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[TuborgP]

Hopefully the buyers who bought at Januaray 2008 prices are not comparing their price with January 2009 or what Case/Shiller think it will be in 2010. I know the folks who bought my house along with houses of my neighbors have a house that is comping for 100k less. I do hope they are happy and can stay there a long time. At least with stocks you can liquidate when you want. They thought they were getting a deal then compared to prices a year earlier. Time taught them something else.

[AlicynD]

Stocks you can liquidate when you want but the value of them may go down around the time you need to use that money. For example, today some people have lost a majority, if not all, of their retirement in stocks and 401Ks and they had their money there for 20+ years. I don't know of many people who have owned a house for 20+ years and have "lost" - unless of course they took way too much money out of the house. A lot of people build their wealth on real estate, but you have to be willing to own your property for at least 5 years. I believe I heard that Donald Trump does not play the stock market.

[TuborgP]

Originally Posted by AlicynD

Stocks you can liquidate when you want but the value of them may go down around the time you need to use that money. For example, today some people have lost a majority, if not all, of their retirement in stocks and 401Ks and they had their money there for 20+ years. I don't know of many people who have owned a house for 20+ years and have "lost" - unless of course they took way too much money out of the house. A lot of people build their wealth on real estate, but you have to be willing to own your property for at least 5 years. I believe I heard that Donald Trump does not play the stock market.

The people who bought 20 years ago did so in normal times when housing appreciated 3-4% a year and not 20% a year. We are now making up for excess gains and will be doing so until the housing market bottoms out. My point about liquidity is that if you see the stock market going down and think that will continue you can sell at that point and cut your losses. If you are like most people and think the housing market is going to continue to fall you can't sell because there are not enough buyers and for the last year people have been watching their equity sink. Something is wrong in housing when 1 in 6 are upside down on their mortgages and that percentage is only going up. Are these people happy? How long will they have to wait until the value of their depreciating asset stops falling? How long will they have to wait until they stop going deeper in debt. Yes debt if what you owe is more then your house is worth. If when we hit bottom the market has fallen 25-30% how many years will it take for it to get back to what they paid? How many people can actually afford to buy a house in the expensive Maryland with today credit constraints? How many people can actually afford a 600K house and put 10% down, 20% down without selling their previous house and making a profit. Oooops there goes profit when you sell unless you purchased how many years ago? Or put down how much money when you did? If it is money you put down it is not profit but is equity unless you lost that also.

We have had similar conversations before and some of those were a year ago.

[tonyc]

Originally Posted by TuborgP

When realtors said that two years ago has time proven them correct. A year ago when they said that has time proven them correct? Is this now the magic moment?

The magic moment looks like it be 3 1/4 2010. I sold a rental unit in 2005 for 3 times what I originally paid, I know the poor guy is upside down now. I wouldn't buy this year - I'd wait it out.

[TuborgP]

Originally Posted by tonyc

The magic moment looks like it be 3 1/4 2010. I sold a rental unit in 2005 for 3 times what I originally paid, I know the poor guy is upside down now. I wouldn't buy this year - I'd wait it out.

And that is the problem. Knowing when the market has hit bottom. Very few buy at the bottom or sell at the top in any market. If you do so it is usually luck. You took your profit on the way up while if you had waited a bit longer you could have sold for the same amount of the way down. Somewhere in between was the peak but you did well and that is the big thing. Being upside down in an asset you can't liquidate is tragic. Gotta believe that is comparable to a margin call for a stock you own that is now 80% of what you paid for it and you bought 600K worth.

[TuborgP]

Moody's Economy.com - House Price Forecasts, Case Shiller Weiss
Moody's Economy.com suite of services for businesses with exposure to real estate and real estate-backed asset markets allows you to:

•Monitor near-term housing activity across all metros;
•Identify supply and demand imbalances;
•Isolate regional bubbles;
•Plan for contingencies using baseline and alternative forecasts

A good resource to ask your realtor about and to see if they are using objective metrics to base their advice on.


The following is a good data starting point on a variety of topics. If you are hiring a professional in any of the related fields they should be well verse in the topics contained in the link. In this economy expert advice begins with applied metrics.
http://www.dataplace.org/web_data_links.html#Market

[tonyc]

Thanks for the info

In my sale situation I sold at the peak I think, the end of 2005. I find it hard to believe that it would of gone up anymore. It was a TH built in the late 70's, so it was maxed. What I'm thankful for is that I didn't take that equity, sell my current house, and combine the profits from both and purchase a 1.1M house. in 2007. I was seriously considering it.. I would of been so so pissed. Thank god I'm cheap.

I'm done with buying houses in this area. The next one will have to be somewhere warmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

[TuborgP]

Originally Posted by tonyc

Thanks for the info

In my sale situation I sold at the peak I think, the end of 2005. I find it hard to believe that it would of gone up anymore. It was a TH built in the late 70's, so it was maxed. What I'm thankful for is that I didn't take that equity, sell my current house, and combine the profits from both and purchase a 1.1M house. in 2007. I was seriously considering it.. I would of been so so pissed. Thank god I'm cheap.

I'm done with buying houses in this area. The next one will have to be somewhere warmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

We sold in Maryland retired and paid cash in North Carolina. You got out at the peak we sold at about 95% of peak and are more then happy.

[eandasmom]

Hi,

I recommend Ellicott City, Howard County, Columbia, MD (different areas are nicer than others) or Catonsville, Baltimore County. They all have excellent schools and are highly rated as good places to live. I live in Catonsville with our two boys. Contact Emilie Christiansen with Long and Foster, she's a good realtor in Columbia.

[Pilgrim21784]

Depending on where in Columbia you need to commute to, you could even look further north into upper Howard or Carroll county - where I live - many of our neighbors have worked in Columbia, its not a bad commute. I second the recommendation re: Ellicott City or Catonsville; both have some very nice areas.