Would Marylanders Support Dr. Ben Carson as a GOP Presidential Candidate in 2016?

[westsideboy]

Originally Posted by HandsUpThumbsDown

Absolutely right! I have no illusions about this. As I said, Dems really didn't have to take a position on this in the '08 election. By giving half answers and feel-good quotes, they put themselves in great position to take the national position as it shifted.

Some GOP members have as well (but not til after the '12 election), as we've seen in recent months ("coming out" in support of gay marriage). My point is that the days in which a candidate can equate homosexuals to child molestors and animal rapists is wayyyy over. He didn't really leave himself a ledge from which he can evolve, as opportunist dems did.

By the way, all us pro gay types were damn sure back in '08 that he'd get there. Let's go back to '08 for a moment. If a gay rights supporter is trying to pick a candidate, and it's between a guy who says a whole bunch of nice things about gays and is generally supports their rights, and McCain/that ingnorant person from Alaska (she worse than he) - who would the supporter choose?

Now let's look at '16. Let's say it's ANY Dem (they all will support gay marriage by '16) vs. Carson. We have 100% support vs. 100% opposition. With the national opinion what it is (and growing stronger in support of gay marriage, btw), how would Carson stand a chance?

Gay rights is no longer a tertiary issue. A candidate can no longer say, "hey don't worry about that, just listen to my economic plan." The GOP will have to find a moderate who has some grasp of the nation's will and who has similarly "evolved" if it wants ANY chance of victory in '16. Huntsman comes to mind.

Politics is a game of opportunists, and while there may be some who find the fact that Ben Carson has indicated he will never evolve on gay marriage admirable and "honest," there are a greater number of people who will find his position reprehensible, old-fashioned, and vile.

Good post. I agree that Carson's comments were not wise if he wishes to seek office. It is the kind of sound-bite that dooms campaigns.

I think you may be overestimating the long term appeal of gay rights issues though. I feel VERY strongly about abortion, it is a matter of life and death, not just rights, but this isn't a litmus test issue when I pick candidates to support, everyone has their position, nothing under the law really changes, except on the margin. Stalemate has been reached.

The same will happen in the next few years with gay marriage, either the courts will settle the matter and make it unversal, or bow out making it a state issue. Either way, it will be hard for politicians to make much hay over it after that on a national level.

Guns are going to be a big issue in 2014, probably much more so than gay marriage, it simply affects more people.

[HandsUpThumbsDown]

Originally Posted by westsideboy

Good post. I agree that Carson's comments were not wise if he wishes to seek office. It is the kind of sound-bite that dooms campaigns.

I think you may be overestimating the long term appeal of gay rights issues though. I feel VERY strongly about abortion, it is a matter of life and death, not just rights, but this isn't a litmus test issue when I pick candidates to support, everyone has their position, nothing under the law really changes, except on the margin. Stalemate has been reached.

The same will happen in the next few years with gay marriage, either the courts will settle the matter and make it unversal, or bow out making it a state issue. Either way, it will be hard for politicians to make much hay over it after that on a national level.

Guns are going to be a big issue in 2014, probably much more so than gay marriage, it simply affects more people.

We shall see. I think gay rights will remain an issue if married gay couples are still not allowed federal benefits (taxes, social security survivor's benefits, etc) in 2016. A lot of gay marrieds I know are reaching retirement age. They seem to think that everything is going to be ironed out this summer ... but I have my doubts.

Maybe a GOP could get away with tepid non-interest in the issue ... but outright opposition? Forget it.

[justtitans]

Originally Posted by HandsUpThumbsDown

We shall see. I think gay rights will remain an issue if married gay couples are still not allowed federal benefits (taxes, social security survivor's benefits, etc) in 2016. A lot of gay marrieds I know are reaching retirement age. They seem to think that everything is going to be ironed out this summer ... but I have my doubts.

Maybe a GOP could get away with tepid non-interest in the issue ... but outright opposition? Forget it.

I agree with the point that westsideboy was making, if that situation is settled this summer, then why would their stance on the issue really matter anymore? Quite honestly it maybe long decided. Usually the issues that become important are the unsettled ones like immigration, gay marriage and gun control. Of course if gay couples don't receive what they are looking for I can see the argument, but honestly at worse, the only thing the Supreme Court can say for gays is it's up to the states to decide so it's not like they will have much to gain from who ever is elected as President.

