How do they afford it? (Lincoln, Florida: home, to buy, income)

[ogre]

Originally Posted by Bluefly

I think people still beholden to the conventional American Dream - house, yard, car for one family's best interest - get the most outraged at Northeastern housing prices. Logically, the Southeast is where people of that mindset are naturally going to be drawn because it still fosters that lifestyle.

In more urbanized regions, that American Dream has shifted away from the procreation mindset. I know in Washington, DC nobody got married before they were 30 or bought a house before 32 or 33. I suspect the American Dream is slowly shifting away from the yard / car.

To me the American Dream is--or should be--about defining your own idea of success and then pursuing that dream, rather than shallow materialism. However, the desire to own a house at all, to have your own space, is different from the blind need for a McMansion just because the society around you says that's what you're supposed to want. That desire to have even a modest home that is one's own is something basically human. Unfortunately, even that is difficult for many people in this region to manage, with Northeastern housing prices being what they are.

[Parsec]

Originally Posted by charolastra00

Do people in other places really buy houses before 30 anyway? Even in the early 90s in super cheap Georgia, my parents didn't buy til my dad was 30 and they were the youngest homeowners in the neighborhood!

I think they do. I went to college in Atlanta and about half my friends had already purchased their first home within 2-3 years of graduating college. Heck, I had my own place while I was still IN college. Now I'm 26 and my wife's 23 and we just bought a house here in Natick, Mass. It just depends on how much you make (i.e. you probably need a specialized college degree to buy a house in your mid 20's) and how frugally you live your life.

[professorsenator]

Originally Posted by Bluefly

I suspect the American Dream is slowly shifting away from the yard / car.

Not at all. What's happening is that people are shifting to parts of the country where that dream is more accessible. Hence, Massachusetts, New York, and other places have seen their populations remain stagnant or decline, while Texas, Arizona, Georgia, and other states have seen population explosions. More Americans than ever live in suburban homes with yards and drive cars. If places like Mass. don't make such opportunities available to people, other states will.

[Bluefly]

Originally Posted by professorsenator

Not at all. What's happening is that people are shifting to parts of the country where that dream is more accessible. Hence, Massachusetts, New York, and other places have seen their populations remain stagnant or decline, while Texas, Arizona, Georgia, and other states have seen population explosions. More Americans than ever live in suburban homes with yards and drive cars. If places like Mass. don't make such opportunities available to people, other states will.

I just read an article written by a researcher who sees the first signs that exurban fringe subdivisions are beginning to show the same signs that inner cities showed in the 60s, 70s, and 80s. At the same time, non auto-dependent inner city neighborhoods are increasing drastically in value and population. There's this perception that the Northeast is dying, but all the urban neighborhoods are exploding. Perhaps what is dying is the suburbs. After all, why would someone pay that much for what they can get elsewhere?

It's not a bad shift. We can't afford suburbia anymore. If everybody lived the suburban life, it would take 5-6 planets to support our 6.3 billion people. The fundamental question of whether something works is whether it would work if everybody did it.

[professorsenator]

Originally Posted by Bluefly

...At the same time, non auto-dependent inner city neighborhoods are increasing drastically in value and population. There's this perception that the Northeast is dying, but all the urban neighborhoods are exploding. Perhaps what is dying is the suburbs

The numbers indicate that the suburbs are NOT dying. Inner city neighborhoods have seen a modest rebound in population after a steep drop during the 60's-80's. Most of this growth has been among immigrant populations who cannot afford other places (i.e. the 'burbs). Once they can afford to move to the 'burbs, they very often do so. Gentrification has also occurred in inner cities throughout the U.S. But these numbers are nowhere near the same as that found amongst the suburbs of major cities across the U.S., where builders have over the past decade built millions of new homes to meet the continuous demand of countless Americans.

Population density in the U.S. is 80 people per square mile. It is 295/mile in France, and 872/mile in Japan. The U.S. could double in population and still be nowhere near the population density of France. The sky-is-falling, population doomsday folks are free to cram their family of three into a 500 square foot apartment on the 23rd floor of an inner city high rise. I, however will be at my 4 bedroom home, cooking a steak on the grill and watching my children play in the yard. Call me when your kid wants to come over.

[Bluefly]

Originally Posted by professorsenator

The numbers indicate that the suburbs are NOT dying. Inner city neighborhoods have seen a modest rebound in population after a steep drop during the 60's-80's. Most of this growth has been among immigrant populations who cannot afford other places (i.e. the 'burbs). Once they can afford to move to the 'burbs, they very often do so. Gentrification has also occurred in inner cities throughout the U.S. But these numbers are nowhere near the same as that found amongst the suburbs of major cities across the U.S., where builders have over the past decade built millions of new homes to meet the continuous demand of countless Americans.

