Will BRAC rescue the market? (Bethesda, Frederick: days on market, foreclosures, loans)

[TuborgP]

Trying to sell a year ago all we heard was wait, wait BRAC will come to the rescue. Prices will skyrocket again as relocated employees arrive in mass. There is a shortage of houses and they will drive prices up. I was a skeptic then and becoming more of a non believer of that now. What is the current conventional wisdom?

[JaBradshaw]

^ I'm not sure how powerful it will really be because it's going to happen gradually. But it will help the market, there's no doubt about that.

[emsgoof]

To artificially raise it even more than the obscene amounts it's already at?
Many of the military members I have spoken with are already disgusted at the MD housing prices.

[mmemk]

I don't think prices will "skyrocket" per se; that said, I do think they will go up slightly and get back to the prices they were at last year or so (they've gone down a bit in the last year). I also think BRAC will help move property in that it will be easier for sellers to sell faster. I know a lot of people (myself included!) are waiting to move deliberately until the BRAC jobs come around.

[daveswife]

being from NJ and looking in MD
I am frustrated at the MD housing market
I feel it is overpriced
and in the 3 months we've been looking
we are watching home prices keep lowering
here in NJ they are starting to stabilize
so I am waiting until MD's prices are
more stable.
I see a lot of dreamers out there
how can someone ask say 375 for a 4 bed, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage
when there's 2 blocks away for a 6 bedrooms, 4 bath, 4 car garage for 399?
I think when the 399 sells for 375 houses #1 appraisal is WAY lower than asking price

[trying2moveup]

Where are you looking in Maryland - there are counties that are going to "hold their value" more steadily than others. For example, Mont. Co. They have come down but not nearly to the levels of reality that they need to be -- however, the strong economic base and its proximity to DC/Balt/No Va allow people to demand 1/2 million dollar prices on pieces of crap that are 40 years old and in some cases, have never been updated. I know because I've looked at a ton of them in the 2 months since we sold our home in Frederick.

We are looking back in Frederick because 1) foreclosures are rising and property values are declining - better deals to be made 2) Ft. Detrick's expansion and the building of a 30,000 employee Costco Distribution center are going to drive demand up over the next several years - and we plan to stay at least 5 years in this next purchase and 3) you simply get more for your $. And most of it has been built in the last 20 years and has been updated!!!

Way to go Frederick! Sorry for my momentary disallusionment with you. The grass is always greener. . . but I love you, Frederick city!

[TrippingJay]

It's interesting to view this thread almost a year later.

While BRAC will bring more jobs and people to the area, but I don't that it will cause a surge in prices. The sharp increases that Md saw in 2003-2005 were inflated to begin with and the basic problem was that house prices were rising faster than income levels. This in turn made sub-prime loans more attractive because without these, many people could not afford these houses in the first place.

I think we still haven't seen the bottom for a while now. Even property values in Bethesda and Potomac are declining, which reflects that no area is immune.

[daveswife]

I was looking in Cecil county
North East
Rising Sun
Chesapeake City

[sirbeaubeau]

My sister lives in Laurel for about six years. Right next to Ft. Meade. I remember her saying BRAC this BRAC that. Now her and her husband are just bemoaning the fact that it isn't going to improve anything. Their not military but they did get scooped up in the whole craziness of the BRAC relocation which IMHO - hasn't happened to date.

[Tim Rankin]

I can't imagine that BRAC will "rescue" the market, but it'll certainly help! Remember that Detrick is Frederick's biggest employer - any homes near Detrick will benefit a lot from the hiring of 1000 new employees. Especially with oil/gas prices slowly inching up, homes within walking/biking distance will have more and more appeal.

Also: If you take the number of homes on the market and then consider a potential of 1000 new buyers out there, it'll reduce the "days on market" numbers for the city, and to some extent, the county. So for sellers who want to move, or to sell, it'll be a great opp'y to do so. The perfect storm of a possibly "bottoming" market, historically low interest rates, and an influx of jobs/employees will create great opportunities for both sellers, and buyers.