2010 Gubernatorial Race. MD GOP dead? (Baltimore, Frederick: sales, daycare, attorney)

[cpterp]

I thought that now would be an appropriate time to start the discussion on next years race for governor, especially since I've been seeing many articles in the Post on the subject (I'll try to be as objective as I can ). A common theme in those articles is how Maryland's GOP is one of the weakest in the country and is in terrible shape. The party is extremely cash-strapped and devoid of any serious leadership and organization. This on top of the fact that Maryland was named the 3rd most liberal state in the country (after Massachusetts and Hawaii).

The MD GOP's woes:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/09/22/AR2009092204024.html?sid=ST2009092300236

State GOP Granted Installment Plan to Repay Steele - Maryland Politics - News and notes from the Maryland political scene.

Pelura Mum As State GOP Officers Plan Monday Meeting - Maryland Politics - News and notes from the Maryland political scene.

Maryland: More Blue than New York or California? - Maryland Politics - News and notes from the Maryland political scene.


Former one-term governor Bob Ehrlich has yet to put himself in the running for governor. As explained in the articles the MD GOP has yet to provide opponents for other MD races such as Senior senator Barbara Mikulski's seat.


However, the GOP does seem to be finding some success in this years two gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. New Jersey is traditionally a Democratic state, and Virginia is a traditionally Republican state although the last two governors were conservative Democrats, plus the state narrowly voted for Obama.

Here's a look at some of MD's numbers:

[nospin]

Vote for Glenn Beck. He is the only one that can save this troubled nation with all it's China debt!

[North Beach Person]

Ehrlich may or may not run, rumors are running that his wife, Kendall, may challenge John Leopold for Anne Arundel County Executive.
Ellen Saurbrey is becoming the choice for state Party Chair(wo)man. Republicans are having great success at the County level in Southern and Western MD, along with the Shore. Calvert County seems to have a permanent "R" majority on the County Commisioner level along with Sheriff and State's Attorney.

[KeyserSoze]

Maryland Republicans dominate outside the 95 corridor. Problem is, they're competing against two large metros so they're tremendously outnumbered. New Jersey has a solid Republican sector, mainly the shore & Northwest New Jersey, but it's still a solid Democratic state. Virginia has a large rural/religious-conservative population to offset its urban areas/black population, and is a politically moderate state.

A state that's ruled by one party for too long is never good. Luckily, Maryland has DC, and is thus "protected". Imagine what the state would be like if it wasn't there.

[cpterp]

Originally Posted by KeyserSoze

Maryland Republicans dominate outside the 95 corridor. Problem is, they're competing against two large metros so they're tremendously outnumbered. New Jersey has a solid Republican sector, mainly the shore & Northwest New Jersey, but it's still a solid Democratic state. Virginia has a large rural/religious-conservative population to offset its urban areas/black population, and is a politically moderate state.

A state that's ruled by one party for too long is never good. Luckily, Maryland has DC, and is thus "protected". Imagine what the state would be like if it wasn't there.

This is definitely true, but even once rural/conservative areas are seeing large numbers of heavily Democratic migrants. Charles County surprisingly voted for Obama by a significant margin and Frederick, Calvert, and Anne Arundel Counties were virtually split in half almost exactly. Half of the counties on the Shore only gave him single digit margins. However in Central MD, Carroll County is the last true Republican county, with Frederick and AA ready to tip over to blue. Western MD (especially Alleghany and Garrett Cos.) is by far MD's strongest GOP stronghold, and will probably always remain that way due to its unique isolation from the rest of the state. Maryland's only GOP congressman represents W. MD.

Now, here is the 08' election map of Obama's 5th best state in terms of margin-of-victory:


Kent County (the small blue one on the upper Shore which borders the DE county sharing its name) seems to be an anomaly, even though it was as 50-49 split, and this is from a county that is 80% White (the lower counties have significant Black populations).

Something else interesting I found out today: Out of all 3,000 counties in the country (not counting DC), Prince George's County was Obama's best in terms of M-O-V.

