when to buy??? (Baltimore: 2010, mortgages, refinance)

[day1yun]

I find myself in a situation where I'm ready to buy a home any time now but I also don't want to get screwed over. Money magazine predicted a 12.9% drop in home prices in the DC/Baltimore area from May 2008 to May 2009. When do you all think would be the best time?

[DLK]

My belief is the best time to buy is when you've found the home you want.

If you read the reports in all the magazines and websites, you'll get conflicting predictions. No one predicted the market would be where it was today so how can you trust it otherwise?

Even if the market did decrease between now and whenever, the interest rates will rise for sure. Now is when the "perfect storm" is hovering.

[lscalder]

Interest rates are on the rise.
I think now is the time to buy.

[gumbo31]

I'm aiming for this winter.

[Marylandsailor]

INterest rates are almost at their historic lows. Rates are sure to rise as the federal reserve tries to shore up the dollar and guard against inflation. I wouldn't be surprised to see 7 percent mortgages soon and 8 percent next year. Find the house you like, buy it and live in it. Forget about the house as an investment. Those days are gone for now. Just my 2 dollars.

[Gabrielle]

Marylandsailor, I would have to respectfully disagree with you about interest rates being at historic lows. While adjustable rate mortgages may be low, 30-year fixed rate mortgages are climbing higher and higher every day. We were hoping to refinance our fixed rate mortgage, but the current rates are much higher than our original rate. Usually credit unions are a great place to find an affordable fixed rate mortgage, but our credit union charges 6.75% for a 30-year fixed rate with no points.

[PenguinSix]

It depends a bit on where you want to buy. If you are looking out in Loudoun or Prince William or some of the others areas that have had massive growth and now have an excess inventory, well maybe you can wait a bit. But if you are looking in a closer in (inside the Beltway) area that is as built out as it can get, then the prices have not fluctuated as wildly and growth is predicted to continue.

There was just something on WTOP News about this this morning. You might want to check their website.

[TeamBenya]

The interests rates are the concern right now. two months ago you could have gotten 5.5-5.75, and now you're looking at 6.25-6.75 for the same note. I don't expect that to fall anytime soon, so I would suggest considering where the rates are likely to be should you wait before making a decision on timing.

[TuborgP]

Originally Posted by DLK

My belief is the best time to buy is when you've found the home you want.

If you read the reports in all the magazines and websites, you'll get conflicting predictions. No one predicted the market would be where it was today so how can you trust it otherwise?

Even if the market did decrease between now and whenever, the interest rates will rise for sure. Now is when the "perfect storm" is hovering.

Shiller/Case have been right on target predicting the tumble and following the fall of. They also predicted and were right on target with the dot com bust. A lot of people (including me) saw it coming based on their prognosis and that of others. I was able to get out when the getting was good. Shiller and Case are very well respected economist. That being said their outlook for Baltimore-DC area is a minimum of a 20% fall from top to bottom. How much has the market dropped thus far where you are looking? A 20% average means 25% in some areas and maybe only 15% in another close by. The difference is schools and the demographic stability or change of the neighborhood. I would suggest you do research on Shiller/Case as their monthly report is near and dear to the news media and financial analyst. Look at the chart in the following link and tell me if now is the time for you to buy for the betterment of your assets?

Case Shiller Futures Suggest 2010 US Housing Market Bottom :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website

[TuborgP]

Please find attached a piece regarding Robert Shiller and his 2000 thoughts on the stock market.
The speculative frenzy is comparable to periods during which the stock prices peaked (measured in terms of price-earnings ratios) in 1901, 1929 and 1966, says Shiller. It simply is not likely to last. And though he is careful not to say when he expects the fever to break, he is clear that lie expects it within the next few years.

He wrote that in 2000 about the stock market. He has been right on about the housing market and does anyone want to say his advice about their regional housing market is wrong?

MONEY magazine: Irrational Exuberance by Robert J. Shiller - Jan. 25, 2005