how recession-proof is maine's economy? (Portland, Lewiston: foreclosures, insurance, mortgage)

[Acadianlion]

Actually, recession is the wrong term. I am not sure what the correct term is, but it is neither recession nor depression.

What has been happening over the past few decades has been the whole sale discounting of America. The dollar has been the benchmark for all other currencies in the world. This is no longer the case. The dollar has fallen in value against EVERY other major currency in the world, and with the Fed printing money like crazy, the value of the dollar will fall further.

The price of oil is not due to scarcity so much as the simple fact that the dollar has dropped in value against the value of a barrel of oil, and thus the cost of all oil products has jumped. This will continue, since the Fed has just dropped one key interest rate on top of several others.

The majority of America's wealth, in terms of dollars, are being held by other countries. That is where the recession will come from.

Maine has a shortfall of revenue to pay its bills simply because the cost of everything has skyrocketed...literally everything, and the revenue....from taxation of all sorts, has simply not kept apace. Tourism? Don't count on it: people can't and won't always be depended upon to spend what they haven't got. Credit is tighter now than in the past decade and will get tighter still.

As a nation we are housing tens of thousands of American troops in 100 locations around the world practicing "nation building" at a time when we can't hold our own political institutions together properly. In a simple phrase: we have a military and foreign policy that we can no longer afford.

If as a people and a nation we do not stop spending more money than we can possibly earn the end result will be something far worse than a good, old fashioned "recession". George Bush's gigantic new budget is a killing stroke to the American economy. There is NO chance that his prediction that the budget will balance in three years, for there is NO source for that money to be found. We have NO industry that isn't compromised by foreign competition, and less in Maine than at any time in our history.

We will be voting for a new President soon, yet none of the so-called "front runners" are willing to discuss nor have solutions to the coming financial crisis. Ron Paul and Mike Gravel are the only candidates willing to even broach the subject, and the press doesn't follow them because they have little money to spend on media advertising. But we as citizens need to start to do a little simple addition and subtraction, and decide what kind of people we really are.

I am old enough now so that I won't be around to see the final blows, but I fear for the kind of life and basic standard of living that my grand children will have, and the sorts of decisions that they will have to make when the thirty year treasury bill is worthless to the rest of the world.

[skytrekker]

Also, if the US was not walking on economic eggs, why is the FED again slashing rates so aggressively? Is this not why we are in this mess, from too low interest rates from 2001-2004? Is the Federal reserve the slave of Wall street & the NAR?

[Acadianlion]

Originally Posted by skytrekker

Also, if the US was not walking on economic eggs, why is the FED again slashing rates so aggressively? Is this not why we are in this mess, from too low interest rates from 2001-2004? Is the Federal reserve the slave of Wall street & the NAR?

I think it is easier to placate the "big money" on Wall Street than for the President to face the nation and state that we are in serious financial trouble, and need to do some serious belt tightening.

George Bush isn't feeling the pinch, and I see no evidence that he has the faintest understanding or compassion for anyone else. It is not that he doesn't WANT to be compassionate or understanding. It is that he simply lacks the mental capacity and the basic training through his life to be those things. He is also surrounded by smart, skillful charletans who have agendas that have nothing to do with the American citizenry.

[K-Luv]

Originally Posted by Acadianlion

Maine has a shortfall of revenue to pay its bills simply because the cost of everything has skyrocketed...literally everything, and the revenue....from taxation of all sorts, has simply not kept apace. Tourism? Don't count on it: people can't and won't always be depended upon to spend what they haven't got. Credit is tighter now than in the past decade and will get tighter still.

Do research on this subject and you will see that your statement is false. The Northeast has historically been Americas corner of wealth and prestige, almost exclusively until the fifties. The best schools from prep to grad lay within this region, as well a majority of Americas hot spots for wealthy travelers.

Another thing to keep in mind is that there is a vast amount of day-trippers who drive up from Massachusetts. Raising gas prices and $20 lobster rolls hasn't slowed them down, neither will a downturn in the economy.

Also, when economists study the economy, they are looking at what was happening three, six, nine months ago to figure out what is happening today. By the time they agree that we are in a recession, we may already be on our way out of it; as was the case in the 80's.

[K-Luv]

Originally Posted by skytrekker

Also, if the US was not walking on economic eggs, why is the FED again slashing rates so aggressively? Is this not why we are in this mess, from too low interest rates from 2001-2004? Is the Federal reserve the slave of Wall street & the NAR?

