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Old 07-07-2008, 09:36 AM
 
Location: South Portland, Maine
2,349 posts, read 3,526,882 times
Reputation: 1468

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So.......my oil guy today finaly gave me a lock in price of $4.40, a decent price considering where oil is at today. He even told me I could take all summer to make a decision.

He is suggesting that I gamble with this market as he feels it will have to crash. Pritty risky on his part suggesting something like that....I tend to agree with him though as we both feel that at $5 oil....especially Oil for heating....this economy will crash through the winter if it holds steady.

Just some food for thought
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Old 07-07-2008, 09:59 AM
 
Location: on a dirt road in Waitsfield,Vermont
2,186 posts, read 4,276,770 times
Reputation: 1059
I think the high price of crude has become a pretty tenuous bubble that will burst just like the housing industry crashed a year ago. Even the Saudi's are getting nervous as they are already seeing demand destruction.

The health of our economy is an inverse ratio, for the most part, to the price of energy. Experts say $40-$60 of the price of crude are from futures commodity investing...the speculators. This is the part of the price supports that can change pretty quickly.
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Old 07-07-2008, 12:41 PM
 
Location: Eastport, Maine
1,131 posts, read 1,499,653 times
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Yep, to cool some speculation, why not tax speculation profits for oil at a high rate, making it not such a great bargain. Yes, I know my retirement portfolio invests in these, but I would prefer less profits, and make oil more reasonable. The only problem is that most of the speculation or a good part of it is being done outside the USA.
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Old 07-07-2008, 05:51 PM
 
Location: Maine's garden spot
2,492 posts, read 3,094,508 times
Reputation: 2175
Quote:
Originally Posted by maine4.us View Post
Yep, to cool some speculation, why not tax speculation profits for oil at a high rate, making it not such a great bargain. Yes, I know my retirement portfolio invests in these, but I would prefer less profits, and make oil more reasonable. The only problem is that most of the speculation or a good part of it is being done outside the USA.


Well, you answered your own question/comment. The US can't control the entire speculation market. Alot of people are going to be hurt over the next year.
There is no easy single answer to the current energy problem, but it really has spurred me to get off my butt and cut my own wood. For that, it is a good thing.
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Old 07-07-2008, 08:15 PM
 
Location: Virginia ~ via Maine
63 posts, read 165,059 times
Reputation: 34
The $$ of oil and gas doesn't just affect our wallets today either. In my case, I stopped contributing to my 401k nearly a year ago because I simply had to have more money coming in so I could heat my place for the winter. I'm sure I'm not alone ... the $$ needs to come from somewhere and all the ridiculously rich oil execs certainly aren't going to help me out.
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Old 07-08-2008, 11:11 AM
 
1,570 posts, read 2,267,587 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maine4.us View Post
Yep, to cool some speculation, why not tax speculation profits for oil at a high rate, making it not such a great bargain. Yes, I know my retirement portfolio invests in these, but I would prefer less profits, and make oil more reasonable. The only problem is that most of the speculation or a good part of it is being done outside the USA.
Exactly right. London, for example, is a big oil market. Taxing US traders would only force them to move their transactions offshore.

Flycessna, if I could lock in fuel oil at $4.40, I'd jump at it. The average price in late June was $4.60. I agree that prices might drop a little later this summer, if only because we have a presidential election coming up, but historically those prices jump right back up after November. Otherwise, I don't see much on the horizon that can bring prices down appreciably $110 a barrel is the lowest I would expect this year even if everything goes hunky dory and there's a LOT out that that could push prices up, from a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico to more attacks on oil platforms off Nigeria to, God save us all, an Israeli attack on Iran.

One of the problems with physical scarcity in a commodity is that prices are extremely volatile, both up and down. If the global economy slides downhill next fall or winter, especially in India and China, prices may drop below $100 a barrel by next year sometime, but I'm not holding my breath.

Caveat: All bets are off in the event of war or economic collapse.
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Old 07-08-2008, 11:47 AM
 
Location: Virginia (soon Ellsworth)
653 posts, read 1,257,838 times
Reputation: 318
and the Olympic is over, the chinese stockpile more oil(gas) than they needed to make sure they have plenty gas during that period, they don't want to lost face in front of the whole world.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Coaster View Post
Exactly right. London, for example, is a big oil market. Taxing US traders would only force them to move their transactions offshore.

Flycessna, if I could lock in fuel oil at $4.40, I'd jump at it. The average price in late June was $4.60. I agree that prices might drop a little later this summer, if only because we have a presidential election coming up, but historically those prices jump right back up after November. Otherwise, I don't see much on the horizon that can bring prices down appreciably $110 a barrel is the lowest I would expect this year even if everything goes hunky dory and there's a LOT out that that could push prices up, from a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico to more attacks on oil platforms off Nigeria to, God save us all, an Israeli attack on Iran.

One of the problems with physical scarcity in a commodity is that prices are extremely volatile, both up and down. If the global economy slides downhill next fall or winter, especially in India and China, prices may drop below $100 a barrel by next year sometime, but I'm not holding my breath.
Caveat: All bets are off in the event of war or economic collapse.
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Old 07-08-2008, 11:53 AM
 
1,570 posts, read 2,267,587 times
Reputation: 1032
Looks like our Washington County members are on the short end of this stick!

Maine heating oil prices rise

Maine heating oil prices rise

By Associated Press
July 07, 2008 3:41 PM

AUGUSTA, Maine Heating oil prices continue to rise in Maine.

According to state energy office's biweekly summer survey, heating oil is now averaging $4.71 a gallon statewide. That's up 11 cents a gallon from the previous survey two weeks ago.

The lowest average price of $4.59 a gallon was found in southwest Maine, while eastern Maine had the highest price, at $4.84.

Kerosene prices averaged $5.12 a gallon, up 12 cents in the past two weeks.
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Old 07-09-2008, 06:45 AM
 
Location: Northern Maine
6,314 posts, read 8,183,197 times
Reputation: 4387
I locked in at $4.85 with down side protection. If it drops to $3.50 I pay $3.50. I won't be paying over $4.85 even if it goes to $6.00 or more.
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Old 07-09-2008, 07:15 AM
 
Location: Eastport, Maine
1,131 posts, read 1,499,653 times
Reputation: 1034
Just curious, do you have to contract to use a certain number of gallons? How could a fuel dealer do that if the price went to $6. We have budget billing in FL for our electric, but if the cost per KWH changes so does out budget amount.
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