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Old 12-04-2013, 05:38 PM
 
1,768 posts, read 3,223,181 times
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Yesterday's entry about moving from city-lifestyle and into the car-country, made me think about future of suburbs without public transportation, sidewalks that lead somewhere, and developed with last century ideas of living/working "rules". I am aware that not everyone likes city. I am not intending this to be city vs. countryside debate.

I am looking to understand better the mindset of younger people going to very unpopular lifestyle. Environmentally unpopular because of too much dependance on car(s), more heating fuels, more stuff, more unused space; socially unpopular because it is insulated, often detached from environment in which one can not move freely without a car, where neighborhood is empty except on weekends and there is very little family time; and economically unpopular because bigger house is much more expensive to keep up, family needs more than one car, needs more stuff, pays higher taxes, have more expensive commute, big yard is expensive to keep up, etc. (It was not as economically unpopular during last century when those suburban homes were proof that you have "made it").

I am listing negatives as many people will have those negatives as reasons not to venture in such lifestyle. Allure of space, safety and schools are most common reasons to venture further out.

Ma has the oldest population in the Union. Our aging population needs sidewalks, an easy access to medical care, with easy transportation, and shopping. And that is why older folks are cashing in, and leaving far-away suburbs to move closer in.

I would like to your hear opinions on suburban town's long term viability and "attractiveness" to the future buyers. I am looking at suburbs without much commercial base, or easy transportation options.
Younger generations are more and more in favor of public transportation and walkability. They seem more willing to sacrifice space for amenities. Our economy at present is notch better than elsewhere, but since nothing is cast in stone, I would worry about future home appreciation in suburbs, when potential home buyers are already saddled with much higher student debt/unstable economy than older generations. Future buyers might not want to entertain lifestyle that is expensive and time consuming. Also, there will be less young people and families. MA already has lowest under-five population. Will the future bring steady influx of people willing to move far out, and endure longer commute, high taxes, no amenities?

I ask this because it looks to me (right now), that in the next decade, condo/th/smallish single home in Brookline, Cambridge or Newton could be worth twice as much as the big home in places like Sudbury, Stow, or Harvard. What do you think? Is there a bright future/high RE prices for a places like Sudbury decade from now?

I appreciate comments.

Bellow are some interesting data on MA and aging.

The population of Massachusetts will grow dramatically older over the next two decades, with one in five residents over the age of 65 by 2030, according to a new demographic forecast.
The overall population during that time is expected to grow much more slowly than the rest of the nation, threatening to dilute further the Bay State’s political clout in Washington. The University of Massachusetts study pegs the state pace at 4.4 percent between 2010 and 2030, while the country as a whole is expected to grow by 15.6 percent.
As it shrinks in proportion to the rest of the United States, Massachusetts will also grow older. Produced by the University of Massachusetts Donahue Institute, the study projects the state population age 19 and under will decrease, from 25 percent of the population in 2010 to 22 percent by 2030.
- See more at: State population growth to slow, age - Boston.com



THE GREAT NORTHEAST

The Northeast–which excludes the city-state of New York–has been the country’s brain center since before the American Revolution. This region is home to some 41 million people, and leads the nation in the percentage of workers engaged in business services, as well as in jobs that require a college education. With average wages of $76,000, $19,000 above the national average, the area boasts a GDP of $2.2 trillion, about equal to that of Brazil.

The Northeast is one of the country’s whitest regions — Anglos account for over 70% of the population — and one of the wealthiest. In many ways, it resembles aging Western Europe in its demographic profile. The Northeast is the most child-free region outside the retirement hub of south Florida. Coupled with sustained domestic out-migration, its population growth is likely to be among the slowest in the nation in the decade ahead.
Good thing its residents are highly educated — diminishing numbers and the consequent decline in political power suggest that the Northeast may need to depend more on its wits in decade ahead.


A Map Of America's Future: Where Growth Will Be Over The Next Decade - Forbes
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Old 12-04-2013, 06:20 PM
 
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Funny, the younger people I know who live and work in Boston (I'm in the under 30 crowd as well) are still renting and some have roommates. The others who have been lucky enough to get jobs outside the city are the ones who own homes and are starting families.

Perhaps being an engineer, I have more rigid friends per say, but I have never in my life heard anyone say anything like your 1st paragraph. Sure, I have friends who are looking for jobs closer to home, or lament that they can't go out and get drunk and take the T home, but nothing like you mentioned. Seems more of a stereotype more than anything.

So much tech is moving to 95 and even 495 that towns that are commutable to that region will be fine. Even smaller cities like Lowell will be a good option for those who want the city life but not the cost of Boston.

Perhaps outside of 495 its back to the 50's but my wife is a Stay at home mother and has found a pretty large support group of moms around her age, all who stay at home.
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Old 12-04-2013, 06:42 PM
 
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It's funny that you mentioned this because it was just reported that the lower Pioneer Valley will lose about 25k people mostly due to a low birth rate (by 2030 that is).

The economic ramifications of much of this are pretty large. Around the age of 65 is when people become net sellers of homes rather than buyers (of course by then they probably own it!).

Population in Lower Pioneer Valley expected to fall as people age, according to UMass' Donahue Institute | masslive.com
Look up Datacommon by the MAPC and you'll find that the median age of people is actually pretty old around the Cape. It's a seasonal area which explains the high unemployment.

Towns and Cities need to be more pedestrian friendly and focus more on amenities for single people. Otherwise they'll just leave. Richard Florida has wrote complete books on these subjects.

The other factor with retirements is frankly people look to move to smaller houses. What I've started to see now is size is now inverting relative to price. So a larger home might actually be cheaper to buy (not live in) than a smaller one. It is hard to justify the value of a larger home given how volitile the energy industry has been.