The Fed is not the slave, they are the Master. In case you didn't know, the Fed is a private company that has no ties to the US government what so ever, yet they control our money. That is not conspiracy theory, but a fact. Look it up yourself.

[Acadianlion]

Originally Posted by K-Luv

Do research on this subject and you will see that your statement is false. The Northeast has historically been Americas corner of wealth and prestige, almost exclusively until the fifties. The best schools from prep to grad lay within this region, as well a majority of Americas hot spots for wealthy travelers.

Another thing to keep in mind is that there is a vast amount of day-trippers who drive up from Massachusetts. Raising gas prices and $20 lobster rolls hasn't slowed them down, neither will a downturn in the economy.

Also, when economists study the economy, they are looking at what was happening three, six, nine months ago to figure out what is happening today. By the time they agree that we are in a recession, we may already be on our way out of it; as was the case in the 80's.

Actually, I think the research should be done by you.

The simple fact is that Maine has a shortage of tax revenues, and that includes the sale taxes that "day trippers" supposedly bring to the economy. The tourism business is very important to Maine, but without a sustaining economy, when the tourism business dips...and it DOES dip...there is a shortfall of revenue for both business and the state. Since so much of Maine's economy depends on the revenue spread around by Augusta, ANY dip is felt immediately.

Talking about how great the Great Northeast is is out of date. The majority of the industry that there is in this country is NOT in the northeast. Major schools and colleges as well as major technical universities are scattered about all over the country, and New England is no longer the center of the universe and hasn't been so for several decades.

But all of that is merely an aside. The real problem that we face in this country has to do with the falling value of the dollar as a world currency. If the fall continues because the US Government continues to spend money that it not only does not have, but has NO prayer of being able to raise except by borrowing more money, then the value of the US Treasury note will drop to zero. When that happens the country will be completely owned by foreign nations who hold our debt.

While you are doing your "research", here is a question that you need to find the answer to: What happens when a person is unable to pay even the interest on his loans? That is exactly the direction that we are heading in as a Nation with continued spending and borrowing to pay for the deficits that we are racking up for the next generation to figure out.

[moughie]

Originally Posted by Acadianlion

The real problem that we face in this country has to do with the falling value of the dollar as a world currency. .

That indeed is the crux of the matter. As the Euro gains in strength, the dollar's value declines. Less and less countries now "tie" their currency to the dollar. Right now, the main investment that is helping the US economy are sovereign wealth funds. They have added an estimated $ 37 billion into our ailing economy. Without that infusion of investment, our situation would be far worse, I fear.

[skytrekker]

K Luv-

I never said the Fed was 'part of the Government' -but to say they are not influenced by the White House, or Wall Street is naive. Mr. Bernanke as was Greenspan was/has been merely a puppet of the White house and the Wall Street shills/bankers under Clinton and Bush- though Greenspan and now Bernanke are more slavish to the GOP.

After all Greenspan's hero was writer Ayn Rand- the fanatical anti socialist- who basically said that personal greed was an admirable trait. The Federal Reserve has been a non governmental entity since it was formed in 1913- but has increasingly played a political part on a chessboard in the manipulation of asset bubbles, whole sale destruction of the dollar, destroying those who save and eschew debt- while rewarding the rich, the wall street garbage and making debt the center piece of an economic 'idealogy'.

[MRVphotog]

Originally Posted by Acadianlion

I think it is easier to placate the "big money" on Wall Street than for the President to face the nation and state that we are in serious financial trouble, and need to do some serious belt tightening.

George Bush isn't feeling the pinch, and I see no evidence that he has the faintest understanding or compassion for anyone else. It is not that he doesn't WANT to be compassionate or understanding. It is that he simply lacks the mental capacity and the basic training through his life to be those things. He is also surrounded by smart, skillful charletans who have agendas that have nothing to do with the American citizenry.

Agree 100%

The Fed is not the slave, they are the Master. In case you didn't know, the Fed is a private company that has no ties to the US government what so ever, yet they control our money. That is not conspiracy theory, but a fact. Look it up yourself.

This might be true but looking at the reality of the current relationship I think the Fed is definately the slave of the stock/money/commidity markets. Benanke has basically admitted to that everytime he has spoken in the last 3 months. If the fed was really the master they would not have lowered the fed rate so much in the last 2 weeks. IMHO.

[Cornerguy1]

Extremely interesting dialogue the last few pages, but here comes the cold water.

The City Data powers-that-be prefer state forums to be restricted to state-related matters.

Discussions about economic issues on the national and international scale are probaly better suited to Politics, General US, or Finance.