Theory Shattered: Low Democratic Voter Turnout Was NOT Why Larry Hogan Won the Governorship! (Baltimore: 2014, home)

[AeroGuyDC]

Many initial analyses followed the meme I attacked before the election — “it’s all about turnout,” they argued. A New York Times headline summed up the consensus: “Drop in Democratic turnout was the difference in the Maryland governor’s race.” The Baltimore Business Journal (“Low Democratic turnout propelled Larry Hogan to victory in Maryland governor’s race”) and other outlets echoed that lesson.

We now know it’s not true.

McDonald notes that, while turnout in Maryland was lower among Democrats than among Republicans, with 54.5 percent of the actual electorate consisting of registered Democrats, Brown could have won without a single vote from a Republican or an independent.

Moreover, using a post-election Washington Post/University of Maryland poll, he shows that Hogan would still have won if the turnout had matched recent midterms — from 2010, or from 2006, or from 2002.

Registered Democrats still made up 54 percent of actual voters, while just 32 percent were Republicans.

Even with the turnout in a presidential year with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, Brown would have lost if he bled Democrats and Republicans the way he did in 2014.

Mellman: What really happened in Maryland | TheHill

Water under the bridge? Not a chance! The November 2014 election shows that Maryland Democrats can, and will, cross party lines when liberal/progressive policies track too far to the left.

Maryland elected officials should take note!

[North Beach Person]

They should but they won't. Just look at the just concluded Legislative Session, the majority carried on just as if Brown had been elected.

I don't agree with all of Hogan's proposals, specifically not giving the State employees their 2% raises, but the Legislature and the local school systems, especially, have to realize that the money just isn't there.

Once again the Legislature raided the Retirement system, which is going to cost even more down the road. They've taken it from fully funded to critical in 8 years.

Full disclosure is that I am a beneficiary of the Retirement System.

[MrRational]

Originally Posted by AeroGuyDC

The November 2014 election shows that Maryland Democrats can, and will,
cross party lines when liberal/progressive policies track too far to the left.

All in all? A big Meh.

The November 2014 election shows that in the absence of a decent candidate...
many Maryland Democrats can will stay home and some will vote for a tolerable alternative.
Then there are the independents.

The D's again proved their machine, run amok, is their own worst enemy.
Don't read more into it than that.

[AeroGuyDC]

Originally Posted by MrRational

All in all? A big Meh.

The November 2014 election shows that in the absence of a decent candidate...
many Maryland Democrats can will stay home and some will vote for a tolerable alternative.
Then there are the independents.

The D's again proved their machine, run amok, is their own worst enemy.
Don't read more into it than that.

A "big meh?" Are you kidding? Independent's sprung for Larry Hogan in massive numbers. Democrats, in large numbers, sprung for Hogan. If that's not a lesson for Maryland elected officials, then I don't know what is.

PS....as outlined in the OP...low turnout was NOT the reason Hogan won. So Democrats sitting home is wholly irrelevant.

[MrRational]

Originally Posted by AeroGuyDC

A "big meh?" Are you kidding?

Nope.

PS....as outlined in the OP (and linked article)

And a more garbled jumble of never making a coherent point words I've rarely seen.

Hogan was a better candidate than Ehrlich.
Brown shouldn't hold any office.

[bufflove]

Of course low turnout in liberal strongholds was key. Baltimore, PG, and MoCo all had the lowest turnouts in the state (mid to high 30%) while conservative districts turned out, on average, above 50%. That gap being so large is clearly why Hogan won. It's basic math and common sense. Hogan ran a good campaign and turned out his supporters; Brown ran a terrible campaign and no one bothered getting out of bed for him. Hence why Brown won every single poll/statistical survey, but then lost the election. None of this is news to anyone, except that opinion writer, apparently.

[Cruzincat]

Originally Posted by MrRational

Nope.


And a more garbled jumble of never making a coherent point words I've rarely seen.

Hogan was a better candidate than Ehrlich.
Brown shouldn't hold any office.

Hogan and Ehrlich were not running against each other nor a common opponent. Brown lost for the Democrats.

In 2018 it could be interesting. If the Democrats run anyone but a white male candidate, Hogan will have the best chance to gain a second term. Let's face it. The Democrats are not totally devoid of racist or sexist attitudes within their party. The record of KKT and Brown show that.

[AeroGuyDC]

Originally Posted by bufflove

Of course low turnout in liberal strongholds was key. Baltimore, PG, and MoCo all had the lowest turnouts in the state (mid to high 30%) while conservative districts turned out, on average, above 50%. That gap being so large is clearly why Hogan won. It's basic math and common sense. Hogan ran a good campaign and turned out his supporters; Brown ran a terrible campaign and no one bothered getting out of bed for him. Hence why Brown won every single poll/statistical survey, but then lost the election. None of this is news to anyone, except that opinion writer, apparently.

You apparently did not read the article. This is not an "opinion" piece. You should be embarrassed for flaunting your ignorance....especially when the material is right there one click away.

Ghitza’s data also indicates turnout was not the malefactor.

Yes, Democratic turnout dropped 8 points from four years ago, when Martin O’Malley was reelected overwhelmingly as governor, but Democrats made up just 2 percent less of the total electorate in 2014 than they had in 2010, with Republicans rising by 2 points. Registered Democrats still made up 54 percent of actual voters, while just 32 percent were Republicans.

What part of that did you not understand? Embarrassing!

[North Beach Person]

Originally Posted by bufflove

Of course low turnout in liberal strongholds was key. Baltimore, PG, and MoCo all had the lowest turnouts in the state (mid to high 30%) while conservative districts turned out, on average, above 50%. That gap being so large is clearly why Hogan won. It's basic math and common sense. Hogan ran a good campaign and turned out his supporters; Brown ran a terrible campaign and no one bothered getting out of bed for him. Hence why Brown won every single poll/statistical survey, but then lost the election. None of this is news to anyone, except that opinion writer, apparently.

But, when someone mentions the dominance of those three jurisdictions in state affairs, the answer will always be, "They have the most people".

The reality is that 30% of Montgomery County is still way more people than 50%+ of Calvert, Charles and St. Mary's (to use those as an example) combined.

My guess, because I don't feel like looking, is that high 30% in Baltimore, Prince George's and Baltimore City is still more than 50% in the rest of the State put together.

[bufflove]

Originally Posted by AeroGuyDC

You apparently did not read the article. This is not an "opinion" piece. You should be embarrassed for flaunting your ignorance....especially when the material is right there one click away.

Of course it's an opinion piece. It's clear as day that it's an opinion piece and it's filed under "Opinion" on the website. I'm the ignorant one??