But with that said, I think you are over valuing the opinions of the media (which is mostly bias on this issue). It's really difficult to say how much we as a nation support or don't support gay marriage. For every place like Maryland and Maine, there is a place like North Carolina and California. I don't think we are going to ever know how much we as a nation truly stand on the issue because there are too many bias entities involved.

[HandsUpThumbsDown]

Originally Posted by pgtvatitans

I agree with the point that westsideboy was making, if that situation is settled this summer, then why would their stance on the issue really matter anymore?.

Well, as WSB said, that soundbite will stick with Carson, even if the federal law had been changed. Soundbites like that sink candidates. And don't be so sure about everything will be fixed.

Originally Posted by pgtvatitans

honestly at worse, the only thing the Supreme Court can say for gays is it's up to the states to decide so it's not like they will have much to gain from who ever is elected as President..

Um, gays have gained more under this president than they ever have. What reason would a gay person have to ignore comments such as Carson's and pull the lever anyway? And it's NO SMALL THING that gays still wouldn't be able to get federal benefits afforded to ALL OTHER married couples. A grave injustice waged by the self-righteous. This isn't an "at worse" situation. "At worse" slavery would have been decided by the states. "At worst" seperate but equal would have been decided by the states. "At worst" voting rights would have been decided by the states. Nah ... that argument is bunk. In a few years you will see that you're on the losing side. Or maybe you won't, I dunno.

Originally Posted by pgtvatitans

But with that said, I think you are over valuing the opinions of the media (which is mostly bias on this issue).

Don't insult my intelligence.

Originally Posted by pgtvatitans

It's really difficult to say how much we as a nation support or don't support gay marriage. For every place like Maryland and Maine, there is a place like North Carolina and California. I don't think we are going to ever know how much we as a nation truly stand on the issue because there are too many bias entities involved.

National polling doesn't do it for you? If you want to dismiss all the results as "bias"... then that's yours, and your party's, prerogative. But it's the GOP that will lose by ignoring facts (not like they aren't quite experieneced in that).

It matters not to me ... those who share your opinion are finally being drowned out by some sense.

[justtitans]

Originally Posted by HandsUpThumbsDown

Well, as WSB said, that soundbite will stick with Carson, even if the federal law had been changed. Soundbites like that sink candidates. And don't be so sure about everything will be fixed.

Sure it will, but it would depend on how strong a candidate he is and who he's running against, if it would actually affect him. I think it's safe to assume that yes it would probably hurt him, but how much it would is relatively unknown.

Originally Posted by HandsUpThumbsDown

Um, gays have gained more under this president than they ever have. What reason would a gay person have to ignore comments such as Carson's and pull the lever anyway? And it's NO SMALL THING that gays still wouldn't be able to get federal benefits afforded to ALL OTHER married couples. A grave injustice waged by the self-righteous. This isn't an "at worse" situation. "At worse" slavery would have been decided by the states. "At worst" seperate but equal would have been decided by the states. "At worst" voting rights would have been decided by the states. Nah ... that argument is bunk. In a few years you will see that you're on the losing side. Or maybe you won't, I dunno.

Never said, they have to ignore it. You are rolling off the assumption that gays have a majority influence on this nation. You are basing this off some polls? They never asked me, so how can someone else represent my opinion or anyone else's?? All I am saying is it's unknown how much influence gay rights will actually play especially if matters are mostly settled already.

Originally Posted by HandsUpThumbsDown

National polling doesn't do it for you? If you want to dismiss all the results as "bias"... then that's yours, and your party's, prerogative. But it's the GOP that will lose by ignoring facts (not like they aren't quite experieneced in that).

It matters not to me ... those who share your opinion are finally being drowned out by some sense.

No because it's not scientific. Polls are just a way to manipulate numbers. You are not going to get accurate numbers from polling places because the assumption is made that every person getting polled represents every sector of voters in this country. That just isn't realistic. There are people with all types of beliefs that are either from from their religion, their experiences, or their upbringing. You won't find two people who think exactly alike, much less 1000 or may even a million. If you want accurate results you get a census, otherwise, it's just misleading information.