Population density in the U.S. is 80 people per square mile. It is 295/mile in France, and 872/mile in Japan. The U.S. could double in population and still be nowhere near the population density of France. The sky-is-falling, population doomsday folks are free to cram their family of three into a 500 square foot apartment on the 23rd floor of an inner city high rise. I, however will be at my 4 bedroom home, cooking a steak on the grill and watching my children play in the yard. Call me when your kid wants to come over.

Thanks for the invite, but my kids will be in the city park playing with other children from all over the neighborhood.

You're clearly just defending your life choices here. It's a fundamental generation shift in values that is underway, supported by endless data. While it is not playing out completely yet and there is still a marked rise in suburban housing, there is also a fundamental shift in the American Dream. The result is a decreasing desire amongst younger people to even consider buying a house like their predecessors thought necessary. Check out this article, one of many:

MinnPost - Trouble in paradise: Suburbs are struggling


"The story of vacant suburban homes and declining suburban neighborhoods did not begin with the [subprime lending] crisis, and will not end with it. A structural change is under way in the housing market — a major shift in the way many Americans want to live and work. It has shaped the current downturn, steering some of the worst problems away from the cities and toward the suburban fringes. And its effects will be felt more strongly, and more broadly, as the years pass. Its ultimate impact on the suburbs, and the cities, will be profound."

Leinberger suggests that, as the pendulum swings back toward the higher-density, more urbanized lifestyles that global warming and changing preferences will dictate, many McMansion subdivisions, including some that are lovely and affluent, will lose their market appeal and become what inner-city neighborhoods became in the 1960s and '70s — "slums, characterized by crime, poverty and decay."

'No longer young, no longer trendy'
In the current issue of The Boston Review, Michael Gecan writes an essay headlined: "On borrowed time: urban decline moves to the suburbs." In it, Gecan suggests that American suburbia may have hit its high-water mark. "No longer young, no longer trendy, no longer the place to be, no longer without apparent limitations or constraints, these places, like people, have developed ways of avoiding reality."

One new reality that may hasten the demise of suburbia's excesses — especially its extravagant appetite for fuel and land — is the rise of China's economy. "The likely success of the Chinese model ... will mean that the United States will not be able to 'impose coercively upon the world its right to an extravagant way of life.' In other words, the rise of China will imply a decline in American living standards as cooperation internationally replaces exploitation."

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[houseinme]

I think right now is a great time to buy - there are tons of great deals out there. We're selling a large house with a 2 story barn for $269K. I've seen similar great deals around.

[RLCMA]

I'm a young professional and I know very few people in their 20's who own a home in MA. The ones that do own got good deals because usually a relative owned it. I can count on one hand how many people I know my age who own a home in MA. I think most young professional's in any major city rent a place or buy in an affordable suburb. I live on the Central Coast of CA now and the Real Estate out here is insane. It puts MA to shame.

[LeavingMA]

Originally Posted by RLCMA

I'm a young professional and I know very few people in their 20's who own a home in MA. The ones that do own got good deals because usually a relative owned it. I can count on one hand how many people I know my age who own a home in MA. I think most young professional's in any major city rent a place or buy in an affordable suburb. I live on the Central Coast of CA now and the Real Estate out here is insane. It puts MA to shame.

I would agree with your statement. The people around my age (mid 20's) that own homes live in other parts of the country where it is more affordable. I only know a few people my age who have been able to buy a home, a couple had help from their parents.

The people that are young and own homes up in MA are usually couples or married. Try being single and owning your own place. Meanwhile, in other parts of the country you can get a new, decent-sized place for under $200k and with less property taxes.

It will be interesting to see in the next 5-15 years what happens with the baby-boomers. Many will move out of their large homes and it doesn't seem like there will be enough buyers around to buy many of these larger and expensive homes.

[haberstroh]

I agree that it makes much more economic and environmental sense to live in a big city on top of each other. Yet the reality is that there is a lot of people that want that house with yard in the suburbs (I am one of them). And the next group trying to achieve this dream will be the "immigrants". They have lived in the cities on top of each other in a diverse neighborhood and are ready for their kids to play in a yard with maybe a pool. And if they can afford it they will.
As an interesting side note I would like to mention that the rate of homeownership is among the highest in the US (something like 76%). In Germany for instance (where I am from) it is 46%. And although Germany's towns and cities are beautiful, efficient and modern it is a huge step for a family to buy their first house and move to the fringe. Most will never be able to. (BTW this is not why I came over here...it was for love ;-))