Subject to 3rd party approval (Oakland: sale, how much, houses)

[TeamBenya]

Originally Posted by 1973 Forced Busing

Here is all the data from 8/14/05 till the 7th of this month.
Shall we go over it line by line together? Or would you rather spin it solo?

If you'd like to go over it line by line, I'd be more than happy to, but it sounds like an excercise in futility, and I think we both know that.

I don't understand why you feel the need to be so venomous about my "spin", as you call it.
Have I said home values are falling? Yes.
Have I said they're about to rise? No.
Have I said that you need to buy now? No.

I'm not holding a gun to anybody's head forcing them to buy a home, nor am I trying to spin the markets problems into a positive situation, because it's not. At no time have I tried to be misleading about the facts regarding the market, period.

The numbers you're illustrating show the same thing I've written about it in my own blog. Market devaluation. It's happening, and we both agree on that, correct?

I'd like to understand where you feel I'm so grossly off base, and how you feel that I'm trying to "spin" information to be misleading. I try very hard to avoid being "that guy" who sends out bad information, so if I am, I would welcome your suggestions as to how I am misrepresenting the market.

I will freely admit I cannot speak as a Realtor in Washington, D.C.. I am not licensed in D.C., and I am not experienced in their sales market, so the housing market in that region is a bit different from my own. "Your Mileage May Vary" (YMMV), as they say. I specialize in the Southern Maryland area (Charles County, St. Mary's, Calvert), so my experiences in value drops are considerably different than you would find in D.C.

As a good example of that, consider this: The average median sales price in Charles County (My home county and my primary source of sales) is currently $315k. At the peak of the market, it was $350k (source). That would be a 10% drop in value from the market peak. I'm not claiming that your 17% figure is wrong, it's just a different market from my own and YMMV.

[TeamBenya]

Originally Posted by 1973 Forced Busing

A history of NAR estimates,

Recent NAR estimates of annual existing home sales:

12/11/2006 - 6.40 million units.
Lereah "Most of the correction in home prices is behind us."
02/07/2008 - 4.9 million units.
Thanks to "Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog"

Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

You're absolutely right. The NAR has been nothing but WRONG regarding their projections for quite some time now. The spinsters at NAR are desperate to put this is a positive light, but a polished turd is still a turd. I don't agree with it, but I'm also not their policy maker. Being a member of a trade organization does not mean I have to agree with them, I think that would be considered communism, correct?

[TeamBenya]

Originally Posted by 1973 Forced Busing

Your team didn't put any money in that house. Who you trying to play?

Sir, I have tried to be respectful here, but I would find it highly unlikely that you have any first-hand experience with the home that you're talking about. I guess there's 2 viewpoints here

A) You're right, my "Team" hasn't put a dime into it. That's very true. The fact is, my "Team" does not own it and never has. It belongs to my father, who's in the construction business, NOT the real estate business. If my team owned the home, it would be listed in the tax record as owned by an LLC, NOT an individual

*or*

B) Regardless of the technical ownership, you have no direct knowledge with what has or has not be spent on the house or it's condition, currently or formerly.

Either way you want to look at it, I'm sorry you feel the need to be slanderous. If you would like to bad mouth people, that's your right, absolutely. Why not do it with direct knowledge of the situation, rather than from assumption?

I'll make you an offer: I will meet you down in Southern Maryland for lunch, my dime. From there we can go over to the house in question and you can view the property first hand, inside and out.

If there's been no renovation work in it as you claim, I will publicly apologize to you here in this forum, and you'll never have to see another post from me on here again.

If you're wrong, then all I ask is that you discontinue making slanderous statements about me and my family.

What do you say? I'm covering for lunch and all it resolves this disagreement, so what do you have to lose?

Originally Posted by 1973 Forced Busing

And your "buy now" crap doesn't hold water either.

Whoa, easy there! I'm not claiming people need to "buy now"! Not in the least! In fact, I've publicly stated before that if you can wait out the market, that might not be a bad idea, so please don't start claiming that I've said otherwise.

What I HAVE said is that people should look at all angles, because EACH AND EVERY PERSON has a different reason, background, and situation. I do believe that there are some situations where it makes more sense to buy than rent, and I think that people need to evaluate that on their own individual basis, rather than accept a mob mentality.

Originally Posted by 1973 Forced Busing

Also that housingtracker website clearly shows 25th, median and
75th prices have dropped like a rock in the last 2.5 years.

