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Old 10-21-2019, 12:04 PM
 
Location: Frederick, MD
50 posts, read 34,862 times
Reputation: 124

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Digger 68 View Post
The entirety of Maryland is in the 33-40% chance of warmer than average temps, which means we have a 60-67% chance of it being an average (or colder) winter. So, not at all a confident assessment.

I take these winter outlook forecasts with a grain of salt. Every time they happen to get it correct here and there, (some) people will go on to cherry pick these instances as proof that they always make accurate predictions.
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Old 10-21-2019, 03:40 PM
 
Location: Cumberland
6,308 posts, read 10,137,008 times
Reputation: 5151
Quote:
Originally Posted by KelpJuice View Post
The entirety of Maryland is in the 33-40% chance of warmer than average temps, which means we have a 60-67% chance of it being an average (or colder) winter. So, not at all a confident assessment.

I take these winter outlook forecasts with a grain of salt. Every time they happen to get it correct here and there, (some) people will go on to cherry pick these instances as proof that they always make accurate predictions.
Oh, it doesn't matter when you have to drive to Frostburg. A warmer winter means ice storms, a colder one means snow.
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Old 10-21-2019, 10:24 PM
 
2,346 posts, read 1,638,617 times
Reputation: 1308
Quote:
Originally Posted by KelpJuice View Post
The entirety of Maryland is in the 33-40% chance of warmer than average temps, which means we have a 60-67% chance of it being an average (or colder) winter. So, not at all a confident assessment.

I take these winter outlook forecasts with a grain of salt. Every time they happen to get it correct here and there, (some) people will go on to cherry pick these instances as proof that they always make accurate predictions.
I don't think everything that is a prediction based on science is always accurate more than anything said on this site.
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Old 10-22-2019, 06:19 AM
 
Location: Frederick, MD
50 posts, read 34,862 times
Reputation: 124
Quote:
Originally Posted by Digger 68 View Post
I don't think everything that is a prediction based on science is always accurate more than anything said on this site.
My doubt in their accuracy was referring to both predictions made based on science, like the NOAA map, as well as those based on observations of nature, like some posters have discussed. And anyhow, I wasn’t specifically targeting you.
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Old 10-22-2019, 08:47 AM
 
Location: Howard County, Maryland
14,211 posts, read 8,101,530 times
Reputation: 31324
Quote:
Originally Posted by westsideboy View Post
Oh, it doesn't matter when you have to drive to Frostburg. A warmer winter means ice storms, a colder one means snow.

I was in Allegany County on business a few years back, and I was riding with my contact there from Cumberland up to Frostburg. She said that the winter weather changes abruptly, from relatively mild in Cumberland to full-on winter in Frostburg, and that there is a noticable dividing line along I-68, located at Vale Summit Road. Is this true?
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Old 10-22-2019, 09:05 AM
 
Location: Howard County, Maryland
14,211 posts, read 8,101,530 times
Reputation: 31324
Quote:
Originally Posted by westsideboy View Post
February 5–6, 2010 North American blizzard (Snowmageddon[10])
Ugh, don't remind me. My long driveway was at the dead center of the bulls-eye of that storm. Those 38.3 inches took many, many hours to clear, and that's with a powerful snow blower at my disposal. I actually didn't possess such a machine, but my next-door neighbor did. However, her husband had recently divorced her and moved out, and she wasn't able to manage the big, hulking machine on her own. So we made a deal: she would provide the machine and the gasoline, and I would provide the manpower to clear both of our driveways. I think it was a win-win for both of us.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Februa...zzard#Snowfall
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Old 10-22-2019, 10:29 AM
 
Location: Cumberland
6,308 posts, read 10,137,008 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bus man View Post
I was in Allegany County on business a few years back, and I was riding with my contact there from Cumberland up to Frostburg. She said that the winter weather changes abruptly, from relatively mild in Cumberland to full-on winter in Frostburg, and that there is a noticable dividing line along I-68, located at Vale Summit Road. Is this true?
Yes, that is generally true.

Cumberland's weather is no worse than Hagerstown or Frederick in an average year. We are in a deep valley and have a small urban heat island effect + we are in the rain shadow of the Allegheny Front so less moisture makes it through.

The dividing lines are roughly: Red Hill just west of LaVale, this is where the snow starts. Vale Summit Rd, or Clarysville is about where the snow starts to pile up. Eckhart School another steep 1.5 miles up the road is the start of "Frostburg" proper weather, and it keeps getting worse as you head up Main St. towards Savage Mtn.
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Old 10-23-2019, 10:42 AM
 
Location: Maryland
4,643 posts, read 6,859,767 times
Reputation: 5235
This weather is great!

I do agree about the acorns: the squirrels in the city have been going ~*nuts*~, and I rarely in my life can remember so many acorn shells littering the grounds and sidewalks. I joke with my spouse that the squirrels know something we don't.

As for whether it will be a harsh winter, I don't really consider winter weather in most of Maryland to be harsh, but I grew up in the Midwest where much more snow and colder temperatures were far more common for a much more prolonged period of time than here...
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Old 10-24-2019, 08:23 AM
 
2,346 posts, read 1,638,617 times
Reputation: 1308
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maintainschaos View Post
This weather is great!

I do agree about the acorns: the squirrels in the city have been going ~*nuts*~, and I rarely in my life can remember so many acorn shells littering the grounds and sidewalks. I joke with my spouse that the squirrels know something we don't.

As for whether it will be a harsh winter, I don't really consider winter weather in most of Maryland to be harsh, but I grew up in the Midwest where much more snow and colder temperatures were far more common for a much more prolonged period of time than here...
That's what keeps me from moving there. You will still sweat your ass of in much of the midwest, or plains states in the summer just like here, and freeze it off in the winter.
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Old 10-24-2019, 11:37 AM
 
Location: Maryland
4,643 posts, read 6,859,767 times
Reputation: 5235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Digger 68 View Post
That's what keeps me from moving there. You will still sweat your ass of in much of the midwest, or plains states in the summer just like here, and freeze it off in the winter.
Not sure about the plains states, but at least where I grew up in Illinois, and where I've also lived in Wisconsin, they were both more pleasant than here in the summer. Summer here is my least favorite season, but I think basically October through May here is great.
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