City-Data Forum Is there a statistician on board ? (North Beach: crime, statistics, beach)
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01-06-2018, 09:31 AM
 608 posts, read 400,878 times Reputation: 444

I am looking for a statistician who can figure out a probability. What I am looking at is a theory that compassion at times exceeds reason. Let me present the problem. An individual goes to court on his 12th change. He pleads with court not to incarcerate him saying he recognizes his mistakes and promises not to repeat them. A compassionate judges grants him probation with some reluctance. The RAND CORPORA -TION has estimated that for every crime committed and has gotten caught for is one tenth of the crimes the person has actually committed. In the area the person resides there is a 70% recidivism rate for criminals. What is the probability that this person will commit another crime ?

01-06-2018, 10:02 AM
 Location: North Beach, MD on the Chesapeake 32,131 posts, read 39,212,961 times Reputation: 40590
Well you know Abraham Lincoln said to never trust statistics you see on the internet.

01-06-2018, 10:24 AM
Quote:
 Originally Posted by debold4215 What I am looking at is a theory that compassion at times exceeds reason.
What exceeds reason at times are the abusers of compassion.
And to some degree a tolerance for the abusers acts.
Currently that abuse is exacerbated by the far too high number of potential abusers.

Quote:
 The RAND CORPORATION has estimated that ... (what they're) caught for is one tenth of the crimes the person has actually committed.
This is not a new theory.
There may even be unpolluted data to back it up too.

Quote:
 What is the probability that this person will commit another crime ?
If they are returned to the same area they're from without changes happening during the interim?
It's gonna be pretty high. That's what recidivism is all about.

Last edited by MrRational; 01-06-2018 at 10:33 AM..

01-06-2018, 12:01 PM
 1,645 posts, read 1,464,406 times Reputation: 1882
Quote:
 Originally Posted by debold4215 In the area the person resides there is a 70% recidivism rate for criminals. What is the probability that this person will commit another crime ?
Umm...7 out of 10?

01-06-2018, 02:34 PM
 Location: Mid-Atlantic 22,724 posts, read 21,779,470 times Reputation: 27792
Quote:
 Originally Posted by bufflove Umm...7 out of 10?
Sounds good to me.

01-06-2018, 02:41 PM
 13,831 posts, read 4,093,613 times Reputation: 5067
6 of 1 ,half a dozen of the other!

01-06-2018, 02:57 PM
 4,943 posts, read 4,649,237 times Reputation: 9191
Quote:
 Originally Posted by North Beach Person Well you know Abraham Lincoln said to never trust statistics you see on the internet.
No, it was Ben Franklin.

01-07-2018, 01:00 AM
 Location: Mid-Atlantic 22,724 posts, read 21,779,470 times Reputation: 27792
Quote:
 Originally Posted by P47P47 No, it was Ben Franklin.
Are you sure it wasn't the French guy?

01-07-2018, 10:03 AM
 608 posts, read 400,878 times Reputation: 444
Quote:
 Originally Posted by North Beach Person Well you know Abraham Lincoln said to never trust statistics you see on the internet.
I like that !

01-07-2018, 10:05 AM
 608 posts, read 400,878 times Reputation: 444
Quote:
 Originally Posted by P47P47 No, it was Ben Franklin.
I thought it was Louie Pascal
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