bought in 94, we fought and fought with the realtor. Realtors kept insisting on raising the list price, and so it never sold, it sat empty on the market, empty for three years, before we finally did a short-sale. Had the realtor simply agreed to lower the price eventually it would have sold on it's own. But I was overseas and dealing with him through the mail.

Buyer's market, Seller's market, bahh.

Ignore that junk, when you find the right place and are ready to buy, then buy.

When circumstances are ready for you to sell, then sell.

[Elcarim]

Forest I sure hope you're right. We're sitting here at 2.5 weeks now with no showings, so we're a little (OK ME) I'm a little concerned. I know it's only been a couple of weeks, but I've watched the house across the street being shown 6 times as of Sunday in the same 2.5 weeks. I don't understand why ours isn't showing to the same people. They obviously see it and it's almost the same size but in better condition, so why no interest.

The realtor sent me a message today that we need to do a price reduction in 2 more weeks. I don't know what to think about that this early in the game. It's pretty discouraging.

[lynnbass]

Hi sir, I just thought I'd say to you not to be discouraged. At 21/2 weeks it's still just getting "out there". I also would not reduce the price but another way to attract attention to your property to the agents and those searching on-line is to change your write up. Any time you do that it comes up in everyones offices (realtors) and home lookers e-mail alerts that it's a "modified" listing- which is similar to the attention a new listing or price reduction would get. The other opinion I thought I'd share is that we've been doing "open houses" almost every weekend, and we've shown the house at least twenty times. No contract yet but all those people know people and who knows? Maybe word of mouth will be the actual deal sealer. If your realtor doesn't want to do the open houses, see if they mind if you do, and maybe depending on the circumstances you could renogotiate the commission? Take heart-it's not your house, it's the lousy market. One last thing is to make sure your house looks the BEST it can. I love watching the shows on HGTV about selling. They are very informative. O.K- one more thing- kitchens and bathrooms are key- if you have linoleum-spend the money and replace it. If your appliances are out-dated , again spend the money and replace them. Those two things can actually sell your house and for more than if you didn't do them. Hope it helps!

[forest beekeeper]

Originally Posted by Elcarim

... I've watched the house across the street being shown 6 times as of Sunday in the same 2.5 weeks. I don't understand why ours isn't showing to the same people. They obviously see it and it's almost the same size but in better condition, so why no interest.

Have you read the MLS write-up for the house across the road?

If folks read both write-ups, yet are only interested in the other house, the difference must be either in the write-up, or in what the realtors are telling them.