[KeyserSoze]

Originally Posted by cpterp

This is definitely true, but even once rural/conservative areas are seeing large numbers of heavily Democratic migrants. Charles County surprisingly voted for Obama by a significant margin and Frederick, Calvert, and Anne Arundel Counties were virtually split in half almost exactly. Half of the counties on the Shore only gave him single digit margins. However in Central MD, Carroll County is the last true Republican county, with Frederick and AA ready to tip over to blue. Western MD (especially Alleghany and Garrett Cos.) is by far MD's strongest GOP stronghold, and will probably always remain that way due to its unique isolation from the rest of the state. Maryland's only GOP congressman represents W. MD.

Now, here is the 08' election map of Obama's 5th best state in terms of margin-of-victory:


Kent County (the small blue one on the upper Shore which borders the DE county sharing its name) seems to be an anomaly, even though it was as 50-49 split, and this is from a county that is 80% White (the lower counties have significant Black populations).

Something else interesting I found out today: Out of all 3,000 counties in the country (not counting DC), Prince George's County was Obama's best in terms of M-O-V.

You compare results in red counties from 2008 to the previous two elections, and you'll notice the race was very close in a lot of red counties across the nation.

Charles County to my understanding has always been a solid Democratic county before the mass influx, due to it having a large Black population. However I see Frederick & Calvert(exurbs), & Anne Arundel(military presence) staying red for the forseeable future. In terms of county-level government, Frederick and Calvert still remain solidly Republican, and AA would be more moderate/to the right. Kent County's the only blue county on the shore due to an influx of people moving there. On a county level, I'd say it's gonna be a long time before it becomes a Democratic stronghold -- if it ever does.

Meanwhile, the city of Baltimore, PG, & Montgomery will continue to remain solidly blue, while Howard & Baltimore counties will remain blue -- just not as overwhelmingly.

[jkyj1976]

Just moved to MD... and I am not looking forward to elections... GOP currently has no shot what-so-ever... There just so many people who blindly elect Democrats year in, year out. I agree that it is healthy to have parties be accountable to the people. Otherwise, party in power will start ignoring the needs of the people and do their own thing. Why should they listen, when they know no matter what they do, they will be elected anyways. One has to just look at DC and Marion Barry. Enough said.

[trickymost]

Originally Posted by jkyj1976

Just moved to MD... and I am not looking forward to elections... GOP currently has no shot what-so-ever... There just so many people who blindly elect Democrats year in, year out. I agree that it is healthy to have parties be accountable to the people. Otherwise, party in power will start ignoring the needs of the people and do their own thing. Why should they listen, when they know no matter what they do, they will be elected anyways. One has to just look at DC and Marion Barry. Enough said.

I disagree. I think the GOP has a real shot.

The political situation in MD is potentially explosive, which is to say, the Democrats are between a rock and a hard place. They are going to be forced to cut programs their constituents favor or rely upon very heavily (school aid, daycare aid, housing aid, food aid, healtchare aid, etc, eliminating state jobs held by the lower and middle classes). They may even need to do this in parallel to enacting taxes, but not through property or income taxes, but through fees (like on gasoline sales), sales tax, tolls, and the other costs which would be borne primarily by the low and middle classes.

O'Malley, as much as I dislike him, seems to recognize he is in a lose-lose situation, and appears ready to take the high road and make all the fiscally responsible decisions for Maryland so he can say he did the right thing should he ever wish to seek some form of public office again.

All the Repubs need to do is sit back and let the frustration boil over into anger, and it should be easy to ride the wave of discontent to the state house.

[westsideboy]

It is hard to imagine a GOP candidate winning the governor's race. 2002 was the perfect storm of nationwide Republican surging due to 9/11 and an obvious dolt in KKT running for the Dems. I fear we are in for another 4 years of O'Malley.

[cpterp]

Originally Posted by trickymost

I disagree. I think the GOP has a real shot.

lol Did you see the numbers I posted above?

Originally Posted by jkyj1976

Just moved to MD... and I am not looking forward to elections... GOP currently has no shot what-so-ever...

Originally Posted by westsideboy

It is hard to imagine a GOP candidate winning the governor's race.

You would be correct in that assumption, but there's nothing to "fear."I don't want to turn this thread into a political war, but I think the Dem-bashing on this thread is a little unwarranted. Ehrlich virtually screwed over Maryland in his single term, and fiscally responsible doesn't exactly describe the deficit he left for O'Malley. The GOP had it's shot at governing MD, and they blew it. Ehrlich had more skeletons in his closest, than they are in the cemetery, even more so than previous (40 years previous) Republican governor Spiro Agnew.