I remember reading some piece of demographic data that if you factored out immigration from abroad that the northeast has had a negative population growth for 20 years. If this the case then a more lax immigration policy and issuance of green cards to say immigrants that receive a masters or above might be able to stem the tide. But that in itself does not balance the state as most of the population is on the eastern side. Perhaps telecommutting with offices on the west might but this is hard to say en masse.
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Old 12-04-2013, 06:46 PM
 
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Heh, I almost listed the lower pioneer valley as an area I felt was going to get hit hard form demographic changes. It's not near as many jobs as say, northern middlesex/worcester county, yet the RE prices are on par. I grew up out there but I doubt I would move back. I enjoy being on the ex-burbs of Boston. Its actually more rural in some areas, but you can be in Boston and the coast much quicker for recreation.

Plus, its not like Hartford is on the up and up either.
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Old 12-04-2013, 06:50 PM
 
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There will always be a market for these homes in the suburbs (although it may not be robust), because the many of the people who grew up there will not want to leave their family and friends, and they are unwilling to experience a different lifestyle. Many of them will simply live with their parents until they can afford a home of their own. This seems to be the standard operating procedure where I live (Long Island).
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Old 12-04-2013, 06:57 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Morris Wanchuk View Post
Funny, the younger people I know who live and work in Boston (I'm in the under 30 crowd as well) are still renting and some have roommates. The others who have been lucky enough to get jobs outside the city are the ones who own homes and are starting families.
I wouldn't say that's lucky as even Zuckerberg was renting his house for a number of years while at Facebook. Housing might have made sense when jobs were stable and did not require significant traveling or run the risk of being outsourced. Now it is. Few if any people actually are going to live in the same place for 30 years. A generation ago an address was linked to a area to receive deliveries as well as a phone number and reception of tv. Now none of those are true.

I know of businesses that say they are in boston only when their clients show up. They have someone from the north or south shore show up to an office they rent temporarily for the week or half week and make it "look" like they operate out of Boston. In reality they are located in a totally different area.

Funny you mention engineers and 495 as I know someone that takes it from the southeast to northeast every day probably 50 miles each way.

At the end of the day people want to work where the money is and then live where it is the cheapest. Affluent areas have to deal with the traffic of those that cannot afford to life there. San Francisco is an obvious example but so is NYC.
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Old 12-04-2013, 07:59 PM
 
Location: 42°22'55.2"N 71°24'46.8"W
4,848 posts, read 11,761,500 times
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The basis for your argument is that all jobs are located in Boston, which simply is not true. If a young person had a job in Westborough, how likely is it that they will want to live in Boston and commute to Westborough 5 times per week? The infrastructure in Boston proper is pretty much at 100% capacity, so places like Waltham and Burlington are seeing much higher commercial development than Boston. The commute from Sudbury/Stow to Waltham/Burlington is comparable to the commute from Newton to Boston. Even I-95 is already at over 100% capacity during rush hour so it wouldn't surprise me if we start seeing another "tech boom" out by 495 like we saw in the 80s and 90s. Like you said, there will always be people who prefer small town over city life. I believe the nationwide preference is split 50/50, so I don't think there will be any negative effect on the desirability of suburban living.
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Old 12-04-2013, 08:21 PM
 
Location: Camberville
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I'm in the under 30 crowd, and the younger people I see buying houses ARE buying them in the suburbs. That said, they only buy there because that's what they can afford as starter homes. The more urban areas are popular, but their popularity prices average earners out. You see it in renters as well. Many renters at my suburban employer live with roommates in the city, but you can tell when they are in a financial place to live alone because that's promptly when they escape to the suburbs. I'm a year or two off from that transition and can tell you that I'm looking at towns like Maynard to rent in because of the jazzy town center and young culture. I don't feel that in, say, Woburn or Acton.

One thing that really helps Massachusetts is that so many suburban towns do have true town centers, sidewalks, accessibility to buses, and easy accessibility into the city. Having grown up in a development in the suburbs of Atlanta, I did not realize that was possible. I had 4 other developments within a mile of me, but because there were no sidewalks or even a bus route, I couldn't get to my friends in the subdivision down the street without my parents driving me because it was simply not safe. Everything was very decentralized so there was no center location for community engagement. Here in Mass, many suburban towns are expansions of towns from the 1700s with the old town green and downtown setup. It doesn't feel as stereotypically suburban as many areas of the country.

Towns that will probably struggle to hold their value are the towns with no center. That said, if the area is affluent enough with excellent schools (like Weston), you're not going to see that impact. I'm also hoping to see a bit of a revival in cities like Haverhill or New Bedford which could help build up "new" suburbs.
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Old 12-05-2013, 05:56 AM
 
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As child care has become so expensive, I have seen more families tightening belts and going back to a one salary home. This also erodes future purchasing power, but those folks are a lot happier.

The 128 corridor is a cesspool for pedestrians/public transportation and there are businesses having trouble recruiting the youngest college-aged generation because they do not want to drive or walk to eat in such a pedestrian-unfriendly environment.

If we get a carbon tax, you might see a big change in housing dynamics.
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Old 12-05-2013, 06:09 AM
 
Location: RI, MA, VT, WI, IL, CA, IN (that one sucked), KY
41,938 posts, read 36,772,419 times
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I'm in my early 40s, and my friends that are buying (and this has been the case since late 30s) are buying in Somerville, Cambridge, Arlington, JP or Roslindale, even sometimes Medford or Malden (for price if single). If they work outside the city (very few do), then places like Maynard come into play. They want to be on the T, closer to work, and be near the cultural events.
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