Before we get too alarmist here, it might be helpful to look at the data from the U.S. Census Bureau's State & County QuickFacts websites. Though Fairfax does have a higher median income, in 2007 Montgomery County and Fairfax had a similar number of residents living below the poverty level at 5.1% and 4.9% respectively. The Examiner is looking at tax returns, which can be affected by a number of factors. You had to file a tax return in order to get your stimulus check last year, so many people who aren't required to file did so to claim their money. This appears to be a bogus statistic to me. I recall a number of reports that overall tax return volume was up last year. Also, more illegal immigrants may be filing returns now that it has been publicized that doing so will not put them at risk for deportation.
Fairfax does have a larger overall population, but Montgomery County has grown faster in the past eight years, showing an 8.9% population change versus Fairfax's 4.7% change in the same period. It can take time for local governments to catch up budget-wise and public works-wise to adjust to rising populations. The Examiner article looks only at the flow of MD residents in and out of Mont. Co. It does not take into account residents of other states -- even VA -- who move to Mont. Co.
Looking at the quality of life reasons that Ike Legget believes are driving the affluent from Montgomery, he mentions traffic and housing values. There is
no mention of crime or poverty. The two citizens quoted at the end of the article cite the attitude of the populace and increasing urbanization as reasons they feel the quality of life in MoCo is decreasing. Fairfax is significantly more dense (looking at census data) than MoCo and is therefore subject to the same traffic and urbanization issues.
In terms of jobs, Fairfax has Tysons. It takes years to develop a workforce center like that, and it tends to happen organically. Fairfax has also had a higher concentration of large prime contractors for a longer period of time. Proximity to the Pentagon and federal buildings in NoVa probably has a lot to do with that. Post 9/11, the contracting industry has only grown along I-66 and the Dulles Toll Road. Unless you can convince DoD to locate more of its resources to MoCo, this will not change. When you look at the major employers in the entire metropolitan area, they are the government, contracting, law firms, non profits, and associations. Major law firms will continue to be primarily in DC, and, as mentioned above, government and contracting aren't going to budge from VA. It's not as if MoCo has done something to scare these businesses out of MD. In no way that I can see does Fairfax's success mean that MoCo is going downhill. Montgomery is, however, dedicated to building up its biotech corridor in Gaithersburg; this is an emerging local industry that VA does not have.
As for future development, MoCo has a number of smart growth in plans for specific areas of the county. The Planning Commission website is wonderful. Check it out here:
Montgomery County Planning Department. Also, the purple line, Montrose Parkway, the Intercounty Connectro, and I-270 improvements will go a long way to help congestion. Fairfax will be getting the silver line and HOT lanes, but their plans aren't quite as extensive.
As for crime, we have seen a recent year-on-year jump from January 2008 to January 2009. However, it is a recession, and this is to be expected. Take a look at the Washington Post article here:
Montgomery Faces 7.7% Increase in Major Crime - washingtonpost.com. Later statistics, cited in this post:
http://www.city-data.com/forum/maryl...ontgomery.html show crime dropping in the first quarter of this year. Much more telling as to whether an area is "going downhill" are trends for five and 10 year periods of time. Also, 60% of the robberies mentioned in the first
Post article were occurring in Wheaton; this hardly represents a county-wide phenomenon.
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Why has Montgomery County Let itself go downhill
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