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Old 01-06-2018, 09:31 AM
 
608 posts, read 400,878 times
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I am looking for a statistician who can figure out a probability. What I am looking at is a theory that compassion at times exceeds reason. Let me present the problem. An individual goes to court on his 12th change. He pleads with court not to incarcerate him saying he recognizes his mistakes and promises not to repeat them. A compassionate judges grants him probation with some reluctance. The RAND CORPORA -TION has estimated that for every crime committed and has gotten caught for is one tenth of the crimes the person has actually committed. In the area the person resides there is a 70% recidivism rate for criminals. What is the probability that this person will commit another crime ?
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Old 01-06-2018, 10:02 AM
 
Location: North Beach, MD on the Chesapeake
32,131 posts, read 39,212,961 times
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Well you know Abraham Lincoln said to never trust statistics you see on the internet.
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Old 01-06-2018, 10:24 AM
 
Location: The Triad (NC)
26,875 posts, read 57,924,091 times
Reputation: 29302
Quote:
Originally Posted by debold4215 View Post
What I am looking at is a theory that compassion at times exceeds reason.
What exceeds reason at times are the abusers of compassion.
And to some degree a tolerance for the abusers acts.
Currently that abuse is exacerbated by the far too high number of potential abusers.

Quote:
The RAND CORPORATION has estimated that ...
(what they're) caught for is one tenth of the crimes the person has actually committed.
This is not a new theory.
There may even be unpolluted data to back it up too.

Quote:
What is the probability that this person will commit another crime ?
If they are returned to the same area they're from without changes happening during the interim?
It's gonna be pretty high. That's what recidivism is all about.

Last edited by MrRational; 01-06-2018 at 10:33 AM..
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Old 01-06-2018, 12:01 PM
 
1,645 posts, read 1,464,406 times
Reputation: 1882
Quote:
Originally Posted by debold4215 View Post
In the area the person resides there is a 70% recidivism rate for criminals. What is the probability that this person will commit another crime ?
Umm...7 out of 10?
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Old 01-06-2018, 02:34 PM
 
Location: Mid-Atlantic
22,724 posts, read 21,779,470 times
Reputation: 27792
Quote:
Originally Posted by bufflove View Post
Umm...7 out of 10?
Sounds good to me.
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Old 01-06-2018, 02:41 PM
 
13,831 posts, read 4,093,613 times
Reputation: 5067
6 of 1 ,half a dozen of the other!
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Old 01-06-2018, 02:57 PM
 
4,943 posts, read 4,649,237 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by North Beach Person View Post
Well you know Abraham Lincoln said to never trust statistics you see on the internet.
No, it was Ben Franklin.
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Old 01-07-2018, 01:00 AM
 
Location: Mid-Atlantic
22,724 posts, read 21,779,470 times
Reputation: 27792
Quote:
Originally Posted by P47P47 View Post
No, it was Ben Franklin.
Are you sure it wasn't the French guy?
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Old 01-07-2018, 10:03 AM
 
608 posts, read 400,878 times
Reputation: 444
Quote:
Originally Posted by North Beach Person View Post
Well you know Abraham Lincoln said to never trust statistics you see on the internet.
I like that !
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Old 01-07-2018, 10:05 AM
 
608 posts, read 400,878 times
Reputation: 444
Quote:
Originally Posted by P47P47 View Post
No, it was Ben Franklin.
I thought it was Louie Pascal
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