25th Median 75th
02/07/2008 $265,900 $365,000 $519,000
09/07/2005 $369,000 $499,000 $699,900

Not to mention the inventory increase
Inventory
02/07/2008 11,381
09/07/2005 4,636

You're right, and as I've stated many times, housing will continue to fall. I've written entire articles on why we aren't about to see the bottom yet!

Originally Posted by 1973 Forced Busing

Telling people to buy something that will be worth much less in two years is evil!

That's a terribly barbed thing to say, and I wish I understood why you're so venomous towards me. Believe it or not, there are very smart values out there, and very good potential purchases to be made. I've been the first to say that 95% of the market is overpriced. and an overpriced home will be a good way to loose money.

HOWEVER, I do see deals where homes are purchased with 95%-100% financing made. The home is then turned into a rental unit and the rent more than covers the mortgage, and even puts a little coin back in the owners pocket. Most homes aren't priced this way. But for the ones that are, why WOULDN'T you buy it?

AGAIN, most AREN'T priced this way. but SOME are. if you can pay the same amount or nearly the same amount on a mortgage as you do on rent, you should be buying in my opinion. If you're going to be moving in the next 2-4 years, this probably does not apply, I agree.

I just think there's lots of factors to consider. If you buy for the same monthly payment as your rent, you're actually saving money because of the deductions you can take on the interest, right? Now if you plan on selling in 2 years, you would save more money by renting, so don't buy. If you plan on living there for 5+ years, then why not take the extra tax breaks and the LONG TERM value growth by purchasing.

1973, it's obvious you understand all the ins and outs of the financial details, and that's great, everyone should be as knowledgeable, but many people do not realize the benefits I mention and the pitfalls you're pointing out, so what's wrong with explaining how the financial details work?

I apologize for splitting hairs here, but I understand that we are both trying to express a point that we're obviously passionate about. I don't think that our opinions are so far apart as you make it, but our vantage points of the situation are RADICALLY different.

As I stated earlier, consider the lunch invitation genuine. I've met with other people who are very anti-real estate right now, and I think it's good that there are people being vocal about all sides of the issue. It does disappoint me that you seem to think I'm some sort of miscreant, so if you would like to chat in an adult fashion about your concerns and view first hand our point of contention, you're more than welcome to come meet.

[1973 Forced Busing]

The communist manifesto written by Karl Marx is based on the teachings of Jesus Christ that no man is greater than the next. Needless to say he would have nothing to do with the NAR. By the way those states are for the DC METRO AREA

[1973 Forced Busing]

So, you just got the home for 7% LESS by waiting. Good for you! You're going to pay an extra 6.5% EVERY MONTH because this house was cheaper. Why? Because you weren't looking at the rate. What happens if you don't want to/can't stretch an extra $200/mo? Well, you're going to have to find a smaller house for less money in order to be able to buy. If you had bought the home when it was more expensive, you would have been able to afford it.

[TeamBenya]

Originally Posted by 1973 Forced Busing

So, you just got the home for 7% LESS by waiting. Good for you! You're going to pay an extra 6.5% EVERY MONTH because this house was cheaper. Why? Because you weren't looking at the rate. What happens if you don't want to/can't stretch an extra $200/mo? Well, you're going to have to find a smaller house for less money in order to be able to buy. If you had bought the home when it was more expensive, you would have been able to afford it.

1973- It was a single hypothetical situation, not a blanket statement that everyone should buy now, but rather an example that people need to look at the whole picture; What's wrong with considering multiple factors?

[vanyali]

Not everyone who is looking to buy a house right now is stupid, or making a bad decision, and Benya isn't evil for helping people who want to buy homes do so. It all has to do with people's particular situations and expectations. Not everyone buys a house with debt, not everyone needs the place to appreciate, any many, many people need a place to live regardless of what this or that market is doing.

And Benya's point about the effects of changing interest rates was correct, though that doesn't necessarily mean (and he doesn't claim) that rates are about to shoot up or anything.

Besides, anyone who would blindly go out and buy a house because of what some realtor said on some message board is someone with more problems than we on this board are really equipped to address. And by the way, anyone reading this who thinks they fit that description, I have a bridge to sell you too.

[1973 Forced Busing]

The key difference between us is my view point is driven by exposing the truth, your is driven by profit! Therefore you compromise yourself and your view.

[markablue]

Please stick to discussing ideas, everybody, no personal arguments here.

[b_rush]

Originally Posted by markablue

Please stick to discussing ideas, everybody, no personal arguments here.

Thanks, Dude. Let's get back on track and quit the hatred on this post.